March 9th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 9, 2022
7:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4170 to 4223, rose steadily all day to hit 4294 (day’s high) and closed at 4278.
Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: The VIX close down -7.5% (red) at 32.45. This confirmed the second (and final) step of VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.
- NYMO: Closed at +14. It takes multiple (more than 2) consecutive NYMO closes above +20 to indicate a bullish trend change. Also, the NYMO has put in a two higher closing lows (-87, -52, -26) with the past two SP500 closing lows (4326, 4226, 4200). This a potential double +DIV on the NYMO vs SP500 and shows a slowing downward momentum which often leads to a SP500 trend change (i.e. in this case for down to up).
Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count is 55% probable, the alternate (blue) count is 30% probable, and the alternate (red) count is 15% probable.
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The P3-C3 wave is just in its very early stages with the first minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave reaching 4417, the 13-day EMA and down channel upper line area. The minor 2 pull-back ended near the 88% Fib (4151) at 4157. The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4646. Note: This primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4115 and is confirmed on a break above 4417.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that P2-C3 is playing out as a triple zig-zag correction to a target near 4043. The first zig-zag, major [W], was a move down from 4819 to 4232 followed by a major [X] wave up to a 62% Fib at 4595. The second zig-zag, major [Y] was a move down from 4595 to 4115 (where major [Y]=0.78[W]), followed by a major [X] wave up to a 62% Fib at 4417. The final third zig-zag, major [Z], is a move down from 4417 to a 4043, where major [Z]=0.78[Y]. Note: This alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 4417 and is confirmed on a break below 4115.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that P2-C3 is ongoing as major [A]-[B]-[C] zig-zag correction to the 38% Fib retrace of P1 near 3821. The major [A]-P2 wave completed at 4223. The major [B]-P2 wave was a 62% Fib retrace at 4595. Now major [C]-P2 wave is now headed low towards a target of major [C]=1.238[A] at 3779 to [C]=1.62[A] at 3629. Within major [C], wave minor 1 ended at 4115. The minor 2 wave completed at 4417, which was the 62% Fib target of 4413. The minor 3 of major [C] wave target is at 3826, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Note: This alternate (red) wave count is valid below 4417 and is confirmed on a break below 4043.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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