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April 6th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 6, 2022

3:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4526 to 4494, dropped quickly to 4460 and traded sideways, bounced to 4498, dropped to 4450 (day’s low), rallied to 4503…

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: With the SP-500 at 4460 and just slightly above the primary (white/green) count invalidation point of 4417, two alternate counts must also be considered. The primary (white/green) count is 55% probable, the alt(blue) count is 25% probable, and the alt(red) count is 20% probable.

  1. The primary (white/green) count s that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The major [1] of P3-C3 wave is underway. The minor 1 of major [1] reached 4417. The minor 2 pull-back ended near the 88% Fib (4151) at 4158. The minor 3 wave ended at 4637, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 =4646.  The minor 4 wave has reached 4460, which is in the 38% Fib target area of 4455. Once the minor 4 wave completes, the minor 5 wave up has a minor 5 = minor 1 target at 4762 to complete major [1]-P3.  Note: This primary (white/green) wave count is valid as long as minor 4 remains above the minor 1 of major [1] high at 4417.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that major [1]-P3-C3 topped at 4637 and now a major [2] wave down is underway to the 50%/62% Fibonacci of major [1] at 4376/4314. Note: The alt(blue) count is valid above the P2 low at 4115.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [B]-P2-C3 topped at 4637 and now a major [C]-P2 wave down is headed toward the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 at 3821. There is a major [C]=[A] target at 3933. Note: The alt(red) count is valid below the P1 high at 4819.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “April 6th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    All the wave count options are back on the table with the drop to 4460 today.

  2. pugsma said

    OK I’ve added the wave count detail down to the 15-min chart for the SP500 for all three completing wave counts.

    Breaking back above 4546 pivot area is a key for the primary (white/green) count.

  3. Brad Dantone said

    Thanks Steve.

  4. pugsma said

    AAII Weekly Sentiment drops to 25% Bulls, 41% Bears

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1512024286848032777?s=21&t=qTL980Ir4EgmUyFerh2nLw

  5. pugsma said

    Risk Appetite Ratios continue to be at Dec 2018 and March 2020 lows

    https://twitter.com/andrewthrasher/status/1512055712922456068?s=21&t=Ko3mEDRIw0c1xU6x_BcRfQ

  6. pugsma said

    So All the “Bad News” from the Fed is out there now:

    1) Possible two, 0.5 point rate hikes in May and June
    2) Target as high as 3.5% Fed Funds Rate
    3) $95 Billion/month in Fed Balance sheet run-off (QT)

    What happens with this Fed policy as inflation fall precipitously in the second half of 2022.

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