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    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
    C1-C5, CA-CC :Cycle
    P1-P5, PA-PC : Primary
    [1]-[5], [A]-[C] : Major
    1-5, A-C : Minor
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April 21st, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 21, 2022

7:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4459 to 4488, quickly hit 4512 (day’s high), then dropped steadily all-day to 4384 (day’s low) and closed at 4494.

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) count combination is 55% probable, and alternate (red) count is 45% probable. Note: below the 62% Fib of 4313, the alternate (red) count becomes the most probable wave count.

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The major [1] of P3-C3 wave up is underway, but in the very early stages. The minor 1 of major [1] wave reached 4637. The drop to 4370 was the minor 2 wave, that retraced to just below the 50% Fib area of 4376. The minor 3 wave up is just getting underway. The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 5216. Within minor 3, minuette i of minute (1) reached 4512 and minute (1) should reach the 4819 all-time high.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4370.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is a slight variant to the primary count is that the minor 2 of major [1]-P3 wave will retrace deeper to the 62% Fib at 4313. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above the P2 low at 4115.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing. Major [A]-P2 ended at 4115 and the major [B]-P2-C3 topped at 4637. Now the major [C]-P2 wave down is headed toward the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4370 and the minor 2 wave bounce hit 5212 within the 50%/62% Fib area at 4504/4536. The minor 3 wave down is underway and should target 1.62*minor 1 target it at 4079. There is a major [C]=[A] target at 3933 to complete P2. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4512.

House Keeping: There will be no blog update on Friday, April 22nd and the next blog update will be on Monday, April 25th.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

15 Responses to “April 21st, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Remember for the alt(red) count there will be 5 minute waves down for minor 3 of major [C]-P2 from 4512 to 4079. Minnie (1) of minor 3 down will likely end in in this 4350 to 4300 area and produce a minute (2) bounce to confuse traders who are still bullish thinking the minor 2 low of the primary (white/green) count has ended and minor 3 up has begun.

    • pugsma said

      The alt (red) count will likely produce the minute (2) of minor 3 bounce higher into the big tech earnings next week. Also last week of April is seasonally bullish.

      If 4352 ended minute (1) of minor 3, then a 50%/62% Fib for minute (2) is at 4432 to 4452.

      • pugsma said

        This minute (2) of minor 3 bounce to 4432 to 4452 is the the last exit point on the alt (red) count path down to 3823 to complete P2-C3.

      • pugsma said

        Of course as mentioned before the close yesterday, a “gap down and go” waterfall type decline today and especially Monday is still a decent probability here in a minor 3 of major [C]-P2 bear wave.

  2. pugsma said

    General Comment/Opinion:

    It seems that the US Fed officials are timing their hawkish monetary policy “comments” perfectly to induce the alt() count. Thursday’s comment by Chair Powell was timed perfectly at the bull/bear inflection point of 4504/4536. Powell’s hawkish comments induced a nearly 200 point SP500 drop.

    The US Fed needs the deflationary effects of a lower stock market to curtail consumer spending.

    • pugsma said

      The alt (red) count would take the SP500 price back to where year 2021 began at 3762.

      The big irony in all this is that for all of year 2021 the US Fed kept its foot on the QE and ZIRP policy pedal, with signs of inflation getting out of control. Now they are behind the curve and rushing to catch up. They could have avoided all this with a policy adjustment by mid-year 2021.

      • pugsma said

        And if you booked your gains in late 2021 or every early 2022, then you should be licking your chops to buy back in at the beginning of year 2021 price near 3800.

        • pugsma said

          Imagine how good the price will be on the high growth ARKK names at 3800 on the SP500. Most will be off 70% to 80% from their highs.

  3. pugsma said

    Yesterday’s and Today’s negative price action has set up the “potential “ for one of those once in a decade type market crashes early next week. Think October 1987 or May 2010 Flash Crash.

  4. pugsma said

    The SP500 close below the 62% Fib of 4313 makes the alt (red) count at least 50% probably and likely closer to 60%.

  5. pugsma said

    The AAPL Chart was updated today in the 2022 CCA: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2022/

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