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May 17th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 17, 2022

6:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4008 to 4052, rose to 4071, dropped to 4034, rose to the rest of day closed near the high of 4091 at 4089.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Market Comments:

  1. The NYMO closed above the zero line at +24. Multiple NYMO closes above +20 are typical of new impulse wave higher.
  2. There is a now “triggered” (with the close above 4039) bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on SP500 15-min chart with head at 3859, neckline at 4039, and measured move target of 4219.

House Keeping: This week I’ll be out of town in St Louis babysitting the grandkids. I’ll try to make a blog post (May 17th) or two (May 19th from my sons-in-law computer.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

27 Responses to “May 17th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Joe Schmid said

    “The S&P 500 just made a 2% gain in two of the past three days coming off of a 52-week low. The last times that happened? March 2009 and March 2020.”

    Source: https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526658769450680321

  2. jrw said

    Steve, does this move down today invalidate the IH&S?

  3. pugsma said

    Breaking below 3859 triggers a low down to at least the 38% Fib at 3821 and more likely the 42% retrace at 3717, similar to the year 2011, P2-C1 wave. And there is some risk of a move to the 50% Fib at 3505.

  4. pugsma said

    At 1:15 pm It’s running as a 92% downside volume NYSE day, which would wipeout Friday’s 92% upside day and setup for lower lows directly ahead.

  5. pugsma said

    Lowest Fib retrace areas for the alt(blue) labels are 78% at 3910 and 88% at 3887. Low so far 3931.

  6. pugsma said

    New SP500 closing low at 3923 on 1/2 volume, +DIV on NYMO and NYSE A-D Line and -DIV on VIX.

    Very interesting. Either this new decline is just getting started and 3505 area (50% Fib of P1) is next or this is successful re-test of 3859 area (3821 38% Fib of P1).

    • pugsma said

      No chart update today.

      As long as all May 12th lows continue to hold, I’ll assume this move is a deep 78%/88% Fib retrace for minute (2) of minor 1 of the primary (white/green) count or minor B of alt(red) count.

      • Wayne Curtis said

        Hi Steve
        Why do you still have the purple count on the charts?
        If it’s no longer valid.
        Cheers

        • pugsma said

          The new alt(blue) shown on the charts last night is exactly what happened today: a wave (1) of minor 1 or minor A peak at 4091 and a big drop for minute (2) or minor B. I only listed the 50% Fib at 3975 and we reached the 78% at 3910.

        • pugsma said

          There is nothing on the May 17th SP500 charts above calling for a lower low than 3859. That would be a completely different wave count. That will need some detailed thought. There at least two count options that I’ll consider only if 3859 breaks.

    • pugsma said

      If you look at late Jan and early March, you will clearly see back-testing a low on much lower volume (like today) can be bullish for higher lows.

      Back testing a low on higher volume, like early May is bearish for lower lows ahead.

  7. pugsma said

    I’m in the 16% group! It’s good being the contrarian. 🙂

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1527030753988591616?s=21&t=8BoyJI0xoDOawJZfbJr5iA

  8. stevesumma said

    Your thoughts on where the alt blue goes next?

    • pugsma said

      There is no alt(blue) count at the moment. The alt(blue) labels on the chart become the primary (white/green) count for a minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3 or minor B of major [X]-P2 of alt(red) count. Both at valid above the May 12th low at 3859.

      • AT said

        Thanks Pug so essentially the blue on the chart is now primary count … question is do you still see us bouncing as high for X or does X become a flat due to the deep retrace ?

        • pugsma said

          Mayor [X] of the alt(red) count is retracing the 4819 to 3859 drop. It should last a couple months and likely retrace to 50% Fib (4339).

  9. pugsma said

    Yesterday day was a 92% DVol day after Friday’s 92% UVol day.

    Since year 2006 this behavior marked key bottoming areas in 2010, 2011 (P1-C1), 2015, 2016, and 2020.

    https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1527264170047045634?s=21&t=vHLELNp3-4m9Sg-OoBgdoA

  10. pugsma said

    The SP500 would need to rally 123 points from 3900 to 4023 to not close down 7 weeks in a row.

    Down 7 weeks in a row on the SP500 has only happened twice:

    March 1980; was THE bottom

    March 2001: Local bottom, but much lower into Oct 2002

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1527287707264684033?s=21&t=vHLELNp3-4m9Sg-OoBgdoA

  11. pugsma said

    This article by Market Watch citing Evercore Strategist is and interesting read:

    “Indeed, our call of the day from Evercore strategists says that markets are spiraling on the view that recession is a foregone conclusion. They also say that panicky, leveraged retail investors who have been behind this selloff, should calm down soonish as the pros aren’t running scared (yet).

    “On Thursday, we will get an idea whether the market action is part of a volatile bottoming process, our base case, or whether the decline could materially undercut SPX 3,854, triggering a capitulation trade,” notes the Evercore team, led by Julian Emanuel.“

    https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1527291136263327747?s=21&t=vHLELNp3-4m9Sg-OoBgdoA

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