January 26th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 26, 2022
7:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4356 to 4407, dropped to 4390, rallied to 4451 (days high), dropped hard to 4305 (days low) and closed at 4350.
Key Market Comment: It’s possible now that the P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top.
Technical Indicators: See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: Closed at -80 with SP500 at 4350 maintaining the +DIV with respect to the -87 close in early December 2022 when the SP500 closed at 4500.
- VIX: Closed at 31.96 remain above its upper BB. Thus no VIX based SP500 Buy signal yet. Also, the VIX closed above where it closed in early December 2022, eliminating its potential -DIV.
- SP500 vs its BB: Closed at 4350 back inside its lower BB (4329) confirming its SP500 Buy Signal.
Wave Count Options: The primary (white/green) count is 51% probable, while the alternate (red) count is 49% probable.
- The original primary (white/green) and wave count is that the major [3]-P1-C3 wave peaked at 4819 on Jan 4th, 2022 and what has playing out is a major [4]-P1 wave correction to just above the 38% Fib retrace of major [3], which is at 4115. Minor A of major [4] was the initial drop from 4819 to 4582. The minor B wave retraced to between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4769 at 4749. The wave down from 4749 top 4223 has been a minor C wave, that reached a target of 2.23*minor A at 4220. Now that the major [4]-P1 wave is complete, the major [5]-P1 will make a new high above 4819, where major [5]=[1] at 5264. The first minute (1) of minor 5 wave looks like a leading diagonal that completed at 4451. The minute (2) retraced to a 62% Fib at 4305. Now minute (3) should target 1.62(1) at 4675. Breaking above 4451 would confirm. However, note that on the 15-min and 60-min charts there is another version of the primary (white/green) count that on a break below 4223 has the minor C of major [4]-P1 wave extending towards 4115.
- The alternate (red) wave count has P1-C3 topped at 4819 and now the P2 correction is underway to a least a 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 3821. Looking for P2 to play out as a 3-3-3 major [W]-[X]-[Y] double Zig-Zag. Minor A of major [W] completed at 4582 and minor B of major [W] retraced to 4749 (between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4767). The minor C of major [W] wave down completed at a target of 2.23*minor A at 4223. The major [X]-P2 wave bounce is underway, which should target the area at the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 4521 to 4593. Minor W of major [X] completed at 4451, minor X of major [X] at 4305 and now minor Y is headed towards a Y=W target at 4533. However, note that on the 15-min and and 60-min charts there is another version of the alternate (red) count that is a 5-3-5, major [A]-[B]-[C] that has a major [A]-P2 wave down to 4214 is still underway before a major [B]-P2 bounce and major [C]-P2 drop to 3821.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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