January 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2022
4:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4326 to 4335, quickly hit 4342, dropped to 4292 (days low), then rallied the rest of the close on the high at 4432.
Key Market Comment: The SP500 P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here was that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top.
Technical Indicators: See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: Closed higher near -55. On Monday, Jan 24th, the NYMO produced a SP500 Buy Signal confirmation by closing back inside its lower BB.
- VIX: Closed down a 27.66. This is red VIX close after the VIX closed back inside its upper BB on Thursday, Jan 27th. This confirms the 2nd step of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.
- SP500 vs its BB: On Wednesday, Jan 26th the SP500 Closed at 4350 back inside its lower BB (4329) confirming its SP500 Buy Signal.
Wave Count Options: The primary (red) count is 67% probable, while the alternate (blue) count is 33% probable.
- The primary (red) wave count has P1-C3 topped at 4819 in early January and now the P2 correction is underway to a least a 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 3821. Looking for P2 to play out as a 3-3-3 major [W]-[X]-[Y] double Zig-Zag. Minor A of major [W] completed at 4582 and minor B of major [W] retraced to 4749 (between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4767). The minor C of major [W] wave down completed at a target of 2.23*minor A at 4223. The major [X]-P2 wave bounce is underway, which should target the area at the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 4521 to 4593. With in major [X], minor A completed at 4451, minor B completed at 4292 and now minor C wave is headed towards a C=A target at 4520 to C=1.38A at 4606. Note: The primary (red) count remains valid below 4819 and is confirmed on break below 4223.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 4744 in late November and the P2-C3 wave played out as 3-3-5 expanded flat wave to the 23% Fib retrace of P1 at 2215. The P3-C3 wave is just in its very early stages and the first minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave is likely headed to the 4819 high. Note: This alternate (blue) wave count is valid above the 4223 low and is confirmed on a break above 4819.
House Keeping: I will be away on a much need vacation all of next week, Saturay Jan 29th to Sunday Feb 6th. The next blog update will be on Monday, Feb 7th. I will however try to check in with in the comments section with some daily commentary. If I find a free little time, I might even update a chart or two.
Have a great weekend and next week!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
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