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March 3rd, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 3, 2022

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4385, quick hit 4417 (day’s high), dropped to 4345 and closed at 4363.

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed near +15. After yesterday’s close at +25, we failed to get a 2nd consecutive close above +20. Several consecutive closes of the NYMO above +20 is often confirmation of a new bull impulse wave. So far since the early January high at 4819, only a single close of +20 has been registered in early February.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed red today at 30.48.  This is the confirming step 3 of a the 3 stop VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count is 70% probable, and the alternate (blue) count is 30% probable. 

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The P3-C3 wave is just in its very early stages with the first minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave reaching 4389, the 13-day EMA and down channel upper line area. The minor 2 pull-back ended just below the 38% Fib of 4285 at 4279. The minor 3 wave is underway with an initial target of 1.62*minor 1 at 4723. Within minor 3, wave (1) of minor 3 ended at 4417. Wave (2) was a retrace to the 50% Fib at 4345. Now wave (3) up is underway with a target at 2.23(1) = 4653. Note however that on the 15-min chart there is a variation of this primary wave count that could have minor 2 playing out as an expanded flat to the 50%/62% Fib at 4254/4219. This version of the primary count takes over on a break below 4279.  Note: This primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4115 and is confirmed on a break above 4595.
  2. The alternate (blue) wave count is that P2-C3 is ongoing as major [A]-[B]-[C] zig-zag correction to the 38% Fib retrace of P1 near 3821. The major [A]-P2 wave completed at 4223. The major [B]-P2 wave was a 62% Fib retrace at 4595. Now major [C]-P2 is now headed low towards a target of major [C]=[A] at 3999. Within major [C], wave minor 1 ended at 4115. The minor 2 wave completed at 4417, which was the 62% Fib target of 4413. Assuming the minor 2 ended at 4417, the minor 3 of major [C] wave target is at 3826, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  Note: This alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 4595 and is confirmed on a break below 4115.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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