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April 26th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 26, 2022

7:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4297 to 4279, dropped to 4207, rose to 4235, dropped to close on the low at 4176.

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count and alternate (blue) count combination that this current move lower will end in the area of the 4115 February low (either slightly above or slightly below) is 60% probable, and alternate (red) count the P2-C2 low will reach at least 3823 or lower is 40% probable. 

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The major [1] of P3-C3 wave up is underway, but in the very early stages. The minor 1 of major [1] wave reached 4637. The large drop to 4176 is the minor 2 wave, that has retraced to the 88% Fib at 4178. The minor 3 wave up should target minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 5022.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4115.
  2. The new alternate (blue) count is that the P2-C2 wave down is near a completion and it will slightly undercut the February 4115 low. The major [C]=0.78[A] target is at 4088 or right at the 4086 pivot area.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing and will target at least the 38% Fib of P1 at 3821 (maybe lower to the 50% Fib at 3506). Within the P2 wave, major [A] ended at 4115 and the major [B] wave topped at 4637. Now the major [C] wave down is headed towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4370 and the minor 2 wave bounce hit 5212, just above 50% Fib at 4504. The minor 3 wave down is underway and should target 1.62*minor 1 target it at 4079. Once minor 3 ends near 4079, the minor 4 should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4179 to 4244, before the final minor 5 drops lower that 4079 towards where major [C]=[A] at 3933 to complete P2. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4370.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

5 Responses to “April 26th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    So yesterday both the IWM and QQQ slightly undercut their February lows, while the SP500 did not, but came close at 4175 vs 4115.

    It’s typically for a stock index to re-test it’s key lows. It can slightly undercut or hold that low and be a successful re-test.

    I’m not saying this re-test of the February lows is successful at this point, as a week or two will need to pass with some bullish price action to determine that. However, I’m saying we need to be open to this possibility and the primary (white/green) and alt(blue) counts reflect this.

  2. pugsma said

    We have a potential double SP500 Buy trigger pull today, IF the SP500 can close back above its daily BB AND the VIX can close below its daily BB.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

  3. pugsma said

    Pretty interesting BTC price chart vs # internet users and # mobile phone handsets.

    https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1519053975085105155?s=21&t=4P2WQKDF4sNJ_xu4V8znlA

  4. pugsma said

    House Keeping: No blog updates needed tonight.

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