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May 23rd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 23, 2022

6:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3901, quickly hit 3949. dropped to 3909 (day’s low), then rallied to 3981, dropped to 3946, rallied again to 3982 (day’s high) and closed at 3974.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: The NYMO has formed a +DIV between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri May 19th/20th closing lows at 3900/3901.
  2. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: There is positive divergence between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri May 19th/20th closing lows at 3900/3901. This typical of +DIV on the NYSE A-D Cumulative often occurs a key bottom.
  3. VIX: The VIX has formed a -DIV between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri May 19th/20th closing lows at 3900/3901.
  4. Chart Feature: There is now a weekly gap up from 3901 to 3919. A weekly gap up can be a bullish “break away gap” if it holds.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count has the P2-C3 low at 3810, which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. The first minor 1 wave of major [1]-P3-C3 should target the 4330 area over few weeks to a month. Wave minute (1) of minor 1 may have peaked as 5 waves up today at 3981. A 38% Fib for the minute (2) wave would be at 3916, keeping the weekly gap up at 3901 open. The minor 3 of major [1]-P3 wave should make a new high above 4819 in early year 2023 and that major [1]-P3 initial target is at 5075 in the spring to early summer of 2023.
  2. The alternate (red) wave count has the major [W]-P2-C3 wave ended at 3810. The major [X]-P2 wave should retrace to at least a 50% Fib of the major [W] drop from 4819 to 3810, which is at 4315. Before the major [Y]-P2-C3 wave drops toward the [W]=[Y] target at 3306 (between the 50%/62% Fibs of P1-C3 at 3505/3191).

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

24 Responses to “May 23rd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I’ve spent a little time with the ARKK ETF weekly chart tonight and I have some entirely different thoughts on it that what I’ve shown in the 2022 CCA.

    I’ll try to get an ARKK chart update out sometime tomorrow in the 2022 CCA. Maybe Ms Wood isn’t as dumb as she looks?

    • pugsma said

      Along with BTC (Bitcoin), ARKK is the most controversial investment thesis of the past 2 years.

      There are debates on both sides calling for a bust to zero or a 10 to 20 fold increase from here.

  2. pugsma said

    Getting ready $1.6T of QT the next 1.5 years beginning in June 2022 through Dec 2023.

    The Fed will reduce the balance sheet by: $45B*3 + $95B16 = $1.655T

    How can the stock market rise during QT? Well just look at the recent period Feb 2016 to Mar 2018 as a recent example of the SP500 during $1T worth of QT. The SP500 gained from 1810 to 2872 fir for a +58% gain.

    https://twitter.com/stlouisfed/status/1528888742886375424?s=21&t=cjE4mMve3T97FDFh15c42w

  3. pugsma said

    I must have missed this key crypto news from last Friday. It looks like the long awaited Ethereum (ETH) Merge will happened in August 2022. After the ETH merge it will go from proof of work (POW) to proof of stake (POS).

    This will heavily affect crypto mining, as most profitable mining is in ETH.

    The difficultly bomb will eventually make ETH mining impossible and has already stated to reduce ETH mining profits and will get worse as we approach August.

    There are other crypto coins to mine, but they are far less profitable than ETH.

    What to Mine? https://whattomine.com/

    https://fortune.com/2022/05/20/ethereum-founder-vitalik-buterin-the-merge-august/amp/

    • Robert Warmington said

      How bearish is this crypto news from last Friday for the movement up of Bit Coin ?

      • pugsma said

        ETH going from proof of work to proof of stake has been in works for a several years and is about a year behind the original schedule for Q4-2021. It directly affects crypto mining in ETH.

        BTC is going through it’s post 3rd having (May 2020) “winter” and likely will won’t break above it’s $69,000 high until a few months before the 4th halving in March 2024. The post 2nd having “winter” after 2016 lasted over two and half years into late 2018 and saw BTC drop from $19,000 to $3,000 (-84%). A -84% drop from $69,000 is at $11,000. BTC has dropped as low as $25,000 thus far.

        • Robert Warmington said

          A while back you indicated your thought about Bit Coin moving down into the 17,000 area, before a big move up. You said that you would look into giving us a chart of this anticipated move. Thanks.

          • pugsma said

            I will look at the BTC chart again for the 2022 CCA service at some point. And I won’t use any of the proxies like GBTC that don’t tract well.

        • pugsma said

          The investors who “believe” in BTC will be accumulating here below $30,000 and won’t panic even if $11,000 arrives later in 2022.

          • pugsma said

            There is more institutional investors and high worth individual investors in BTC so that -84% drop in late 2018 will be less likely. At $25,000 BTC was down -64% from $69,000. Thus a lot bearish work post 3rd halving has been done here.

  4. pugsma said

    The SP500 just closed the Monday Gap up at 3901.

    The 50% Fib is 3896
    The 62% Fib is 3876

    • pugsma said

      So far the typical 62% Fib has held for the primary (white/green) wave minute (2) of minor 1.

      Unfortunately the 3901 “weekly break away gap” was lost today and invalidates the “giddy up” call.

      Now the SP500 has to hammer out a more classic back and fill bottom above the 3810 low.

      Bulls get no key momentum benefit until they can above 3981.

      • stevesumma said

        Do you see that as an xyz pattern to 3981?

        • pugsma said

          I see a clean 5 waves up from 3810 to 3981, as I indicated yesterday afternoon in the comments when I said minute (1) may have ended and a minute (2) pull-bank was next per the primary.

  5. pugsma said

    The SP500 closing above Fridays close of 3901 would be big win today for the bulls. Previous gap downs from the upper channel closed much lower and on the lows of the day.

    • pugsma said

      Downside volume is low and NYMO still above the zero line.

      Looks like a classic bottom process.

    • pugsma said

      20 minutes until the close.

      Today has been completely different from all the big sell-offs since the March high at 4637.

      These stubble changes are key at a sustained bottom area.

  6. pugsma said

    Investors Intelligence (Newsletter) Sentiment is washed out.

    https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1529180883114201090?s=21&t=9veZhWr3EyBQxI9GPblm0A

  7. pugsma said

    China stocks looking interesting here FXI and KWEB

  8. pugsma said

    There are only two technical analysts left (that I’m aware off) who think 3810 is THE bottom of this market for years to come (ie my P2-C3 end).

  9. pugsma said

    Overall a net positive day for the primary (white/green) wave count.

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