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June 8th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 8, 2021

1:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4226 to 4234, hit 4237, then dropped to 4208 and rallied to 4230…

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 15-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 15-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

25 Responses to “June 8th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. KAIYU DENG said

    The green count fits perfectly with seasonaility – weakness mid-late June, rally into July/August then correction

  2. pugsma said

    IWM up another 1% and hit 233.48 vs a March all-time high at 234.53.

    My IWM minimum triangle target at 241.93 is VERY conservative for the top of P1.

  3. pugsma said

    NYSE A-D Line cumulative continues to power to higher and higher all-time highs with the SP500 continuing to close slightly below the May 7th closing high of 4231.

    Coiled spring…

  4. Jeffrey Robinson said

    Two double gaps open now at 420 and 411 on SPY (gap over gap). 100% fill rate so the short bet is easy money, regardless of drawdown

    • pugsma said

      Hi Jeffery:

      I allow comments on technical analysis or historical data that is supported by evidence. I’d like to see your evidence of this from a past data study. You also posted this same thing on May 24th without any evidence (see below). Thanks.

      Jeffrey Robinson said

      May 24, 2021 at 5:11 pm e
      Gap over gap (double gap) at 411-412 on SPY will be filled, so long side is risky and will be short-lived. Every close has been sold lately. June is one of the worst months of the year to own stocks. Bulls shouldn’t be doing any kind of victory dance yet. It’s all short premium on the way up and will be fun on the way down.

      • pugsma said

        I honestly don’t know much about “gap based TA”. Over the past decade I do sometimes show open gaps on my charts. However I don’t claim to have any theory nor evidence that they will be filled in the short-term or ever. I do know there are open gaps going all the back to the year 2009 low at 667.

      • pugsma said

        I welcome everyone to share the TA knowledge here . But I don’t accept statements (bullish or bearish) with some known TA theory or historical evidence.

  5. Jim Guthery said

    What is the behavior for minor 3 waves – is this going sideways for too long? I thought 3 waves were more impulsive?

  6. pugsma said

    Tom Lee @Fundstrat is looking for SP500 to hit 20,000 by year 2038 when Millennials (years 1981 to 1996) reach peak consumption age of 50. Tom is definitely in my Cycle 3 (C3) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) camp. Great minds…

    https://twitter.com/greatquarter/status/1402593875022299136?s=21

  7. pugsma said

    IF the June SP500 peak exceeds the May 4238 Peak, then the SP500 will have made a new high in each of the first six months of the year. That’s only happened 4 times in history. Returns the balance of the year a very muted average of +0.9%.

    The most interesting year of the four listed is 1983, as the 2020 rally and key indicator bullish extremes are closely tied to to years 1982 and 2009 (see Chris Ciovacco’s historical TA work). Year 1983 peaked on June 21st and suffered a -10% drop into August time frame then traded flat to slightly up the balance of the year.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1402075457034633219?s=21

    • pugsma said

      That year 1983 June peak was not exceeded until the fall of 1984 (1.5 years later). The total correction lasted into the spring of 1984 and was a -15% from the June 1983 peak.

      A -15% from from 4238 area is at 3602 and would correspond to my P2 wave and would be a 31% retrace of the P1 wave from 2192 to 4238.

    • pugsma said

      This is all just some interesting historical reference data from 1983.

      The year 2010 historical correction never played out from April/May. So no reason to believe 2021 will follow 1983 correction.

      But both years 2009-2010 and 1982-1983 similarity in terms of bullish extreme indicators to year 2020-2021 are clear warning signs that a decent sized correction should be on the radar.

  8. Jim Guthery said

    I am getting confused, I thought we march Higher into the 4380 range through August?

    • pugsma said

      Yes that’s my wave based TA forecast to 4383 to end major [5]-P1-C3. However any move above 4238 satisfies the major [5]-P1 wave requirement.

      Also I’m just indicating about how similar years 1982-1983 is to years 2020-2021 technically. Chris Ciovacco has been showing this for months in his excellent work.

      • pugsma said

        Chris Ciovacco calls it the Nordique Phase where the markets give back all the gains from the March low at 3723 to June/July high 4238+. I call it wave P2.

        Chris also thinks the SP500 could still eek out more gains to 4300 to 4400 first.

        • pugsma said

          The “surprise” would be IF the markets just keep climbing higher (4500+) into year end 2021 with no give back at all. It would make completely new technical indictor extreme history, with the SP50”shrugging off the extremes.

          What’s could be “different this time”. The Federal Reserve refusing to reduce the $120B/month bond buying (QE) even in the face of a rapidly growing economy and rising inflation. This would keep a bid under the markets indefinitely and keep the P1-C3 wave going higher by historic standards.

          The price to pay will be a more severe P2 wave drop to even a bear market (> -20% drop).

      • Jim Guthery said

        Thanks. Your forecasts have proven to be the best of anyone. Amazing how you navigate the complexity of the market.

      • pdawg44 said

        amazed at the imp. of the 4238 level, nice call

  9. pugsma said

    The Fed is getting far behind the curve being stubborn to reduce QE.

    https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1402701026088603656?s=21

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