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August 5th, 2021: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on August 5, 2021

5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from from 4402 to 4409, hit 4422, traded sideways then rallied to close on the high (a new all-time high) at 4430.

Key Index Levels to watch:

SP-500 Ley Level: 4373 (closed at 4429)

IWM Key Level: 215.38 (closed at 222.03)

QQQ Key Level: 352.04 (closed at 369.67)

Note 1: Breaking below the listed key levels could signal the major [3]-P1-C3 top is in place per the primary (white/green) wave count:

Note 2: Holding above these key levels and then breakout to new all-time highs will mean that alternate (blue) count is more like likely, however it could also simply the that the primary (white/green) count is extending a just little higher before breaking down below the key levels listed.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up from -12 to near +10.  The NYMO needs to close above zero (did this on Thurs July 29th and again today Aug 3rd) and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the alternate (blue) wave count. Thus, far there have been no NYMO closes above +20 since early July.
  2. VIX: The VIX down -3.8 % at 17.28.
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D Line cumulative is attempting to break-out to a new all-time high, which would confirm the very bullish alternate (blue) count. However, the A-D line cumulative last made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4394 in early July (2nd).  Thus, there is a still a bearish negative divergence on the NYSE A-D Line cumulative vs the new all-time SP-500 high set today at 4430. Thus, until this -DIV clears the bearish primary (white/green) count calling for a major [4] drop to 4137 is still very much in play.

Seasonality: The SP-500 average year seasonality shows new all-time highs in late August then some chop in Sept-Oct, but is much higher at the end of the year per the alternate (blue) wave count.. However, the 4-hr year Presidential Cycle post election, shows a potential significant sell-off into October per the primary (white/green) count major [4] wave.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP5000 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analys

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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