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May 12th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 12, 2022

6:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3935 to 3913, dropped to 3877, rose to 3965 (day’s high), dropped to 3859 (day’s low), and then rallied into the close to close at 3930.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Market Comments:

  1. The SP500 came close to hitting it’s 38% Fibonacci retrace (3821) of P1-C3 and the QQQ and IWM both dipped slight below their respective 50% Fib retraces (186.82 and 170.08) of P1-C3. This is nice confluence of targets for the conclusion of P2-C3 per the primary (white/green) wave counts. However, there still slightly lower near-term targets shown the charts as per the alternate (blue) wave counts.
  2. Also, the SP-500 total loss from it’s Jan 4th peak at 4819 hit -19.9% at the low today of 3859 and the QQQ and IWM hit -30.3% losses from their peaks.

House Keeping: Tomorrow, is Friday and I won’t be making blog posts on Friday’s through Labor Day (Sept 5th). Also, next week I’ll be out of town in St Louis babysitting the grandkids. I’ll try to make a blog post or two from my sons-in-law computer.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM weekly chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ weekly chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

15 Responses to “May 12th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    There were two small “green shoots” today with the SP500 putting in a lower closing low from yesterday (ie. 3930 today vs 3935 yesterday).

    Both the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed green with the new SP500 closing low. This is small potential +DIV that needs confined on Friday with a continued move high in both indicators.

  2. pugsma said

    Just now traded down to 150% Long from 200% Long yesterday near 4859.

    I my goal is to trade down to 100% long going into this weekend, unless we see a close above 4049. Then I’ll ramp back up to 200% long. Or below 3771, then I’ll drop to 0% long.

    Plan is to trade around this bottoming area of 3821 until we see a break out above 4049 (200% long) or breakdown below 3771 (0% long)

    • AT said

      Pug – can you share what you mean by trading 200% long in an account ? Will be great to learn as a newbie !!

      Great call !!

      • pugsma said

        The ETF UPRO is 3X (300%) SPY daily.

        The ETF TQQQ is 3X (300%) QQQ daily.

        The ETF TNA is 3X (300%) IWM daily.

        Thus using these daily bull (long) ETF’s you can go up to 300% long in your account (i.e. $100,000 cash account can trade as $300,000).

        But remember these 3X ETF are re-priced daily and will have some small decay over longer time periods. I’ve used them to do swing trades long over a few weeks to a few months with no significant issues. I would say it’s not great to hold them for 6 months to a year plus, as the decay will hurt your profits.

        • AT said

          Thank you – so if you go 60% long these ETF you are 200% long the account – am I thinking of this the right way ?

          • pugsma said

            As and example if you have a $100,000 cash investment account:

            Buy $33,333 of UPRO is like owning $100,000 SPY (100% Long the Market SP500)

            Buy $66,666 UPRO is $200,000 SPY (200% Long)

            Buy $100,000 UPRO is $300,000 SPY (300% Long)

  3. hinge said

    Steve On the SP500 daily it seems to me a parallel channel exits between PB to P1 (top) and PC C2 to P2 (bottom) Your thoughts on this ?

  4. pugsma said

    Key levels to watch into the close today:

    SP500 above 4049 (4022 so far)

    QQQ above 305.07 (300.85 so far)

    IWM above 178.19 (177.93 so far)

    The soldiers (IWM) the generals (SP500), which is bullish!

    Don’t want to see any significant fade into the close day (ie need a change of character).

  5. pugsma said

    It takes a single 90% upside day or consecutive 80% upside days to confirm a new sustainable impulse wave higher.

    We are 89% upside today, so far…

    https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1525122957722386432?s=21&t=8rmQtHqJAKw1SyOlT-7OXw

  6. pugsma said

    On the 5-min chart the past 5 trading days there is a text book bullish Inverse Head and Shoulder (IHS) pattern with head at 3859, neckline at 4039. On a break above 4039 (today’s) this ISH has a measured move up to 4039 + (4039-3859) = 4218 (+5% up from here at 4020).

    Have a great weekend ! 😎

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