May 26th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 26, 2022
6:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3978 to 3985, rose quickly to 3945 then climbed slowly to 4075 (day’s high), dipped to 4051, rose to 4075 and closed at 4058.
Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO has formed a +DIV between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri May 19th/20th closing lows at 3900/3901. The NYMO has closed above zero five consecutive days and closed at +77 today, May 26th. This is highest $NYMO reading since June 2022 just after the C2 low at 2192).
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: There is positive divergence between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri May 19th/20th closing lows at 3900/3901. This typical of +DIV on the NYSE A-D Cumulative often occurs a key bottom. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed higher on May 25th with a SP500 close of 3978 than it did on May 17th with the SP500 close at 4092. The SP-500 should follow above 4092. Also, it’s approaching the level when the SP-500 closed at 4307. The NYSE A-D Line is leading the SP500 price.
- VIX: The VIX has formed a -DIV between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri May 19th/20th closing lows at 3900/3901.
- NYSE Volume: The NYSE had consecutive days of > 80% upside volume on May 25th (83%) and May 26th (87%). This is indicative of a major market bottom.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count has the P2-C3 low at 3810, which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. Wave minute (1) of minor 1 peaked as 5 waves at 3981. The minute (2) wave retraced to the 62% Fib at 3876. The minute (3) target is at 1.62*(1) = 4152. A 23% Fib for minute (4) is at 4086. Finally, minute (5)=(1) at 4259 should complete minor 1. Major [1]-P3 initial target is at 5043 in the spring to early summer of 2023. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 3810.
House Keeping: I’m starting my summer 4-day work weeks, which means no blog updates on Friday’s from Memorial Day (Monday May 30th) through Labor Day (Monday Sept 5th). Also, the US markets are closed on Monday, so the next blog post will be Tuesday, May 31st.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
27 Responses to “May 26th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”
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pugsma said
I just placed a summary of my thoughts on Bitcoin (BTC) and an updated chart into the 2020 Custom Chart Archive: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/
Greg Polites said
HI Steve; No alternative counts that have any decent probability? Especially the recent red count are off the table? Cheers, Greg
pugsma said
Not at the moment. I’ll re-assess as required.
Observe, assess and adjust.
TIMOTHY CREEDON III said
Has iii just been put in? Remarkable run last 48 hours
pugsma said
I think we are in v-(3) headed the (3)=1.62(1) at 4152. Then a small minute (4) to 23% Fib at 4088 early next week. Finally (5) of minor 1 to (5)=(1) at 5258.
All exactly as I laid out on Tuesday with the SP500 trading below 3981.
pugsma said
It’s very interesting the NYSE A-D Line has a good chance to close above its level when the SP500 last closed at 4308 in early May.
That would likely indicate more SP500 follow through above 4308 next week. So my 4259 target might be a little too low to end this minor 1 wave up.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354
pugsma said
My tweet just now on this NYSE A-D Line subject as a follow-up to tweet from Monday, May 23rd.
This broad market indicator gave me confidence to call the 3810 bottom last Friday
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1530249243021266945?s=21&t=zt5Tt2AXOIj0k-hUuoa3jw
pugsma said
Interesting that the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) just missed yesterday on day 10 since dropping below 0.40 and closing below the required > 0.615.
Ironically, If this move up today holds into to the close, we’ll see the ZBT > 0.615 on day 11. While not officially a ZBT trigger, That’s still a tremendous market breadth move.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21BINYBT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32123590350&a=427381773&r=1604930894355&cmd=print
pugsma said
Urban discussing the significance if the $NYMO closes above +100 today. Except for Nov-Dec 2008 failure, it’s had produced 5 mega ups!
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1530253033531092992?s=21&t=zt5Tt2AXOIj0k-hUuoa3jw
Wbart21 said
106@ close
pugsma said
The $NYSE A-D Cumulative closed above where the SP500 closed at 4308.
This minor 1 wave up should exceed 4308.
Upgraded minute degree targets within minor 1:
Wave minute( 3) = 2.23(1) is a 4256
Wave (4) 23% Fib is at 4168
Mace (5) = (1) is 4339 to end minor 1.
AT said
Nice – that is another 100 point upside just for W3 of 1 … any inputs on where you would be going 300x long ?
pugsma said
I’ve been 300% long this whole week; I discussed that last week on the 2nd dip to 3810.
Now at the close today I’ve reduced back to 200% long. I’ll likely to ride the 200% long the rest of minor 1 wave up to its termination between 4259 and 4338.
Then I’ll be 100% long or less during the minor 2 pull-back into mid-June.
Remember this is not a trading service and in general it’s not to be discusesed here. I won’t be discussing it much more going forward.
I was confident in my market bottom call at the 23% Fib 3823. I gave my technical analysis evidence. Thus I was generous and also gave my trading plan last week. We had two chances to load up long there and hopefully no one missed it.
pugsma said
One last thing (warning) I’ll say about using these 3X Leveraged Long ETF’s, they are daily priced. Thus they will have price decay over time wrt the underlying SPY, QQQ and IWM prices. Thus I use them only over swing trades of a few days to a couple weeks. And only when the long trade is heavily in my favor, as it was near the SP500 38% Fib of 3823.
pugsma said
Three consecutive 80% Up volume days!
The last times this happened (Oct 2011, Feb 2016, Mar 2020) all produced multiple-month (7 or more) bull rallies to be all-time highs.
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1530271331035537408?s=21&t=FHDTc890xtMF6mrK1ArDUQ
pugsma said
Here is the chart with 3 consecutive 80% up volume days vs the SP500, that also includes the Jan 2009 failed (oops) case. 2010 also was a successful case, along with 2011, 2016 and 2020. That’s 4 of 5 (80%) major market bottoms and new all-time highs next.
https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1530297890484133888?s=21&t=FHDTc890xtMF6mrK1ArDUQ
Jim Guthery said
Is there anyway you think we can make a new all time high before or right at mid-term elections Nov 8th, and then rollover right after? Aren’t 3 of 3’s pretty quick and violent?
pugsma said
Unlikely.
I’m actually thinking that after this sharp minor 1 rise to the 4259 to 4338 area, that minor 2 wave might be a slow bleeding down type wave (maybe a flat) that ping pongs between the 4393 and 3950 pivot until Aug-Sept.
This idea fits well with mid-term seasonality that is weak from June through Sept the very strong into the end of year.
pugsma said
The market as “sniffed out” that the Fed might be making a significant pivot in reducing the rate hikes or even pausing them by September. My scenario of strong minor 1 wave and very long weak minor 2 wave, will give this time to play out.
There will be a lot of doubts and a “wall of worry” to overcome this summer.
pugsma said
Here is the expanded listed of 3 consecutive > 80% up volume days going back to 1970.
There are 12 cases:
83% or 10 cases that followed through to new all-time highs without breaking the major low.
17% or 2 cases that made one more lower low before moving to all-time new highs.
https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1530669201127419905?s=21&t=2Q19K6PyapYyBTnOHlViNw
pugsma said
Here is the SP500 performance the next 1,2,3 months in all 10 cases AFTER the signal date (May 27th, 2022 for cases 11).
https://twitter.com/markettells/status/1530646987418132480?s=21&t=tziReX5qDI8T-Ez5qqaohQ
pugsma said
I think we should be similar to the 2010 and 2011 (P2-C1) cases that rallied to the 200-day SMA then had a deep re-test of the major low before rallying to new all-time highs.
pugsma said
Look at these incredibly bullish stats from Friday’s May 27th trigger date:
Year 1957 to Present NYSE Up Volume 3x 70% Breadth Thrust Signal.
5 days in (This Friday June 3rd) out the SP500 has and average gain of +0.5% with 27 of 39 (69%) winners. Note that +0.5% gain from Friday’s close at 4158 is at 4178 by Friday June 3rd.
1 Month (30 days) out the SP500 has and average gain of +3.7% with 27 of 34 (79%) winners. Note that +3.7% gain from Friday’s close at 4158 is at 4311 by the end of June.
3 Month (80 days) out the SP500 has an average gain of +8% with 25 of 26 (96%) winners! Note that an 8% gain from Fridays close at 4158 is at 4490 by the end of August.
https://twitter.com/quantifiabledgs/status/1531248244889731072?s=21&t=9_GXuj9-ViUvGKN2tAxUMg
Stephen Schneider said
Hi Steve,
I’m finally getting caught-up on the commentary over the last few days. Thanks so much for the guidance during these turbulent times over the last couple of months as well as for your just posted Bitcoin update. Backed-up the truck around 3950 – something I would never have done without your insights and detailed analysis! Thanks again! Stephen
pugsma said
For the 3 consecutive 80% up volume days signal, Be aware that for the 2 of 12 failed cases (17% probability) in Nov 1980 and Jan 2009, the SP500 peaked on the day of the signal or within a few days of the signal. The SP500 then went onto make a new low.
So IF there is no sustained follow through above Fridays high at 4158 over the next month, then the failure scenario is very much alive.
pugsma said
It should be note that the years 2010 and 2011 signals also produced a deep retrace more than a 62% Fib shortly after the signal date. So those were very tricky cases that caused a lot of doubt before turning around and making new all-time highs.
pugsma said
Assuming minute (3) of minor 1 ended at 4158, then the 23%/38% Fibs for minute (4) is at 4092 to 4050.