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June 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 3, 2021

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4208 to 4191, quickly dropped to 4168, then rallied back to 4205 and closed at 4193.

As long as the SP-500 price holds above the recent 4061, then there are two bullish count wave options (primary (white/green) and alternate (blue)) shown on the charts below for a continued rally into the summer months that reaches at least the 4400 area to complete P1-C3. A break below 4061 would mean that major [4] wave has some more work to do lower in the 3950 area (that would be the alternate (red) count not shown on the charts below).

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

45 Responses to “June 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Wayne Curtis said

    Any edge with your analysis Steve?

    • pugsma said

      Nothing new to report.

      The NYSE A-D line Cumulative just made an all-time high well above the May 7th high when the SP500 closed at 4231. The SP500 should follow through the to a new closing high above 4231. It would be rare IF it did not.

  2. pugsma said

    OT: So CNBC has a 23 year old “trader” on this morning who is the leader of the “AMC Apes” whatever that is. I feel dumber for having listened to this “pumper”. Same as it ever was..

    • pugsma said

      CNBC is losing a lot of credibility lately. They have spend hours per day discussing stocks like AMC and GME that have almost zero importance in the markets. They are just going for ratings at all cost versus providing relevant business information.

      • droc14 said

        Very much a ratings grab. I also think they bring these guys on to allow them a place to talk but have no actual respect for them and are waiting for the “i told you so moment” where they can bring them back on make fun of them.

  3. pugsma said

    OT: Macro Economic news of May jobs growth number of 559,000 vs most expectations above 800,000 (to near 1M) likely keeps the Federal Reserve Bond Buying (QE) tapering on hold for awhile longer. Just like the April Lower than expected jobs number, It’s a bit of Goldie Locks type number showing a vastly improving US economy while keeping the Fed accommodating QE policy in place.

    The primary (white/green) counts likes this with P1-C3 peeking sometime around the Fed summit in late August at Jackson Hole, WY.

  4. pugsma said

    NYSE A-D Line Cumulative again pushing to a new all-time high. Greatly above the level from May 7th when the SP500 closed at 4231.

    NYMO back above +40.

    • pugsma said

      As I’ve been saying since late last week when the A-D line cumulative broke out to new all-time highs, a SP500 close above 4231 is a nearly 100% a certainty.

    • pugsma said

      This is why like to use the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line cumulative key indicators to supplement my E-wave primary count.

  5. stevesumma said

    For those following your crypto mining posts in previous days, Norton has just announced it will allow its subscribers to download an app that allows them to join the fun. I wonder if what it will pay will cover the cost if the electricity and hassle of using available memory on their PC’s?

    • pugsma said

      The crypto mining software is free. It’s about the hardware cost versus the return on those costs.

    • pugsma said

      Another expense (Room AC addition) to consider for all those would be home crypto miners. Of course I don’t have to have the mining hardware in my home office, but I just like to have it near me while I’m charting. The sound of those 4 GPU’s mining just makes me happy! 😀

      Speaking of heat. Even with the upstairs AC unit set to 72F my office was running at 82F. Decided to buy a small potable AC unit to bring it back down to a more reasonable 76F.

      All this crypto mining equipment is drawing about 900 watts (115 V, 7.8 A). Great to keep my office warm during the Chicago winter months, but not so good during the summer months.

      I’m in for about $10K in hardware equipment now. I’ve made $600 in BTC this first month. But didn’t have all 4 GPU’s going until last week. Doing about $25 per day = $9125 per year now. I’m still hoping to turn a profit near year one.

  6. pugsma said

    Ok admit it. Who woke yesterday morning with the SP500 trading down at 4168 and said “PUG is wrong. Cobra was right. The SP500 is going below 4061 before above 4238.”

    Based on May’s polling over 67% here didn’t think the SP500 would break above 4238 before breaking below 4057.

    • droc14 said

      dont jinx yourself 🙂

      • pugsma said

        I don’t believe in a jinx. I only follow pure Technical Analysis (TA). When the key indicators say higher then the bearish alt counts are dropped from the charts and a giddy up call is used. That happened two ago at the 4148 area.

    • Jim Guthery said

      Never doubt the master! I have to admit I was just looking at the growth stock action and wondering which level we were going to bounce off… Long and strong…

    • Rodney said

      Not me. Green primary all the way.

      • pugsma said

        Good decision. There is a positive coordination between the years of subscription to trading the primary wave count. 🙂

  7. pugsma said

    So What’s different about the April-June 2010 large correction early in Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) versus here in the early stage of Cycle 3 (C3) of Super Cycle V (SC-V)?

  8. pugsma said

    Hit 4231 on the nose.

    The plan may be to close below 4231 to give the bears a glimmer of hope. Then rip their throats out on a Monday gap above 4238 and close even higher.

    • Jim Guthery said

      Poor cobra followers.

      • pugsma said

        To be fair Cobra does not make any market predictions, he just gives market based historical studies. While VIX > +40% in two consecutive days showing a lower low cases was a perfect 20 for 20 ( 100%), Case 21 can fail …

        • Jim Guthery said

          Yeah, that one had me really apprehensive. The market was oscillating pretty heavy those days.

        • Sagar Patel said

          Steve, just so everyone is clear, Cobra’s stat DID fail. Although SPX did not make a new high, SPY did and he uses SPY. On 5/7, SPY hit a high of 422.82. On 6/4, SPY hit new high of 422.92, invalidating his “lower low” call. So PUG wins!

          • Jim Guthery said

            I think they go off the closing price.

          • Sagar Patel said

            Jim,

            As per Cobra’s 6/4 Market Outlook, “ Since it’s the 3rd test of the blue line so a breakout should be more likely, no to mention statistically up 2 weeks in a row, 76% chances higher high ahead the next week. As for whether the coming breakout is for real, we’ll have to wait and see. Generally the very first breakout more likely is false. Because SPY hit all time high today so the statistics about lower low ahead was invalid.”

    • pugsma said

      Maybe not 4232 and still going up…

    • pugsma said

      Would you look at that 4229.99 NOT a new closing high… they did it. Kept the bears short into the weekend!

      • pugsma said

        The $CPC shot up +25% today from 0.67 to 0.84.

        Definitely some big money bought puts into the weekend.

        • pugsma said

          And index only put/call $CPCI shot up +33% from 1.36 to 1.82. Highest $CPCI since early March. Lots of index puts bought today.

  9. pugsma said

    Market seems to be continuing the trend of slight weakness Monday/Tuesday, stable Wednesday, large gains Thursday/Friday.

  10. pugsma said

    IWM leading which is precisely what you want to see in a bull trend.

  11. pugsma said

    One negative is that the DJIA Transport index $Tran looks sick and is not confirming the broader market breakout.

    • pugsma said

      This DJIA transport area is the only negative divergence I’m seeing across indicators. It’s not a key indicator for my work.

  12. pugsma said

    It’s really paid off for me personally since March 2021 to continue to trade in near equal positions SPY, IWM, QQQ and DIA through UPRO, TNA, TQQQ and UDOW. Especially in this late stage P1 bull wave. Everyone here should have noticed that during that past year I spent a great deal more time on IWM and QQQ technical analysis that I even did during years 2009 to 2019. I used to be laser focused on only analyzing and trading the SP500.

    • TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

      I can vouch for the accuracy of Steve’s acknowlegement of a willingness to “guide” us amoung the four enhanced indices. Many of you will recall my inquiry of whether tna or tqqq might be more favored at a particular timeframe, and Steve was most willing to reply—positively or negatively!

    • patrick kavanagh said

      Very helpful, thanks Steve!

    • R said

      Definitely noticed the additions of QQQ and IWM, been very valuable to actually compare against SP500 when those are leading, etc. Very helpful and much appreciated, thank you in advance for the continued work.

      One side question if its okay, you call out UPRO vs. SPY, is there a reason you don’t go SSO? Wondering if I’m missing something because I tend to use SPY vs. SSO. I realize its a 3x vs. 2x but was wondering if I was missing something where UPRO trades better than SSO (i.e. decay over time or tracks better against the SP500, etc.).

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