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June 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 22, 2021

8:30 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4224, dipped to 4217 and then rallied all today to hit 4256 and close at 4246.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -21 from -25 on Monday.  The VIX needs to close above zero and then close above +20 to confirm a strong minor 3 impulse wave higher per the primary (white/green) wave count.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -6.9 % at 16.66.  Yesterday the VIX closed below its upper confirming the first step of the VIX Based, SP500 Buy Signal. Today the VIX closed red and was the final confirming step of the VIX based SP500 Buy Signal.
  3. Chart PatternBull Flag with a target of 4419.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257 back on June 15th. The A-D line cumulative is now well below its June 15th all-time high with the SP-500 near 4257. This is a negative divergence.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to the typical 50% Fib at target of 4157. The minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4257+.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above 4164 the minor 2 of major [5] low.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 is extending to the major [3]=1.38[1] target at 4402.  Once the major [3] wave ends near 4402 in July/August, there will be a major [4] correction to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4072 to 3856 into Sept/Oct before the major [5]-P1 wave extends to near 5000 into the spring of 2022. Note: The alternate (blue) count is free to end anywhere from the June 15th high at 4257 to 4402.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

21 Responses to “June 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thanks, bullish! 🙂

  2. pugsma said

    Here’s one in the strange Market historical stats category,

    Excessive one day strength (Monday) begets weakness 1 week to 2 months out…


  3. pugsma said

    So far The SP500 absolutely refuses to have a 2nd year correction like 2010 or 1983.


  4. pugsma said

    FYI the alternate (blue) count is my preferred count for the next year time frame to a May/June 2022 peak of P1-C3. I’ve been trying to find the best way to introduce it and I spend a good deal of time after the close last night adding it to the SP500, QQQ and IWM.

    • pugsma said

      I’m thinking the SP500 major [4]-P1 wave will be something like the shon 23% Fib, -7.5% correction.

    • pugsma said

      Probably a slow summer creep higher for major [3]-P1 at 4300 to 4400.

    • pugsma said

      Recall the 4300 to 4400 area in July/August 2021 has been my primary (white/green) count P1-C3 top since last September 2020.

      What I’m thinking now is that will only be the major [3]-P1 top.

      P1-C1 lasted 2 years, 2 months from March 2009 to May 2011. It was a +106% gain.

      So far P1-C3 has only lasted 1 year, 3 months and only gained +94%

      P1-C3 should be longer in time and more gain that P1-C1.

    • Waitingfornano said

      Ah so basically that drop down to 4000s will clear the divergences and align price with the indicators again, clean up the sentiment, FED signals delaying action etc then we go higher.

      • pugsma said

        I think the bottom of major [4]-P1 occurs when the Fed stops talking about reducing (tapering) the $120B/month QE and finally does it.

  5. Waitingfornano said

    Of course these are not timing tools, but always worth looking at in conjunction with the counts. Fascinating to see which count comes through between the white and blue.


  6. pugsma said

    SP500 seasonality looks negative for next 100 (3 months).


  7. pugsma said

    House Keeping: No need to update the charts tonight. Also I maybe be driving down to visit my daughter and grandkids in St Louis tomorrow. Waiting to here back from her tomorrow morning. If I do, there won’t be a Thursday/Friday blog update. But my charts from last night are very clear.

    • aurelia0001 said

      Enjoy your time in St Louis and with the family!
      The name St Louis brings back very good memories of going up the Gateway Arch nearly 30 years ago when visiting the US of A.

  8. pugsma said

    When both My counts align bullish, then the indices ONLY GO UP! 💰💰💰😎

    • pugsma said

      I feel sad for the bears who last weekend where pounding their chest of the coming “crash!” The we so sure this week would be super bearish.

      • Jim Guthery said

        They did not get your memo…

        • pugsma said

          No memo for them to get unless a paying subscriber here. I kept radio silence on Twitter since June 11th. My Primary count works best when as few as possible know of it. It’s usually contrarian to the broad market view.

  9. pugsma said

    Still A couple non-confirmations with the new Sp500 high at 4270.

    1) NYSE A-D line cumulative still not at a new all-time high intra-day (close matters).

    2) NYMO still not above zero line (close matters).

  10. stevesumma said

    And we have a double top at 4257.

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