May 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 19, 2022
3:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3926, quickly hit 3877 (day’s low), rallied to 3938, fell to 3889, rallied to 3946 (day’s high) and fell to 3898…
Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Wave Counts: There are two options on how the P2-C2 low will end at 3859 (primary green) or the 3821 to 3771 area (alternate blue).
House Keeping: Next blog update will be on Monday, May 23rd.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
28 Responses to “May 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
pugsma said
Today’s price movement between 3877 and 3946 sure looks like a bear flag. Bear flag target is 3877 – (3877-3946) = 3808.
pugsma said
But we did get a red VIX and green NYMO today with a red SP500.
That same technical setup produced a massive rally last Friday the 13th.
MS53 said
All important NYAD cumulative showing positive divergence wrt SPX since its low close on May 11.
pugsma said
Tom DeMark is with me on the bottom call near here and big rally to 4400.
However, Tom seems to prefer my alt(blue) count with a close below 3859 first.
https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1527648585977929728?s=21&t=ncCzzLkUrj9tt7tbPDLI5w
pugsma said
In fact DeMark’s system needs two closes below 3859. So Monday and Tuesday next week if the 15-min bear flag breaks down below 3877.
MS53 said
Is the bear flag target 3947-3877= 69. 3877-69= 3808 ?
pugsma said
That’s the minimum Bear flag target, based on the size of the flag. The maximum is based on size of the flag pole. 4091-3877 = 214 => 3947 -214 = 3733
MS53 said
Thx for the lesson.
pugsma said
And Cobra’s historical stats on the SP500 down 6 weeks (as it was last week) calls for a lower low than 3859.
MS53 said
I recall Denali saying that a strong trend into opex tended to follow through into the early part of the following week before a trend change began to emerge.
pugsma said
Yes key bottoms are usually post OPEX
stevesumma said
Is it more prudent to just wait for a move above 4091 or below 3859?
pugsma said
I’ve already shared my 200% long position since last Thursday afternoon near 3858. I haven’t waivered and wound only consider leaving this position blow the 3771 area.
orion.colorado said
Thanks this update and all the comments above and below today, Steve
pugsma said
If M5=M1 at 3824 and the 38% Fib retrace of P1 at 3821 doesn’t hold, then it’s lower to the 3727 pivot and max bear flag target at 3733 early next week.
Robert Swaim said
Here we are at 3810 with the #CPCE coming down off a peak and daily MACD lower than anytime since the March 2020 low. Not seeing a bottom volume spike yet but everything else is screaming that at least a nice bounce may come soon.
pugsma said
Interestingly the QQQ has not closed below its weekly BB during this entire decline since the 408.71 peak in late Nov. it will today if it closes below 291.
pugsma said
Also the Nasdaq A-D Line cumulative looks like or could close with a significant +DIV today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NaAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69119237901&a=785666345&listNum=1
orion.colorado said
I have been reviewing IWM and it is holding up pretty well in light of the General tripping and stumbling down today.
LightBearer86 said
ARKK looks interesting too, Steve. The soldiers are marching on.
pugsma said
FYI: If there is going to be a lower low than 3810, this move up must stop below 3946.
pugsma said
But this sure looks like THE Bottom to me. Both NYSE and Nasdaq A-D Line Cumulative have a week long +DIV with the Thursday May 12th SP500 closing low.
pugsma said
And VIX has a week long -DIV.
Both you often see at a key bottom.
pugsma said
I’m making the call, Giddy Up!
pugsma said
With a daily hammer candle to knock out the bears! 😎
pugsma said
There is also the market history stat that says “key bottoms that are made on a Friday are typically durable and long lasting”.
lauter1 said
DJI low today was a beautiful fib hit: https://www.screencast.com/t/psaRC0MAcvMb.
pugsma said
1) Be Greedy when others are Fearful
2) When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to