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January 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2022

4:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4326 to 4335, quickly hit 4342, dropped to 4292 (days low), then rallied the rest of the close on the high at 4432.

Key Market Comment: The SP500 P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here was that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top.

Technical Indicators: See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. NYMO: Closed higher near -55. On Monday, Jan 24th, the NYMO produced a SP500 Buy Signal confirmation by closing back inside its lower BB.
  2. VIX: Closed down a 27.66. This is red VIX close after the VIX closed back inside its upper BB on Thursday, Jan 27th. This confirms the 2nd step of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.
  3. SP500 vs its BB: On Wednesday, Jan 26th the SP500 Closed at 4350 back inside its lower BB (4329) confirming its SP500 Buy Signal.

Wave Count Options: The primary (red) count is 67% probable, while the alternate (blue) count is 33% probable.

  1. The primary (red) wave count has P1-C3 topped at 4819 in early January and now the P2 correction is underway to a least a 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 3821. Looking for P2 to play out as a 3-3-3 major [W]-[X]-[Y] double Zig-Zag. Minor A of major [W] completed at 4582 and minor B of major [W] retraced to 4749 (between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4767). The minor C of major [W] wave down completed at a target of 2.23*minor A at 4223. The major [X]-P2 wave bounce is underway, which should target the area at the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 4521 to 4593. With in major [X], minor A completed at 4451, minor B completed at 4292 and now minor C wave is headed towards a C=A target at 4520 to C=1.38A at 4606. Note: The primary (red) count remains valid below 4819 and is confirmed on break below 4223.
  2. The alternate (blue) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 4744 in late November and the P2-C3 wave played out as 3-3-5 expanded flat wave to the 23% Fib retrace of P1 at 2215. The P3-C3 wave is just in its very early stages and the first minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave is likely headed to the 4819 high. Note: This alternate (blue) wave count is valid above the 4223 low and is confirmed on a break above 4819.

House Keeping: I will be away on a much need vacation all of next week, Saturay Jan 29th to Sunday Feb 6th. The next blog update will be on Monday, Feb 7th. I will however try to check in with in the comments section with some daily commentary. If I find a free little time, I might even update a chart or two.

Have a great weekend and next week!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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