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June 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 24, 2021

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4241 to 4257, rose all day to hit a new all-time high of 4271 and closed at 4266 (new all-time closing high).

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near the zero line.  The VIX needs to close above zero and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the primary (white/green) wave count.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -2.1 % at 15.97.  
  3. Chart PatternBull Flag with a target of 4419.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257 back on June 15th. The A-D line cumulative is still slightly below its June 15th all-time high with the SP-500 closing a new all-time high of 4266. This is a negative divergence and needs to be cleared.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to 4164, near the typical 50% Fib target of 4157. The minor 3 wave up is underway should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4356.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above 4164 the minor 2 of major [5] low.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 is extending to the major [3]=1.38[1] target at 4402.  Once the major [3] wave ends near 4402 in July/August, there will be a major [4] correction to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4072 to 3856 into Sept/Oct before the major [5]-P1 wave extends to near 5000 into the spring of 2022. Note: The alternate (blue) count is free to end major [3] anywhere from the June 24th high at 4271 to 4402 in July/Aug.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

10 Responses to “June 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. jrw said

    Cumulative NYAD now at an ATH — hopefully this carries over into the close

  2. pugsma said

    Here is an interesting SP500 historical study when the 1st half (1H) of the year closes up > +10% (now at 4280, +14% with 3 days to go).

    Years 1929 to 2020:
    20 of 27 (74%) up an average of +5.6% (253 + 4280 = 4532).

    Recently Years 1988 to 2020:
    10 of 10 (100%) up an average of +10.2% (436 + 4280 = 4716)

    https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1409466614186233858?s=21

    Looks like my primary (white/green) wave count agrees well or even the alt (blue count with a mild 23% Fib dip from major [3] at 4403 to 4072 in the fall followed by a strong year end recovery to 4500+.

  3. pugsma said

    I just did an initial chart for JPM in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.

    I also just updated REGN in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.

  4. pugsma said

    House Keeping: For those that are quarterly subscribers, the PUG Stock Market Analysis automated payment system should be sending out a reminder notice this week via email to sign-up for Q3-2021 (July-Sept) Premium Service. If it’s not in your inbox, then check your spam folder.

  5. pugsma said

    The are two concerning things on key indicators:

    1) NYMO stopped just below zero and is falling at -20 today intra-day

    2) NYSE A-D Line cumulative did NOT confirm the new all-time high on the SP500 and is potentially putting in a significant negative divergence.

    • bogiedoc said

      and another day and another split market: Q’s up 1% and other indexes unchanged to down 1%. Based on your comments and negative divergences this looks more like a topping market.

      • pugsma said

        Negative divergences can persist or even clear as the SP500 marches high. This is just something to keep an eye on.

        • bogiedoc said

          Agree. No way going short. They can persist. But most MOMO indicators are flashing negative div on the dailys going back to the early May highs.

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