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May 31st, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 31, 2022

12:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4158 to 4152, dropped quickly to 4107, rose to 4159…

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: . On Friday May 27th, the NYMO closed above zero six consecutive days and closed at +106 today, May 27th.
  2. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: On Friday, May 27th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed at the level when the SP-500 closed at 4308. The NYSE A-D Line has been leading the SP500 price.
  3. VIX: 
  4. NYSE Volume: The NYSE had three consecutive days of > 80% upside volume on May 25th (83%), May 26th (87%) and May 27th (86%)This signal is indicative of a major market bottom. Since year 1970 there have 10 of 12 signals (83%) were major bottoms that lead to new all-time highs. 2 of 12 (17%) were near major bottoms that made one more lower low and then made all-time new highs.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count has the P2-C3 low at 3810, which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. Wave minute (1) of minor 1 peaked as 5 waves at 3981. The minute (2) wave retraced to the 62% Fib at 3876. The minute (3) target is at 1.62*(1) = 4152 and hit 4158 on Friday, May 27th. For minute (4) a 23% Fib retrace is at 4093 and the SP500 hit 4107 thus far. Finally, the minute (5) target is at (5)=(1) at 4264 to complete minor 1. Major [1]-P3 initial target is at 5057 in the spring to early summer of 2023, see the daily chart.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid for the minute (4) of minor 1 wave above the minute (1) high at 3981.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “May 31st, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I rarely have CNBC on but I did during the last 30 minutes.

    Every single person who came on said with near 100% certainty that “this is BEAR MARKET Rally” They all said this is just like 2000 to 2003 and there will be many more lower lows ahead.

    The only person who didn’t agree and kept an open mind that this was just a -20% correction that will lead next to new all-time highs is Michael Santoli. Santoli is only person on CNBC worth a follow. That has been my position for a long time. Today confirmed it.

  2. pugsma said

    This minute (4) wave looks like a classic bullish ascending triangle with the a-(4) at today’s low of 4107.

    First day of June is setup to be another big push upward if my read on minute (4) is correct.

    • pugsma said

      Triangle target is 4158 + (4158 – 4107) = 4209. While this triangle target is below the wave (5)=(1) target of 4264, the move up out of the triangle can still reach the (5)=(1) target.

  3. pugsma said

    You can clearly see on the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative chart that it closed above where it closed in early May with the SP500 close of 4308. It’s a virtually certainly that the SP500 will trade above 4308 in the coming days or weeks.

    However It might occur during the minor 1 wave up and thus might need to wait for the minor 3 wave up.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  4. pugsma said

    Walter Deemer thinks we need a big upside day tomorrow to produce a 5-day Whaley Breadth Thrust and confirm the 3 consecutive 80% upside volume days.

    https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1531798601856327681?s=21&t=bFqB6qjTkiQZWt0cxM0pVA

  5. pugsma said

    While this two day pull-back to near the 23% Fib at 4093 I’d perfectly fine from a minute (4) of minor 1 wave count perspective, it’s really concerning from a breadth thrust perspective.

    Remember the 2 failed cases of 12 for the signal of 3 consecutive 80% up volume days, both failed to follow through after day 3.

    • pugsma said

      The trading day is only hour old, but if it were to close with prices here or lower, then it would be very concerning.

      • MS53 said

        is there enough in the can from 3810 to 4168 to call that much a minor 1 ?

        • pugsma said

          That would be very weak minor 1 wave with more of a 3-wave up look, which is NOT a new impulse wave but a corrective wave forecasting lower lows than 3810.

      • pugsma said

        Bear have a big opportunity today to force the alt (red) count back onto the charts and head for 3500.

  6. pugsma said

    House Keeping: I will be flying out from Chicago for short vacation from Friday June 3rd through Wednesday June 8th. There won’t be blog chart updates on those days. I’ll monitor things from the road and post comments as needed. I’ll be back into for the very important May CPI report on Friday June 10th and the Fed meeting Tues-Wed, June 14-15th.

    • pugsma said

      Before I fly out Friday afternoon I will be locking down the rest of my big gains from the long positions accumulate near 3856 and 3810. Took a little more off the table yesterday and again early this morning near 4150. While I’d like to take the rest of the gains near my minor 1 wave target at 4264, I’m not going to be greedy here.

  7. pugsma said

    So the 23% Fib retrace of 4093 has been exceed.

    The 38% Fib retrace is at 4051, which is also the now riding 13-day EMA.

    Lose 4051 and this move up is over.

    • MS53 said

      Looks like losing the 4086 pivot zone here drops us out of the up channel. Is that significant to minor 1 ?

      • pugsma said

        3981 is the minute (1) level and minute (4) must hold that level. Below 3981, minor 1 is in place at 4168.

        • MS53 said

          ok thanks.

        • pugsma said

          And like I said above wave (4) rarely retraces more than to the 38% Fib, which is at 4051 and is also the rising 13-day EMA support. Thus lose 4052 and it’s unlikely this is wave (4) of minor 1.

  8. pugsma said

    Also Closing above 4093 (swing high from May) today is important.

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