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    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
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April 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 19, 2022

2:15 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4391, rose to hit 4456 (day’s high), dropped to 4440…

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count is 75% probable, and alternate (red) count is 25% probable.

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The major [1] of P3-C3 wave up is underway, but in the very early stages. The minor 1 of major [1] wave reached 4637. The drop to 4370 was the minor 2 wave, that retraced to just below the 50% Fib area of 4376. The minor 3 wave up is just getting underway. The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 5216.  Note: This primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4370.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing. Major [A]-P2 ended at 4115 and the major [B]-P2-C3 topped at 4637. Now the major [C]-P2 wave down is headed toward the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4381 and now the minor 2 wave bounce is head to the 38%/50% Fibs at 4478/4509. Once minor 2 completes, the minor 3 wave down should target 1.62*minor 1 target it at 4063. There is a major [C]=[A] target at 3933 to complete P2. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4637.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

9 Responses to “April 19th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    When the AAII weekly bullish sentiment drops below 20% , as it did last week; Look at this 30 of 31 (96% probability) stat for the the SP500 to rise +20% over the next 12 months. 20% high from 4370 is at 5244. My major [1]-P3 target is 5347.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1516484424845885441?s=21&t=la3IaXq5zPUm_ej1oVcrew

  2. PHIL V said

    Any price targets updates for each of the 5 minute or minuette waves in the minor 3 wave up, other than the 2 listed (primary) on the 15 min chart?

    • pugsma said

      Look at the SP500, 60-min and 4-hour charts. Those charts show the tentative place holders for the minuette and minute degree waves of minor 3.

      Need to get the minuette wave i of minor (1) complete to get better estimates.

  3. Anjali Tewari said

    With us reaching 4471 in a 5 wave move up – does that negate the chances of red or just mean that it could still play out to a higher level ?

    Based on today’s price action is there a level which can give an earlier signal of red potentially playing out vs waiting for the break of the lows at 4387 ….

    • pugsma said

      The alt (red) minor 2 wave is valid up to 4637. At 4471 it hasn’t even reached the 38% Fib of 4478. And a more typical minor 2 would reach at the 50%/62% Fib area at 4509 to 4536.

      • pugsma said

        That said above the 62% Fib of 4536, the primary (white/green) wave count gets even more probable than the 75% it’s at now. Above 4536, it will have cleared all the key moving averages again and with all of them turning up and aligned bullish.

  4. pugsma said

    The SP500 opens at 4488, just below the key 200-day SMA level at 4496.

  5. pugsma said

    Keep an eye on the NYSE A-D Line cumulative. If it breaks out first to a new high above where the SP500 reached 4637, then the SP500 will very likely break above 4637.

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