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    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
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    1-5, A-C : Minor
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May 9th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 9, 2022

5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4123 to 4082, dropped quickly to 4003, rose to 4050, and then dropped the rest the day to 3975 (day’s low) and closed at 3991.

SP-500 Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  • The primary (white/green) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 completed at 3975 or will complete at 3933, where major [C]=[A]. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 3975 or if it drops to 3993, then above 3933.
  • The alternate (blue) count variation of the primary (white/green) count is the final wave minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 has a little more work to the downside. The minute (3) of minor 4, should target at least the (3)=(1) area at 3917, then a minute (4) bounce to the 38% Fib at 4008 and finally minute (5) down to the 3875, where minor 5=1.62*minor 1. Note: the 38% Fib retrace of P1 is at 3821 (-20.7% loss to just the edge of bear market).
  • The new alternate (red) count is that the drop to the 3975 to 3821 area is only major [W]-P2-C3 and after a major [X] wave bounce the 38%/50% Fib at 4200 to 4320 area there will be another large leg down for major [Y]-P2 (to the 50%/62% Fib of P1 at 3506 to 3190). Note: The alternate (red) count allows for a full-blown bear market in the SP500 down to typical loss of -35% (3132) and nearly 275 calendars into Oct/Nov 2022.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

22 Responses to “May 9th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Notice on the SP500 weekly chart that back in year 2011 the P1-C1 peak was a +109% Gain from the SC-IV low at 667 and the P2-C1 loss was a -21.6% loss to a 42% retrace of P1.

    Fast forward to today the P1-C3 gain is +120% (similar to P1-C1) and the P2-C3 loss so far at 3975 is -17.5% to a 32% retrace of P1. Thus, dropping a little further to 3821 (-20.7% Loss and 38% Fib) would right in-line with P2-C1 back in year 2011.

  2. pugsma said

    Note the NYMO closed today at -65.81 vs -65.56 back in late April. Thus the +DIV has been lost.

  3. pugsma said

    2 of last 3 days were at least 93% down volume days on the NYSE. Interesting signal dates and stats here:

    https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1523776925017473024?s=21&t=Kde2bH8WH4R8x9yeoOIRTw

  4. pugsma said

    Key level to watch today is 4067. Above 4067, the primary (white/green) count with 3975 as the P2-C3 bottom gains significantly probability vs the alt(blue) count with P2-C3 hitting 3821.

  5. pugsma said

    So here’s my general thinking with the wave counts.

    Primary (white /green) & Alt(blue): Since the major indices began their P2-C3 correction in late Nov 2021, my base case has been a P2-C3 wave similar to the year 2011 P2-C1 wave that retraced 42% to a -21.6% loss. The 38% Fib for P2-C3 is at 3821 and that’s at -20.7% Loss from the P1-C3 peak at 4819. All the versions of waves counts shown here until yesterday, ended at or above 3821. This base case is no economic recession with moderating inflation in the 2nd half of year 2022. This is the same as the Feds goal and base case. In this base case the Fed will likely be able to slow and stop interest rate hikes near 2.5%.

    New Alternate (red): This count assumes sticky inflation through all of 2022 and a mild economic recession late 2022 into early 2023. The Fed will have to do more increasing interest rates well beyond 2.5% to has high as 3.5 to 4.0%. In this cases the SP500 will likely head much lower for the 50% to 62% Fibs at 3505 to 3190. Most of this damage will likely be felt from July to October 2022.

    • pugsma said

      The key to sorting this out are the next 2 to 3 monthly CPI reports beginning with the April report tomorrow at 8:30 EST.

    • pugsma said

      If you look at history with a simple technical guide, when the economy entered a recession the SP500 initially fell -20% (3855), then bounced towards the now falling 200-day SMA (4485), failed and dropped -35% total on average (3130).

      Thus clearing above the falling 200-day SMA, currently at 4485 is a big key to the bullish primary (white/green) or alt(blue) counts.

      • pugsma said

        Technically speaking, the burden of proof is now squaring on the bulls. The 200-day SMA at 4485 must be re-capture over the next 1 to 2 months. Lingering below it sets up much more down side pet the alt(red).

  6. MS53 said

    Within 5 [C], today’s high at 4069 is a (4) into (1) violation. also make wave (3) of 183 pts. shorter than wave(1) 241 points. So, IF there is going to be another low under 3975, it’s limited to 4069-183= 3886. Would that be the case ?

    • pugsma said

      It’s not a violation of the alt (blue) if as I have it labeled the minute (3) of minor 5 is still on going lower towards 3917. It would just be a i-ii of minute (3) and now iii-(3) headed lower. That’s why alt(blue) count says valid below 4158.

  7. pugsma said

    House Keeping: No need to update the charts tonight. I’ll do my next update on Wednesday, May 11th near the close.

  8. pugsma said

    Love the Jim Cramer farming analogy on the markets here at this key bottoming area: separating the wheat from the chaff.

    • pugsma said

      All my newly acquired “wheat” is performing well the past two days!

    • pugsma said

      It’s important to think of the BIG picture now.

      Acquiring the “wheat” near the low of P2-C3 of Super Cycle V (SC-V), has the potential to set things up for massive gains into the next decade.

  9. pugsma said

    A close today above the 4063 May 2nd and the SP500 is going RIP much higher!

    • pugsma said

      A close above 4063 would represent a “false breakdown” and signal a double bottom at 4063 and 3958.

      Double Bottom Target is 4637 + (4637-3958) => 5316 (the Major [1]-P3 target).

    • pugsma said

      There is going to be an epic battle here between 3958 and 4063. Bears don’t want to let the SP500 close above 4063 and the bulls don’t want to lose 3958.

  10. pugsma said

    I just updated the IBB (Biotech ETF) in the 2022 Custom Chart Archive Service. This one looks very interestng…

    https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

  11. pugsma said

    Summer weather has arrived in Chicagoland, finally. 90F the past two days!

    I’m headed out for a long bike ride now. I’ll be back at the EOD with the SP500 chart update.

  12. MS53 said

    Are you back yet, Lance ? Can this weeks action be identified as a 3 push pattern ?

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