November 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 24, 2021
12:00 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4691 to 4675, dropped to 4660 and rose to 4695…
Technical Conditions NYMO and VIX:
Based on the NYMO being below the lower BB for 4 trading days (11/17, 11/18, 11/19, 11/22) and oversold below -40 for the four trading days (11/18, 11/19, 11/22, 11/23), it’s clear the SP500 is in the minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave. There are two scenario’s listed below in how the minor 2 wave can play out. Note: On Tuesday, 11/22 the NYMO closed back inside it’s lower BB, producing a SP500 Buy Signal. This would favor the primary (white/green) wave count. Also, the VIX closed 2 consecutive days (11/22, 11/23) above it’s upper BB. This sets up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger that will be confirmed on VIX close back inside it’s upper BB.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 1 peaked at 4719 in early November and the last two weeks has seen a minor 2 flat wave play out. The minute (a) of minor 2 ended 4630 and the minute (b) of minor 2 wave completed at 4743 and the minute (c) of minor 2 wave targeted the (c)=(a) area at 4654 (hit 4653). The minor 3 wave up is underway to target of at least 5093, where minor 3 = minor 1. The first minute (1) wave of minor 3 should break to a new high above 4743. Note: A break above 4743 will confirm this primary (white/green) wave count.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 1 peaked at 4743 and a minor 2 wave down to the 38% Fib area of 4559 is underway as simple 5-3-5, zig-zag. This first five wave drop to 4653 is the minute (a) or minor 2 wave. The minute (b) wave is underway and should retrace to a 50%/62% Fib at 4699/4707. Finally the minute (c) wave should target the (c)=1.62(a) area at 4552. Note: A break below 4653 will confirm this alternate (blue) wave count.
House Keeping: US Stock Market is closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday, Nov 25th. The market will be open for a shortened morning session on Friday, Nov 26th. The next blog post will be Monday, Nov 29th.
Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend !!!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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