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June 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 18, 2021

5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4221 to 4205, dropped to 4272, traded sideways and then dropped further to close at 4166.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -60 from -29 yesterday.  The NYMO has closed two consecutive days below its lower BB and today it closed below -40. This sets up a NYMO based, SP500 Buy signal. The NYMO must close back inside it lower BB to confirm the signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +16.6 % at 20.70.  The VIX closed above its upper BB. The sets up a VIX based, SP500 Buy signal. The VIX must close back below its upper BB to confirm the first step and then close red the next day to fully confirm the signal.
  3. SP500 Daily Bollinger Band (BB): The SP500 closed just slightly above its lower BB at 4166 vs 4161. Thus, today’s close just missed the third signal of the Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal: 1) the NYMO below its BB, 2) VIX above its BB and 3) SP500 below its BB.
  4. Chart PatternNone.
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high along with the SP500.

Seasonality: 4-Year Cycle, Post-Election Year DJIA Seasonality shows strong gains into July-August after a June low.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702 and major [5]=[1] at 5098. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4257 as a leading diagonal (LD). The minor 2 wave is underway with a typical 50%/62% Fib retrace target of 4157 to 4133. Once minor 2 complete, the minor 3 wave should target 2.62*minor at 4680 going into the end the year 2021.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the major [4] low of 4057.

The new alternate (blue) is that major [5]-P1-C3 completed as an ending diagonal (ED) at 4257.  The P2 wave to a 23% to 38% Fib retrace of 3782 (-11% correction) to 3472 (-18% correction) is just getting underway. The first minor 1 wave of major [A]-P2 should target the 4086 pivot area and major [A]=P2 should target the 3770 pivot. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count as labeled remains valid below the 4257 P1-C3 top and is confirmed on a break of the 4057 level.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

21 Responses to “June 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Loving that 2.62 minor 3 !!

  2. KAIYU DENG said

    What probability would you put to each count? Personally I’ve almost never seen a count with leading diagonal turns out to be correct… Thanks & have a great weekend.

  3. pugsma said

    It’s important to realize when looking at the SP500 weekly chart that P1-C1 lasted from March 2009 to May 2011 (2 years, 2 months) and gained +106%.

    P1-C3 should be stronger (more gain) and last longer than P1-C1.

    So far P1-C3 is only 1 year, 3 months old with a +94% gain at 4257 from the 2192 C2 low.

    Thus P1-C3 per my primary (white/green) count should carry well into year 2022 and gain +115% at 4702 where major [5]=0.62[1] or +133% at 5099, where major [5]=[1].

    • pugsma said

      With those P1-C1 vs P1-C3 observations: a more likely scenario for a bearish alt(blue) count is a major [4]-P1 wave down to a 23% Fib retrace of major [3] (2966 to 4257) at 3960.

      Note major [3]=1.23[1] at 4245, so 4257 would make a good wave major [3]-P1 top.

      This really should be the alt(blue) count and not P1-C3 top at 4257. I’ll probably look at this on Monday’s update.

      • pugsma said

        Nothing changes with the primary (white/green) count. But IF the 4057 low breaks then I’m going to look for major [4]-P1 to bottom at the 23% Fib of 3960.

  4. hinge said

    Steve Do you ever consider Wave 5
    truncation in your Major wave count
    or have you only seen it in lower waves ?

    • pugsma said

      I don’t ever allow 5th wave truncation at any degree in my wave counts. I’ve found that in 11+ years I’ve never had to settle for this. I consider it to be lazy cop out to counting probably.

  5. pugsma said

    Also an interesting observation tonight is that the DJIA May peak was near 35,000 and the May low was near 33,500. This the DJIA took out its May low near 33,500 today and closed at 33,290. Since the DJIA rallied to about 34,750 in early June, the drop to this 33,250 area is a near perfect C=A retrace .

  6. pugsma said

    Even with all of Denali’s historical data calling for a June low between the 24th and the 29th, today’s move up from 4165 to 4220 (so far) looks like the June 18th 4165 could be the key June low.

    All day Friday and all weekend long, all I saw was analyst after analyst (including CNBC’s Jim Cramer) saying this week of June is “always bearish” and would lead to a massive market sell-off. Oops!

    • pugsma said

      All Friday long I heard for the talking heads “don’t buy, don’t buy!” LOL

      Yet all of PUG’s charts showed a bottom was at handed near the 50% Fib retrace on both SP500 and IWM.

      • pugsma said

        You should NEVER listen to the consensus view in the markets. My TA is almost always contrarian to the consensus view.

      • Waitingfornano said

        Thanks for this. I bought this. And also some options around the 4250 mark.

        Question for your chart service. Do you do ellioteave counts on currency? Just thinking they are aligned for a risk on environment.

        • pugsma said

          I have nor charted currencies (beyond a few USD charts over the past decade) and I don’t plan to add this to my service.

  7. pugsma said

    One of the SP500 count options I’m going to consider is that Major [3]-P1-C3 hasn’t topped yet and could top sometime in July/August around 4300 to 4400. Thus leading to a shallow major [4] wave correction of -7% to -10% to 4000 area this fall and a final major [5] heading above 5000+ Into 2022.

  8. pugsma said

    The 62% Fib retrace of the drop form 4257 to 4164 was at 4222. A break and close above the 62% Fib is NOT a good sign for the bears.

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