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January 25th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 25, 2022

5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4410 to 4367, dropped to 4287 (today’s low), rallied to 4411 (today’s high) and closed at 4356.

Key Market Comment: It’s possible now that the P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top.

Technical Indicators:  See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. One (NYMO) of the three potential SP500 Buy Signals was confirmed on Monday, 1-24-22. The NYMO closed at -79 back inside it’s lower BB confirming the NYMO Based SP500 Buy Signal.
  2. With the NYMO green close on Monday at -79 vs -86 on Friday, there is confirmed +DIV on the NYMO (-87, -86) vs SP500 (4500, 3398). The NYMO looks to have closed green again today, 4-25-22 with a red SP500.
  3. There still potential -DIV on the VIX (31,31) vs SP500 (4500, 4356) closing prices from early December to today, 2-25-22.
  4. Neither VIX based SP500 Buy nor the SP500 based SP500 Buy signals have not yet trigger as both are still outside their respective BB.

Wave Count Options: The primary (white/green) count is 51% probable, while the alternate (red) count is 49% probable.

  1. The original primary (white/green) and wave count is that the major [3]-P1-C3 wave peaked at 4819 on Jan 4th, 2022 and what has playing out is a major [4]-P1 wave correction to just above the 38% Fib retrace of major [3], which is at 4115. Minor A of major [4] was the initial drop from 4819 to 4582. The minor B wave retraced to between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4769 at 4749. The down from 4749 top 4223 has been a minor C wave, that reached a target of 2.23*minor A at 4220. Now that the major [4]-P1 wave is complete, the major [5]-P1 will make a new high above 4819, where major [5]=[1] at 5264.
  2. The alternate (red) wave count has P1-C3 topped at 4819 and now the P2 correction is underway to a least a 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 3821. Looking for P2 to play out as a 3-3-3 major [W]-[X]-[Y] double Zig-Zag. Minor A of major [W] completed at 4582 and minor B of major [W] retraced to 4749 (between the 62%/78% Fibs of 4729/4767). The minor C of major [W] wave down completed at a target of 2.23*minor A at 4223. The major [X]-P2 wave bounce is underway, which should target the area at the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 4521 to 4593. Note that on the 15-min and and 60-min charts there is another version of the alternate (red) count that is a 5-3-5, major [A]-[B]-[C] that has a major [A]-P2 wave down to 4180 still underway before a major [B]-P2 bounce and major [C]-P2 drop to 3821.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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