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December 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 3, 2021

4:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4577 to 4590, quickly hit the day’s high of 4609, fell most of the day to a low of 4495 and rallied to close at 4538.

Technical Conditions:

  1. VIX closed a 2nd day back inside its upper BB, but did not close below yesterdays close. Thus the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy step 3 was not confirmed today. However, since the VIX remained below its upper BB today, the step 3 can be confirmed with a red VIX close on Monday, Dec 6th.
  2. The NYMO closed down near -65 from yesterdays -50 but above the -87 close on Wed, Dec 1st when the SP500 closed at 4511. Strictly speaking this is not a NYMO +DIV vs SP500 since the SP500 closed at 4538 above the Dec 1st close of 4511. However, with the new intra-day SP500 low at 4495 along the intra-day NYMO never approaching -87, it can be considered a positive for future SP500 price movement higher. It shows underlying broad market support during today’s new intra-day SP500 low.
  3. The $CPC (Put/Call Ratio) closed at 1.08 on Dec 2nd and was at 1.15 intra-day today. $CPC closes above 0.90, particularly above 1.0, is typical of an important bottom (i.e. minor 2).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 will play out as a 3-3-3 double zig-zag. The first minute (w) zig-zag or minor 2 ended at 4585 on the drop from the minor 1 high at 4743 . The connecting minute (x) wave retraced to 4653. Now the minute (y) drop likely completed today as it reached the (y)=(w) target at 4495 (white/green labels), near the 50% Fib at 4511. IF the SP500 breaks below 4495 early next week, there is also a potential triple zig-zag alt (blue) count that could reach the (z)=(w) target of 4451, near the 62% Fib of 4455. Note: The primary (white/green) or alt (blue) count for minor 2 of major [5] remains valid above 4279, the major [4] low.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

19 Responses to “December 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Cobra indicates tonight that todays lower, low on SPY (SP500) satisfies all his statistical conditions listed over the past week for the bottom.

  2. pugsma said

    Potential double bottom at 4505 and 4495 (4500 average) against todays 4609 high has a measure move up to 4609 + (4609 – 4500) = 4718.

    That’s a good the minute (1) of minor 3 Target area.

    • Francisco Jesus Benavente said

      I understand 4718 is the target, but I cannot grasp when. What is the timeframe? The 10th or the 17th?

  3. pugsma said

    $CPC closed near 1.17.

    Rocket fuel is loaded.

    https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1466894540867047426?s=21

  4. Robert Warmington said

    Steve, does your theory of the market not bottoming on a Friday, enough to let the market move lower early next week ?

    • pugsma said

      There is no “theory” of markets not bottoming on a Friday. It’s all about statistical probabilities. The market can and has made key bottoms on each trading day of the week. I don’t have historical numbers for key bottoms on each day of the week, but Mon-Tues are historical more probable than Wed-Fri.

      That said since the 2020 March bottom, we seem several key swing lows made on Wed-Fri.

  5. Robert Warmington said

    Got it. Theory was the wrong word and it sure would catch a lot of those bears holding hands yesterday to see a big gap up on Monday.

  6. pdawg44 said

    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/can-the-market-bottom-on-a-friday/

    some stats..

  7. Basil said

    Good Morning.
    IS TSLA still following your CC Archive? thank you

  8. pugsma said

    An intra-day move of above 4609 would be very constructive for setting the minor 2 low at 4495.

    It would also trigger the double bottom (4505 and 4495), with a measured move target at 4609 + (4609 – 4500) = 4718.

    • pugsma said

      The 13-day EMA sits at 4606 and the 34-day EMA at 4597.

      The SP-500 pushing through this short-term moving average area and above 4609 is a big key to setting the bottom.

  9. pugsma said

    Stocks Up! Boiler Up!

    It’s Good to be #1 !

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1467915233238863872?s=21

  10. Amr Fouda said

    Is the latest MRNA chart in CCA still current? Are we still in [2] or C3? We slid through the .5 and .618 retracements today. Target .78 at $247? Thanks.

    • pugsma said

      Technically the MRNA count for major [2]-C3 is valid above the C2 low at $210.

      Fundamentally MRNA count could be in trouble for a deeper C2 wave, if it’s confirmed COVID-19 has mutated with the common cold virus, effective ending the need for vaccines. Moderna will need to find a new use for their technology on other diseases.

  11. patrick2302 said

    Do you mind updating btc chart as well in view of the latest crash? Thank you

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