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May 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 19, 2022

3:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3926, quickly hit 3877 (day’s low), rallied to 3938, fell to 3889, rallied to 3946 (day’s high) and fell to 3898…

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: There are two options on how the P2-C2 low will end at 3859 (primary green) or the 3821 to 3771 area (alternate blue).

House Keeping: Next blog update will be on Monday, May 23rd.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Anaylsis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

28 Responses to “May 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Today’s price movement between 3877 and 3946 sure looks like a bear flag. Bear flag target is 3877 – (3877-3946) = 3808.

    • pugsma said

      But we did get a red VIX and green NYMO today with a red SP500.

      That same technical setup produced a massive rally last Friday the 13th.

  2. MS53 said

    All important NYAD cumulative showing positive divergence wrt SPX since its low close on May 11.

  3. pugsma said

    Tom DeMark is with me on the bottom call near here and big rally to 4400.

    However, Tom seems to prefer my alt(blue) count with a close below 3859 first.

    https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1527648585977929728?s=21&t=ncCzzLkUrj9tt7tbPDLI5w

    • pugsma said

      In fact DeMark’s system needs two closes below 3859. So Monday and Tuesday next week if the 15-min bear flag breaks down below 3877.

    • pugsma said

      And Cobra’s historical stats on the SP500 down 6 weeks (as it was last week) calls for a lower low than 3859.

      • MS53 said

        I recall Denali saying that a strong trend into opex tended to follow through into the early part of the following week before a trend change began to emerge.

  4. stevesumma said

    Is it more prudent to just wait for a move above 4091 or below 3859?

    • pugsma said

      I’ve already shared my 200% long position since last Thursday afternoon near 3858. I haven’t waivered and wound only consider leaving this position blow the 3771 area.

      • orion.colorado said

        Thanks this update and all the comments above and below today, Steve

  5. pugsma said

    If M5=M1 at 3824 and the 38% Fib retrace of P1 at 3821 doesn’t hold, then it’s lower to the 3727 pivot and max bear flag target at 3733 early next week.

  6. Robert Swaim said

    Here we are at 3810 with the #CPCE coming down off a peak and daily MACD lower than anytime since the March 2020 low. Not seeing a bottom volume spike yet but everything else is screaming that at least a nice bounce may come soon.

  7. pugsma said

    Interestingly the QQQ has not closed below its weekly BB during this entire decline since the 408.71 peak in late Nov. it will today if it closes below 291.

  8. LightBearer86 said

    ARKK looks interesting too, Steve. The soldiers are marching on.

  9. pugsma said

    FYI: If there is going to be a lower low than 3810, this move up must stop below 3946.

    • pugsma said

      But this sure looks like THE Bottom to me. Both NYSE and Nasdaq A-D Line Cumulative have a week long +DIV with the Thursday May 12th SP500 closing low.

  10. pugsma said

    I’m making the call, Giddy Up!

  11. pugsma said

    1) Be Greedy when others are Fearful

    2) When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to

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