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February 5th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 5, 2022

Friday, 2-4-22 EOD: The opened flat from 4477, dropped to 4464, rose to 4500, dropped to 4451 (day’s low), rallied to 4539 and closed at 4500.

Key Market Comment: The SP500 P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here was that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative will now need to break out to a new all-time high to confirm a bull wave impulse per the alternate (blue) count.

Technical Indicators: See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: Closed higher at -20. On Wed, Feb 2nd, the NYMO close at +13. Closes above +20 are needed to initiate a new bull impulse wave higher per the alternate (blue) wave count. 
  2. VIX: Closed down a 23.22.

Wave Count Options: The primary (red) count is 67% probable, while the alternate (blue) count is 33% probable.

  1. The primary (red) wave count has P1-C3 topped at 4819 in early January and now the P2 correction is underway to a least a 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 3821. Looking for P2 to play out as a 3-3-3 major [W]-[X]-[Y] double Zig-Zag. Minor A of major [W] completed at 4582 and minor B of major [W] retraced to 4749 (between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4767). The minor C of major [W] wave down completed at a target of 2.23*minor A at 4223. The major [X]-P2 wave bounce completed at 4595, which was the 62% Fib retrace of the 4819 to 4223 drop for major [W]-P2. Within major [X], minor A completed at 4453, minor B completed at 4292 and minor C wave reached 4595. The major [Y]-P2 wave down is now underway headed for the area of the 38% Fib of P1 at 3821. Minute (1) of minor A of major [Y] completed at 4451. Minor (2) of minor A retraced to 62% Fib at 4539. Now wave (3) fo minor A is headed for (3)=1.62(1) at 4306. The minor A of major [Y] target is at 4216, before a minor B bounce to a 50% Fib of 4406 and C=A fall to 4027, near where [Y=[W] at 3999.  Note: The primary (red) count remains valid below 4595 and is confirmed on break below 4451.
  2. The alternate (blue) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 4744 in late November and the P2-C3 wave played out as 3-3-5 expanded flat wave to the 23% Fib retrace of P1 at 2215. The P3-C3 wave is just in its very early stages and the first minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave reaching 4595. The minor 2 of major [1] wave retraced to the 38% Fib at 4451. Now the minor 3 wave up is headed for the 1.62*minor 1 target at 5054. Minute (1) of minor 3 should reach the 4679 area. Note: This alternate (blue) wave count is valid above the 4451 low for minor and is confirmed on a break above 4595.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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