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April 20th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 20, 2022

5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4463 to 4472, quickly hit 4488 (day’s high), dropped to 4449 (day’s low) and closed at 4459.

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count is 75% probable, and alternate (red) count is 25% probable.

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The major [1] of P3-C3 wave up is underway, but in the very early stages. The minor 1 of major [1] wave reached 4637. The drop to 4370 was the minor 2 wave, that retraced to just below the 50% Fib area of 4376. The minor 3 wave up is just getting underway. The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 5216. Within minor 3, minuette i of minute (1) should reach at least the 4546 pivot area and minute (1) should reach the 4819 all-time high.  Note: This primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4370.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing. Major [A]-P2 ended at 4115 and the major [B]-P2-C3 topped at 4637. Now the major [C]-P2 wave down is headed toward the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4381 and now the minor 2 wave bounce is headed towards the 50%/62% Fib area at 4509/4536. Once minor 2 completes, the minor 3 wave down should target 1.62*minor 1 target it at 4076. There is a major [C]=[A] target at 3933 to complete P2. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4637.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

15 Responses to “April 20th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Again keep a close eye on the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative. For the bullish primary (white/green) count, it should lead and breakout first to a new above where the SP500 hit 4637, before the SP500 breaks above 4637.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  2. pugsma said

    Also remember that once a wave retraces above the 62% Fib (5536 on the SP500), then the probability off a new high (above 4637) increase significantly.

  3. WaterRock said

    We have turned down rather hard from the Red 2, 50% level. Is the Red probability rising here? If so, are there price targets for the first leg down of Red 3?

  4. pugsma said

    QQQ broke the recent 335.79 low. Thus QQQ is in an ongoing minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 correction above 317.56. Below 317.56 it’s the alt(red) continuing much lower in minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3.

  5. pugsma said

    So far today the SP500 has suffered a 120 point drop from 4512 to 4392 after a 52 point rise from 4460 to 4512.

    Clearly this market has been highly volatile since the 4115 February low.

    4-year presidential cycle, mid-term year Seasonally gets tougher after the end of April. It stays suppressed until after August.

    Alt(red) count has new life at a 35% to 45% probability after today.

  6. pugsma said

    Also was ironic here today at the close versus the open is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is nearing a break down of the level set near the recent 4370 low. Thus this NSYE A-D Line condition would predict a lower low than 4370.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  7. pugsma said

    Just a devastating day technically in all aspects for the bulls and the bullish primary (white/green) wave count.

    • pugsma said

      Alt(red) count probably at least 45% now and could easily be viewed at closer to 55% to 60% after today. I will wait to see if the 62% Fib at 4313 can hold.

      • pugsma said

        Also expecting the alt(red) count minor 3 of major [C]-P2 wave down to 4076 to be relentless like today, without significant bounces to get out.

  8. pugsma said

    I have to warn that with this big bearish reversal today and the loss of the 50-day SMA at 4413, there could be some nasty gap down a go moves on Friday and Monday. Setup is technically there for the alt(red) count minor 3 of major [C]-P2 to really drop big time over the next week toward 4076 target, where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1.

    Time to be very careful with investment capital here.

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