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June 9th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 9, 2021

4:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4227 to 4233, hit 4327, traded sideways and then closed down at 4220.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 15-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 15-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

37 Responses to “June 9th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Since the none of the indices have yet to make a new all-high, the bears still have the potential to pull-off one of the greatest rug pulls of all time.

    The $CPC (options put/call) closed Tuesday’s at 0.65 and is as low as it’s been all year; meaning most everyone long this market waiting for “the breakout” to new all-time highs.

    The bears need a big gap down trapping the bulls to pull it off. The bears could then force some panic selling to get the ball rolling on the minor 3 of major [A]-P2-C3 wave of the alt(red) count. Meaning this move up from 4057 to 4237 was a very deep minor 2 retrace of the bear alt(red) count.

    • pugsma said

      Bulls have it much easier, as they need just a small gap higher to make new all-time highs.

      SP500 hit 4237 vs 4238 (May 7th)
      IWM hit 233.64 vs 334.53 (early March)
      QQQ hit 339.29 vs 342.80 (late April)

    • pugsma said

      I will say the longer time the indices stall and fail to make new-highs, the more likely a failure (double top) occurs and the market takes a big drop.

      Bulls need a decisive resolution higher tomorrow or within the next few days.

    • Sagar Patel said

      Steve, I know you’ve stressed importance of NYAD closing above 20 for healthy bull moves…today was the 8th consecutive close above 20

  2. pugsma said

    Right back at the 4237 flat top level.

    I really like the minute (4) ascending triangle count on the SP500 that just completed wave e-(4) at 4219.

  3. pugsma said

    So everyone who bought the PUG “giddy up” call two weeks ago near 4150 are making good $ across SPY (+3%), IWM (+7%) and QQQ (+7%).

  4. pugsma said

    The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative breaking above the May 7th high two weeks ahead of the SP500 break above 4238 gave another great buy signal.

  5. pugsma said

    So now that the SP500 has made a new high in June, new highs in 6 straight months of 2021, we have the year 1983 scenario in play!

    IF the June SP500 peak exceeds the May 4238 Peak, then the SP500 will have made a new high in each of the first six months of the year. That’s only happened 4 times in history. Returns the balance of the year a very muted average of +0.9%. The most interesting year of the four listed is 1983, as the 2020 rally and key indicator bullish extremes are closely tied to to years 1982 and 2009 (see Chris Ciovacco’s historical TA work). Year 1983 peaked on June 21st and suffered a -10% drop into August time frame then traded flat to slightly up the balance of the year. https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1402075457034633219?s=21

  6. pugsma said

    Two weeks in a row AAII bearish sentiment at an extreme low of 20%

    https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

  7. pugsma said

    My plan is dumping my index longs into this move up to SP500 4308 area, which will either end minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 (primary white/green count) or minor 5 of major [5]-P1-C3 (alternate blue count).

    I’ve already booked some profits at the open today that were bought near 4150 giddy up call two weeks back. I would be 100% out on a break of yesterday’s low at 4219.

  8. kilroy said

    Steve,
    Thanks for your real time comments and your own trading details. Really appreciate it

    • pugsma said

      Your welcome. For 2021 I’m now up just over +20% in my investing account versus the SP500 up +12%. I’m heading back into cash for the summer months. The goal each yea is to beat the SP500 by trading my TA on the SP500.

      • pugsma said

        My older brother is also getting out this week based on my analysis and he’s using some of his the big gains to buy a Florida 2nd home. I’m really happy for him as he used my March 2020 bottom call near 2192 to make a small fortune. He’s always been very skeptical of technical analysis but trusted my analysis that I was sending to all family and friends who would listen last March 2020.

    • pugsma said

      I’ll continue to trade a little bit this summer to try and milk a little more gain from this P1-C3 wave. Ans I’ll be happy trade the bounces on the P2-C3 wave down to 3600 into next year.

  9. charles blood said

    Hi Steve,

    With your bottom call, we stayed in markets and added to some positions. With gains made we were able to pay for a complete kitchen make over and will also do the bathroom in the Fall.

    Your analysis gave us the backbone we needed to stay the course.

    Thanks!!

  10. charles blood said

    PS: some folks I know also got out at election time. They played their politics. Never good to invest that way.
    They missed the greatest post election rally ever; that you forecasted.

    CB

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