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June 21st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 21, 2021

5:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4166 to 4173, rose steadily all day to a high of 4226 and closed at 4225.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -20 from -54 on Friday.  The NYMO has closed two consecutive days below its lower BB and on Friday it closed also closed below -40This set up a NYMO based, SP500 Buy signal on Friday. The NYMO closed back inside it lower BB today to confirm the SP500 Buy signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -13.6.6 % at 17.89.  The VIX closed below its upper confirming the first step of the VIX Based, SP500 Buy Signal. The final confirming step is a red VIX close tomorrow.
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500 all-time high at 4257.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave retraced to the typical 50% Fib at target of 4157. The minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4688 going into the end the year 2021. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) wave should target 4257+.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid for minor 2 of major [5] above the major [4] low of 4057.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [5]-P1-C3 completed as an ending diagonal (ED) at 4257.  The P2 wave to at least the 23% Fib retrace of 3782 (-11% correction) is just getting underway. The first minor 1 wave of major [A]-P2 completed at 4164. The minor 2 wave has retraced to 4226, just above the 62% Fib of 4222. Once the minor 2 wave completes, the minor 3 will drop below the minor 1 low of 4164. Based on minor 2 ending at 4226, the minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 target is 4075.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid below the 4257 P1-C3 top and is confirmed on a break of the 4057 level.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

16 Responses to “June 21st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Note: Breaking above the all-time high of 4257, produces a “Giddy Up” wave minor 3 of major [5] confirmation.

  2. pugsma said

    Cobra now gun shy after his 100% (20 of 20) lower low than 4057 call failed in May. Now he says he has no confidence in his stat of 70% lower low than 4164 ahead. Why even look at historical stats if you can’t use them for trading?

    • pugsma said

      That’s why I focus almost entirely my indicators like the NYMO and VIX, SP500 buy signals. They said to buy the Friday close. I clearly articulated this in my Friday update. There was even a better buying opportunity in the Friday after hours with the SPY off another 1.0 (SP500 4155 equivalent).

  3. jrw said

    Cumulative NYAD nowhere close to making a new high, while SPX is within two points of its ATH. Should we be concerned?

    • pugsma said

      Yes, that’s a key indicator negative divergence that if not cleared soon can lead to a major top.

      • pugsma said

        The indices can’t linger here like during early June. They must bust a move much higher to clear it and confirm a strong minor 3 wave higher.

        • Waitingfornano said

          Would you say it needs to power through by tomorrow for the primary count to be valid?

          • pugsma said

            No. It never a one day make it break.

            Tops are a long process and IF the NYSE A-D line Cumulative struggles to make a new high and IF the NYMO struggles to close above 0 and more importantly above +20, then those key indicators are negatively diverging with new the SP500 price highs. That often signals a major top.

          • Waitingfornano said

            Thank you. So grateful I found Pugs. It has really given me confidence to trade my own trend trading system in the right direction of the swings. And also when to hold off and when to put the risk on the table.

  4. jmcaule said

    My 2c is we likely see a medium term high here somewhere between now and end of July due to slowing rate of change of growth. This would be a classic year 2 correction. Seems to fit pretty well with the blue alternate count.

    • pugsma said

      We are possibly due for a Major [4]-P1 correction (-10 to -15%) after July/August, not a P2 bear wave (-20% +). That will be the new alt (blue) count.

  5. pugsma said

    Tom McClellan was just on CNBC and he explained how he used the VIX above it’s upper BB to call the SP500 bottom on Friday. No mention of his father’s NYMO indicator below -40 AND below its lower BB that I use so well to call local SP500 bottoms. I guess he was just being modesty and not going to brag about his own families key indicator.

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