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May 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 13, 2022

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3932 to 3963, rose to 4039 (day’s high), dropped to 3980 and closed at 4024.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Market Comments:

  1. On Thursday, May 12th, the SP500 hit 3859 coming close to it’s 38% Fibonacci retrace (3821) of P1-C3 and the QQQ and IWM both dipped slightly below their respective 50% Fib retraces (186.82 and 170.08) of P1-C3. This is nice confluence of targets for the conclusion of P2-C3 per the primary (white/green) wave count. However, until the SP500 4068 level is breached above, there is still the possibility of the slightly lower near-term targets at 3821 to 3771 shown the charts as per the alternate (blue) wave count.
  2. Also, the SP-500 total loss from it’s Jan 4th peak at 4819 to it’s May 12th low at 3859 hit -19.9% and the QQQ and IWM hit -30.3% losses from their peaks. Thus, the SP-500 stopped just 0.1% shy of a -20% decline “Bear Market”.
  3. There is potential bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on SP500 15-min chart with head at 3859, neckline at 4039, and measured move target of 4219.

House Keeping: Next week I’ll be out of town in St Louis babysitting the grandkids. I’ll try to make a blog post or two from my sons-in-law computer.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

38 Responses to “May 13th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I had a little time today, so I decided to update the charts before leaving for St Louis on Saturday morning.

    It’s unfortunate that the SP500 couldn’t break above 4069 today and eliminate the alt (blue) count for a slightly lower low that 3859. It’s low probability (say < 20% ) now, but must remain on the charts.

  2. pugsma said

    Wow it was a 92% NYSE upside volume day!

    To find out what this implies, read the notes from man who wrote the book on using NYSE multiple 90% down volume days followed by a 90% volume upside day in calling a key market bottoms.

    https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1525209269192347651?s=21&t=0E2_l8jSQuTiQg65cP8UJg

    • pugsma said

      The notes say that after the two or more 90% down volume days (we had this on Last Thurs 5/5 and this Monday 5/9) followed by a 90% upside volume day (today 5/13) the key Market bottom will ovule within 5 trading days (by Friday May 20th).

      So while there is small chance we could get down to 3821 to 3771 by next Friday (alt blue), there is an extremely high probability of a key market bottom here (ie P2-C3).

      • hmeda said

        Steve, that’s refreshing news given that Cobra is stating 100% chance of a lower low. What is your take? If we breach 4068 is that probably much lower? Thank you in advance.

        • pugsma said

          We’ve seen Cobra’s 100% historical lower low stats be busted several times between March 2020 and Jan 2022. History is broken often in the markets.

          The 90% Up volume day after multiple 90% down volume days stat does tend to produce a tradable bottom, but not always “the bottom”.

          • pugsma said

            Short-term if the SP500 can trade above 4069 next we, we can eliminate the alt(blue) for the immediate lower low to 3821 to 3771.

            Then we can look to a sustained bull move up to at least 4219 (IHS target) or the 38% Fib at 4224 and possibly as high as the 50% Fib at 4339. Note: this is Primary (green) minor 1 of major [1] Target or Alt(red) major [X] target.

            From there things get interesting. The bulls will have a real shot and will need to break above the falling 200-day SMA currently at 4482 to confirm the P2-C3 bottom. But failing to do this will lead to a potential US Recession and this we certainly can’t take the alt(red) count off table that after this bounce, the SP500 is headed down much lower to 3505 to 3200 into the fall.

            Best advice is to be nibble until things become clearer later in the summer.

    • pugsma said

      SP500 Chart since 2006 showing 90% Up days after 2 or more 90% down days within 10 seasons:

      https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1526156114043314176?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA

  3. mike Soteropoulos said

    Can’t leave STL without Sone Imo’s pizza and Ted Drewes frozen custard!

    • pugsma said

      Thanks for the suggestions. I’ll be out in far western burbs of Ballwin, MO.

      Unfortunately, I have a dairy allergy so no real cheese pizza or dairy custards or ice cream for me.

  4. pugsma said

    Good charts here on this secular bull market (Super Cycle V) the began in March of 2009 ( confirmed in 2013 was when the SP500 broke out to a new all-time high).

    As long as the SP500 holds above the 200-week SMA (currently at 3475), the secular bull (ie Super Cycle V) is intact and as I’ve shown on my monthly chats, the target is well above 8000 into the 2030’s.

    https://twitter.com/mikezaccardi/status/1525888550067224577?s=21&t=UsBOI100pNowepzYCYuHQg

  5. pugsma said

    SP500 Down 6 weeks in a row stats:

    Bulls want this to be like years 1970, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1990, 2002 and 2004.

    Bears looking for years 1969, 2000 and 2008.

    Notice treat 2011 (P2-C1) is another scenario of down 6 straight weeks in a row that was basically neutral with a slight year end bull basis of up +3%

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526177663089532930?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA

  6. pugsma said

    Mystery Broker:

    https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1526185143538425856?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA

  7. pugsma said

    NYMO trying to poke its nose above the zero line.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

  8. pugsma said

    So far everything below 4039, looks like a bull flag, right shoulder of the bullish IHS.

    IHS Looks good as long as it holds at or above 50% at 3849.

    • MS53 said

      These intraday pattern recognition comments are really helpful, especially to me since I am a purely indicator and moving average trader.

    • pugsma said

      And here we go on the fourth test of the 4030 to 4039 IHS neckline resistance.

      You know what happens next IF it breaks above it…

  9. pugsma said

    Here in the middle of May 2022 you get to buy the the SP500 at a forward P/E of 17, the 25-year long-term average.

    https://twitter.com/isabelnet_sa/status/1526158659700543489?s=21&t=2aNsFf20Qve8VbUoUnnuCA

  10. pugsma said

    5-16-22 SP500 Summary: Today the SP500 remained in a bull flag consolidation, while forming the right shoulder of the bullish IHS pattern. Breaking and closing above the 4049 to 4039 neckline resistance sets up the move up to 4224. It looks like today’s rise to 4046 might be the b of white minute (2) or (b) of red minor B on the 15-min chart. Could still be a dip to c=1.62a or (c)=1.62(a) at 3950 (50% Fib) tomorrow. Note a mice below the 50% Fib of 3946, opens the door for the alt(blue) to reach 3821 to 3772 later this week into OPEX Friday.

    No need to update the charts today. I will post the next update after the close on Tuesday May 17th.

    • pugsma said

      Some green shoots: With the red SP500 close, the VIX closed red, the NYMO closed green and the NYSE A-D Line closed green.

  11. pugsma said

    Key levels to break above today to eliminate the alt(blue) count immediate lower low and confront an intermediate more up 5% +

    SP500: 4069 (pre-market 4054)
    IWM: 180.82 (pre-market 180.32)
    QQQ: 305.11 (pre-market 303.40)

  12. pugsma said

    Love this tweet on the US Consumer and US Economy. No recession, Aligns with my primary (white/green) wave count.

    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1526553481586294786?s=21&t=NRBh5c5xlVJ1qtlgzZ1RsQ

  13. pugsma said

    Falling 13-day EMA at 4081 should provide some resistance today.

    NYMO strong and up above +30 intraday-day this morning.

  14. pugsma said

    Lots of fund managers cash on the sidelines. Most since 9/11 in year 2021.

    Positioned for a market “crash” down. But what happens next IF we go up?

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1526555167990157313?s=21&t=NRBh5c5xlVJ1qtlgzZ1RsQ

  15. pugsma said

    Ideally the SP500 closes above the 4039 to 4049 area which is the IHS neckline.

    • pugsma said

      Looking like a giddy up will be in order today, with a solid close above the 4039 to 4049 IHS neckline!

  16. pugsma said

    US Fed Real-time GDP increases Q2-2022 from 1.8% to 2.5%. Range of top 10 and bottom 10 forecast above 4%

    When the trend is up in GDP revisions, a recession is not likely.

    https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1526599368282882048?s=21&t=XBRr9eEaaEF5QaPZjiIPGw

  17. pugsma said

    It’s another key bullish indicator that small caps (IWM) continue to lead again today up +3%!

  18. pugsma said

    We are only on day 3 of a 10 trading day Zweig Breadth Thrust watch…

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21BINYBT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32123590350&a=427381773&r=1604930894355&cmd=print

  19. pugsma said

    We already cleared 4068, so alt(blue ) count is off the charts.

    A move above and close above the initial low at 4115 from late Feb, triggers a bear trap, false break down and sets up a rip above 4637 to a measure move of 4637 + (4637 – 3859) = 5413 (major [1]-P3 target.

    • AT said

      Pug – can you explain what pattern this is – the long from Thursday working well 😀

  20. pugsma said

    Those that got 200% long last Thursday afternoon with are repealing large rewards.

    A close today above 4039 to 4049 triggers a 300% long position for me.

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