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November 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 26, 2021

10:15 am EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4703 to 4664, dropped to 4611…

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 1 peaked at 4743 and a minor 2 wave down to the 38% Fib area of 4559 is underway as simple 5-3-5, zig-zag. This first five wave drop to 4653 is the minute (a) or minor 2 wave. The minute (b) retraced to 4703, between the 50%/62% Fib at 4699/4707. Finally the minute (c) wave should target the (a)=(c)=4613 to (c)=1.62(a) area at 4557. 

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

8 Responses to “November 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. orion.colorado said

    NYMO buy signal conditions appear to be resetting as it closed above the lower bb today. Along with VIX reset above upper bb. Great chart/tool to have in the quiver, if I haven’t stated it lately: thanks for posting that in the sidebar for all to use.

  2. pugsma said

    So the SP500 drop from 4743 to 4585 is clearly a simple 3-wave, zig-zag for minor 2. The base case, primary (white/green) count is that this is a single 3-wave, zig-zag for minor 2.

    The alternate (blue) count is a double zig-zag, minor 2 (w)-(x)-(y). The (w) need at 4585. The (x) with typically retrace to the 38% to 50% Fib at 4645 to 4664. Then the (y) wave will drop below 4589 down to the 4545 to 4394 pivot.

    • pugsma said

      Cobra on Friday put up some stats for why a lower, low than 4585 is more likely based on the big VIX move up and the weekly SP500 bearish engulfing candle.

      For example, for the last 20 years the Cobra stats showed that 71% (17 of 24 times) the SP500 weekly bearish engulfing candle led to a lower low. However, since the March 2020 Cycle II low, this stat failed 3 of 3 times (100%) and a lower, low on the SP500 did not follow a weekly bearish engulfing candle. Things have been a different since the March 2020 low and bearish historical stats have failed often.

  3. leonard tan said

    Many thx for MRNA chart !
    Can u update it pls?

  4. Alonso Quixano said

    Hi Steve,

    If at all possible, I would be grateful for updates to THCX which looks like a failed breakout? And also JETS. Grateful for all of the work that you do on this blog.

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