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May 20th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 20, 2022

6:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3900, quickly hit 3943 (day’s high), then slid lower most of the day to 3810 (day’s low), before rallying in the final hour to hit 3903 and closing at 3901.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: The NYMO has formed a +DIV between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri closing lows at 3900/3901.
  2. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: There is positive divergence between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri closing lows at 3900/3901. This typical of +DIV on the NYSE A-D Cumulative often occurs a key bottom.
  3. VIX: The VIX has formed a -DIV between the May 12th closing low of 3932 and Thurs/Fri closing lows at 3900/3901.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count has the P2-C3 low at 3810 today, right at the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3. The first minor 1 wave of major [1]-P3-C3 should target the 4315 area over 6 weeks to 2 months. The minor 3 of major [1]-P3 wave should make a new high above 4819 near years end and that major [1]-P3 initial target is at 5075.
  2. The alternate (red) wave count has the major [W]-P2-C3 wave ending at 3810 today. The major [X]-P2 wave should retrace to at least a 50% Fib of the major [W] drop from 4819 to 3810, which is at 4315. Before the major [Y]-P2-C3 wave drops toward the [W]=[Y] target at 3306 (between the 50%/62% Fibs of P1-C3 at 3505/3191).

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

41 Responses to “May 20th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. orion.colorado said

    Great 2nd mouse day! Thanks again for all the intraday comments and for the Fri post. Hope grandkid duty has been fun.

  2. pugsma said

    There have been only three, 7-week losing streaks for the SP-500 since year 1950. Last week marked the 4th.

    Notes
    1) 2 of the previous 3 went on to make it 8 straight losing weeks.
    2) 2 of 3 gained over +33% during the next 12 months (target=5188 by May 2023)
    3) 1 of 3 was flat over the next 12 month with -14% draw-down over 6 months (target=3355 by Nov 2022)

    https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1528445907758460929?s=20&t=NjYrTIVJEKJfuU25Vz-eTw

  3. pugsma said

    I mentioned on Friday, that lows that form on a Friday tend be key and long lasting. Last Friday’s low was 3810.

    The primary reason is that “gap ups” on a Monday tend to hold and become “break away gaps”

    As an example, here are the Key Monday “break away gaps” since the March 23rd, 2020 low at 2192.

    Mon 4/6/2020: 2488
    Mon 5/18/2020: 2864
    Mon 11/2/2020: 3270
    Mon 11/9/2020: 3509
    Mon 4/5/21: 4019 (this gap was just recently filled in May 2022)

    • pugsma said

      So, not only do the bulls want to see 3810 hold as a key low, but they want the 3901 gap up from Friday to hold.

      • pugsma said

        3901 gap up still holding after the drop to 3909 and run up to 3951.

        The 3950 pivot is acting a resistance today.

  4. pugsma said

    FYI, this morning I’m working on the TSLA chart update for the 2022 CCA Service members.

    I’m curious how many TSLA owners there are here. I bought my Model S, 75D in August 2019. It’s been an awesome commuter car for trips around Chicagoland and short (120 mile) road trips to West Layfayette, Indiana. And now with Gas prices near $5 per gallon, the $10 in electricity it takes to charge up for a 250 mile ride is a great savings vs the $62.50 gas cost for a 20 mpg car for the same 250 mile trip.

    • Robert Warmington said

      Thanks for the update … I’m with you on TSLA

    • William Waggoner said

      Model Y since late 2020. Looking forward to your TSLA update. Thanks.

      • pugsma said

        I really like the looks of the Model Y. I had my name on the original Model Y wait listed but dropped it and opt’ed for the Model S.

        I still have my name on the Cyber Trunk, Tri-Motor list. I’m hoping to get called on that by year 2024. 🙏

        • Jim Guthery said

          I have my name on Cyber Truck Tri-Motor as well, I was hoping to get called in 2023

    • Kenneth K said

      maybe in 2 years, just purchased a new car for my daughter so I am broke.

    • Rob King said

      I am an early Tesla Model 3 owner! Love it. I have had a great experience. Considering trading in for a new Model Y.

  5. pugsma said

    If you have never been to the Indy 500 find a year to go.

    My alma mater Purdue is celebrating a 100 year association with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They just put out this cool 1 minute video.

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1528745054013112322?s=21&t=ThZ5yEC9u73hFuxC31ttRQ

  6. Joe Schmid said

    Steve, thanks for all of the great work on tracking the possible end of P2-C3! When have a chance, an update on BTC/ETH (or GBTC) in the custom chart archive would be much appreciated.

  7. pugsma said

    Everyone should be watching the broad market, NYSE A-D Line Cumulative this week.

    Last week it put in a +DIV wrt the SP500 new low.

    Now this week it is challenging the high made when the SP500 closed at 4091. Thus, it’s leading the SP500 and if it closes above that level, the. the SP500 will likely follow above 4091.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  8. pugsma said

    Note that the 15-min and 60-min chart down channel top line comes in around 4000 today at the close. This line has held three times (4512 on 4/21, 4308 on 5/5, 4091 on 5/17) since March 29th peak at 4637.

  9. pugsma said

    After my “Giddy Up! market call before the close on Friday at 3901, you can now you the potential “break away gap” at 3901 as the stop loss area for long positions on the SP500. You’re welcome! 🙂

    • pugsma said

      Below 3901, things would get dicey again for lower lows that 3810 in the short-term (wave count not shown, yet).

    • pugsma said

      And those that bought SP500 with my on May 12th, 2012 around the 3858 low (when I stated that I went 200% long) are now in the black again. 3901 is important level for the long positions taken on May 12th and any new ones taken from May 20th.

    • pugsma said

      These weekly “break away gaps” can be very powerful IT to LT trend changes and they should be respected. If it closes, then it’s wrong!

    • pugsma said

      If you bought on my Friday “Giddy Up!” congrats!

      If you didn’t, you’ll have to chase or wait for minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 to peak and minute (2) wave pull-back. No signs of that yet…

      • pugsma said

        The first mice (May 12th buy at 3858 area) and second mice (May 20th 3810 to 3901 area) and locked and loaded!

      • orion.colorado said

        Thanks for the further insights. I have relayed as much to my troop of 2nd mice.

  10. pugsma said

    There are clean 5 waves up from 3810 to 3981. We’ll see if that’s for minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3.

    A 38%/50% Fib pull=back for minute (2) is at 3916/3896. 38% Fib would hold the 3901 weekly gap up.

    I’d like to see minute (1) extend higher that 3981 later today into Tuesday to give the weekly gap up some extra cushion for the minute (2) wave.

    • pugsma said

      The absolute shallowest pull-back for minute (2) would be 23% Fib at 3942. Just hit 3946.

      • pugsma said

        That would be awesome if that was it for minute (2) of minor at 3946.

        Next stop (3) = 1.62 at 4223 !

        • pugsma said

          Let’s have a “lock out rally” to punish the bears and the scared bulls who didn’t buy the last two dips at 3859 and 3810.

          • pugsma said

            I see the bears and scared bulls on Twitter already saying don’t worry it’s about to turn down at the upper channel line again.

            But this time it’s likely different and Tomorrow the SP500 gaps up again over 4000 and burns the shorts…

  11. pugsma said

    The TSLA chart has now been updated in the 2022 CCA Service. https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

  12. orion.colorado said

    I like the look of where NYMO is settling is vs upper bb at close. Cobra’s outlook is seems to be aligning with the above as well.

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