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July 1st, 2021: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on July 1, 2021

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4297 to 4301, climbed all day to close on the high (an all-time high) at 4320.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up from -12 to near the zero line.  The NYMO needs to close above zero and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the primary (white/green) wave count.
  2. VIX: The VIX down -2.2 % at 15.48.
  3. Chart PatternBull Flag with a target of 4419.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative last made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257 back on June 15th. The A-D line cumulative looks to have closed at new all-time high today along with the SP500 all-time closing high at 4320. This would wipe out the a negative divergence with June 15th.

Seasonality: The DJIA 4-year Presidential Cycle (Post-Election Years last 116 years) shows a bullish July Pattern.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to 4164, near the typical 50% Fib target of 4157. The minor 3 wave up is underway should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4358.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above 4164 the minor 2 of major [5] low.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 is extending to the major [3]=1.38[1] target at 4402. Within major [3], minor 4 ended at 4164. The final minor 5 wave up is underway and currently in a minute (3) of minor 5 wave headed for 4364, where (3)=(1).  Once the major [3] wave ends near 4402 in July/August, there will be a major [4] correction to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4072 to 3856 into Sept/Oct before the major [5]-P1 wave extends to near 5000 into the spring of 2022. Note: The alternate (blue) count is free to end major [3] anywhere from the July 1st high at 4320 to 4402 in July/Aug.

House Keeping: Tomorrow, July 2nd is a summer Friday, so no blog posts. Monday July 5th is the USA 4th of July (Independence Day) Holiday observed, so the US Markets are closed. Next blog post will be Tuesday, July 6th.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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