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May 11th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 11, 2022

6:15 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4001, rose to 4049 (day’s high), then dropped steadily all day to 3929 (day’s low) and closed at 3935 (new closing low).

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

32 Responses to “May 11th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    SP500 hit 3929 just above it’s 38% Fib of 3821

    QQQ hit 390.95 just above it’s 50% Fib of 286.82

    IWM hit 170.30 or right at it’s 50% fib of 170.08 (note there is an open gap to fill at 166 to 169 on the daily chart from Nov 2022)

  2. Michael Kalin said

    QQQ down 3% with $VIX down as well? I’ve never seen anything like that!
    Also, I know this is an SP centric view, but would you be able to comment on relative strength of every other big markets? $DAX, $NIKK, $HSI all seem to be in bull flag formations (nowhere near the lows).

    • pugsma said

      I don’t chart any of those global indices. I do recall the German DAX sold off far more (-23%) than the US (-14.7%) on the initial days of the Russia-Ukraine war. Now the US has caught up at -18.8% down vs DAX down only -15.1%.

    • pugsma said

      Also the VIX red today is the outlier, since both the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line hit new lows with the new SP500 closing low. No sign of +DIV on NYMO or NYSE A-D line yet likely means lower lows ahead for SP500.

  3. Michael Kalin said

    The $vix during initial 2008 meltdown exhibited similar behavior to today. The initial sell-off from the Oct 2007 highs saw a massive $VIX spike. There were two subsequent lows on the $SPX (finally bottoming in March 2008), while the $VIX never eclipsed that initial spike (huge divergence). I’m made aware of this because the same perma-bears I used to follow are repeating the same (false) thing: “$VIX has to spike like crazy to mark a bottom”. Wasn’t true then… we’ll see about this time.

    • pugsma said

      Yes. Typical -35% Loss or more Bear Markets tend to see an initial -20% loss in the SP500 (3855 area), then bounce back towards the falling 200-day (4482 area) and finally fail there in epic plunge much lower. That’s why my alt (red) count is how it is labeled.

  4. pugsma said

    Here are 16 times since year 2000 when the SP500 was down -1.5% and VIX red like yesterday.

    12 of 16 (75%) positive one week later, by as much as +11%.

    Of the 4 of 16 negative cases one week later, 2 were only down -1%.

    https://twitter.com/markettells/status/1524497048363360256?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg

  5. pugsma said

    SP500 will need to hit 3855 to be down -20% from the 4819 peak and confirm it’s Bear Market, eliminating the < 20% correction historical scenarios that are extremely bullish going forward from here. While there are a few (1/3) SP500 Bear Markets that only dropped just below -20% most (2/3) went on to drop an average of -35%.

    • pugsma said

      Here is every SP500 Bear Market (-20% loss or more) going back to the Great Depression in 1929. There have been 22 Bear Markets in the SP500 over nearly 100 years.

      The Average Loss is -36% (would be 3084) and Average Duration 14 months (would be March 2023).

      However note that there are 7 of the 22 (32%) of the SP500 Bear Markets that ended between -20% (3855) to -22% (would be 3758). The most recent are years 2018 and 2011 (P2-C1 Bottom).

      https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1524413472280350730?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg

      • pugsma said

        It should also be note that the 5 biggest SP500 Bear Markets of 2008 (-58%), 2000 (-51%), 1973 (-50%), 1937 (-54%), 1929 (-86%). Heavily skew the average data of -36% Loss. Take this 5 out and you are looking at an average of -26% (3566).

      • pugsma said

        Bulls really want to the SP500 to hold in this -20% (3855) to -22% (3758) area that corresponds to 7 of 22 of the bear markets.

        The next batch (8 of 22) of SP500 Bear Markets is in the -24% (3662) to -37% (3035) range.

  6. MS53 said

    Steve, does today’s 3877-3964 show any potential merit ?

  7. pugsma said

    Here are the 6 times the SP500 fell 6 weeks in a row (since year 2000), which is what will happen this week IF the SP500 closes below 4123 on Friday.

    The good news is it’s up 5 of 6 cases up in week 7. The bad news is in 4 of the 6 cases the market was even lower one year later.

    And if you look at the SP500 chart, year 2022 does look almost exactly likely July 2008. So a bounce of +5% over 4 weeks and then a absolute crash of -28% over the next 5 months.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1524762591926513664?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg

  8. pugsma said

    NAAIM (active money managers) down to 24% net Long. This hit 10% net long on March 18, 2020 just before the 2192 bottom.

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1524783340171235329?s=21&t=F-w1HITay0HVyQYubHxKZg

  9. pugsma said

    From an E-Wave perspective, a major [C] wave of a Bear market is identical to a major [3] wave of a Bull Market.

    Now that the major [C] = [A] target of 3933 has been significantly surpassed (3859), we must begin to look at the next Fibonacci extension targets for the end of major [C]-P2.

    First up is major [C] = 1.23*[A] = 3771 (38% Fib of P1 = 3821)

    Next up is major [C] = 1.38*[A] = 3665

    Finally it’s major [C] = 1.62*[A] = 3497 (50% Fib of P1 = 3505)

    These will be included on the charts tonight.

    • pugsma said

      Note: 3497 is still another -9.3% Loss from here at 3859. This is why a lot of institutions are still still into cash positions even here at 3859.

      • pugsma said

        Institutions have finally started yesterday and today to dump their best holdings AAPL and MSFT to raise more cash.

        This signals the last phases of this current leg down. Problem is now it can go on for a few weeks and we could see 3497 (50% Fib of P1) in June.

        • pugsma said

          The bull soldiers (ARKK, IWM, QQQ etc) are all lying dead in the trenches and the now the bull generals (SP500, AAPL, MSFT, etc) are being shot in the head, execution style.

          The bears may have won the battle P2-C3, but not the war Super Cycle V (SC-V) that will run decades into the future. Bulls will be back in full force during P3-C3 of SC-V.

  10. pugsma said

    More crazy downside panic selling stats like this one on the NYSE keep popping. They can be early as seen in 2008, but should eventually catch.

    https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1524819161393815557?s=21&t=DeAQekoqlHYVn9G-7caVyw

  11. pugsma said

    More chart data showing the VIX non-Conformation (ie red yesterday) with a SP500 down more than 1%. Key low of significant rebound near, except 2008 case.

    https://twitter.com/mark_ungewitter/status/1524804121240412162?s=21&t=rt3dpyjYrBwjyjz38w0Ltg

  12. pugsma said

    Here are the 18 Nasdaq Bear Markets with losses more than -20%.

    Interestingly the QQQ here down at -30% and 168 days is close to the media of -32% in 126 days.

    https://twitter.com/roylmattox/status/1524550562192240641?s=21&t=rt3dpyjYrBwjyjz38w0Ltg

  13. pugsma said

    In other breaking news my investment account closed up +0.34% today!

    Over the past 5 trading days I’ve gone from 40% long in the markets to over 200% mid-afternoon today. I’m trading the opposite (contrarian) of NAAIM here that’s only +24% long as of today.

    I really hope 3777 to 3821 can hold and I don’t have to dump these long positions in SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, and IBB going back to cash.

    • pugsma said

      Big wins for me today in IWM and IBB.

      Note that I posted an IBB chart yesterday for 2022 CCA Subscribers.

      Hopefully this confluence is IWM and QQQ at their 50% Fibs today along with the SP500 at the 38% Fib can produce at least a multi-week rally of +10%.

    • pugsma said

      I still have cash left to get to 300% long, which I’d likely do on a close above 4049 (4063) or a drop and hold near 3777 to 3821.

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