PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500, QQQ, IWM, Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more.

June 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 24, 2021

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4241 to 4257, rose all day to hit a new all-time high of 4271 and closed at 4266 (new all-time closing high).

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near the zero line.  The VIX needs to close above zero and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the primary (white/green) wave count.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -2.1 % at 15.97.  
  3. Chart PatternBull Flag with a target of 4419.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257 back on June 15th. The A-D line cumulative is still slightly below its June 15th all-time high with the SP-500 closing a new all-time high of 4266. This is a negative divergence and needs to be cleared.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to 4164, near the typical 50% Fib target of 4157. The minor 3 wave up is underway should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4356.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above 4164 the minor 2 of major [5] low.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 is extending to the major [3]=1.38[1] target at 4402.  Once the major [3] wave ends near 4402 in July/August, there will be a major [4] correction to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4072 to 3856 into Sept/Oct before the major [5]-P1 wave extends to near 5000 into the spring of 2022. Note: The alternate (blue) count is free to end major [3] anywhere from the June 24th high at 4271 to 4402 in July/Aug.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

10 Responses to “June 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. jrw said

    Cumulative NYAD now at an ATH — hopefully this carries over into the close

  2. pugsma said

    Here is an interesting SP500 historical study when the 1st half (1H) of the year closes up > +10% (now at 4280, +14% with 3 days to go).

    Years 1929 to 2020:
    20 of 27 (74%) up an average of +5.6% (253 + 4280 = 4532).

    Recently Years 1988 to 2020:
    10 of 10 (100%) up an average of +10.2% (436 + 4280 = 4716)


    Looks like my primary (white/green) wave count agrees well or even the alt (blue count with a mild 23% Fib dip from major [3] at 4403 to 4072 in the fall followed by a strong year end recovery to 4500+.

  3. pugsma said

    I just did an initial chart for JPM in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.

    I also just updated REGN in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.

  4. pugsma said

    House Keeping: For those that are quarterly subscribers, the PUG Stock Market Analysis automated payment system should be sending out a reminder notice this week via email to sign-up for Q3-2021 (July-Sept) Premium Service. If it’s not in your inbox, then check your spam folder.

  5. pugsma said

    The are two concerning things on key indicators:

    1) NYMO stopped just below zero and is falling at -20 today intra-day

    2) NYSE A-D Line cumulative did NOT confirm the new all-time high on the SP500 and is potentially putting in a significant negative divergence.

    • bogiedoc said

      and another day and another split market: Q’s up 1% and other indexes unchanged to down 1%. Based on your comments and negative divergences this looks more like a topping market.

      • pugsma said

        Negative divergences can persist or even clear as the SP500 marches high. This is just something to keep an eye on.

        • bogiedoc said

          Agree. No way going short. They can persist. But most MOMO indicators are flashing negative div on the dailys going back to the early May highs.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

%d bloggers like this: