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June 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 18, 2021

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4221 to 4205, dropped to 4272, traded sideways and then dropped further to close at 4166.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -60 from -29 yesterday.  The NYMO has closed two consecutive days below its lower BB and today it closed below -40. This sets up a NYMO based, SP500 Buy signal. The NYMO must close back inside it lower BB to confirm the signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +16.6 % at 20.70.  The VIX closed above its upper BB. The sets up a VIX based, SP500 Buy signal. The VIX must close back below its upper BB to confirm the first step and then close red the next day to fully confirm the signal.
  3. SP500 Daily Bollinger Band (BB): The SP500 closed just slightly above its lower BB at 4166 vs 4161. Thus, today’s close just missed the third signal of the Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal: 1) the NYMO below its BB, 2) VIX above its BB and 3) SP500 below its BB.
  4. Chart PatternNone.
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500.

Seasonality: 4-Year Cycle, Post-Election Year DJIA Seasonality shows strong gains into July-August after a June low.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave is underway with a typical 50%/62% Fib retrace target of 4157 to 4133. Once minor 2 complete, the minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4680 going into the end the year 2021.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the major [4] low of 4057.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [5]-P1-C3 completed as an ending diagonal (ED) at 4257.  The P2 wave to a 23% to 38% Fib retrace of 3782 (-11% correction) to 3472 (-18% correction) is just getting underway. The first minor 1 wave of major [A]-P2 should target the 4086 pivot area and major [A]=P2 should target the 3770 pivot. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid below the 4257 P1-C3 top and is confirmed on a break of the 4057 level.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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