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May 27th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 27, 2021

7:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4196 to 4202, quickly hit 4213 and then faded most of the day to close at 4201.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.50[1] target is at 4578. Within the major [5] wave, minor 1 wave completed at 4183 and the minor 2 was a deep retrace to 4061. The minor 3 wave up is underway with target at 4391, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor. Within the minor 3 wave, minute (1) completed at 4189 and minute (2) at 4152. The minute (3) wave up is underway with a (3)=1.62(1) target of 4359.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the major [4] low at 4057.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at +19 from +9 yesterday.  NYMO consecutive closes back above the zero line are bullish and help to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.  NYMO closes above +20 are extremely bullish.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -3.6 % at 16.74. 
  3. Chart PatternConfirmed Bullish Double Bottom at 4061 with a target of 4305 on a break above 4183.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative has moved above the previous all-time when the SP500 closed at 4231 on Friday May 7th. This means that the SP-500 will very likely break above the 4231 closing high soon.

House Keeping: As I have done every year since starting this blog and service in October 2009, I take a break from posting new blog updates on Friday’s during the summer months in Chicago. We only get get about 3 months (June, July, August) of warm summer weather here and I love to be outdoors enjoying them. Beginning with Friday May 21st trough Friday September 3rd, there will not be a Friday blog post. Monday May 31st, is the USA Memorial Day Holiday. The US Markets will be closed. The next blog post will be on Tuesday, June 1st.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 Monthly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “May 27th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Sagar Patel said

    Perfect set up for your wave iii-3 tomorrow… the “maskless rally”…potential for all time daily/weekly/monthly close the day the US goes maskless!

  2. Anunay Jain said

    The only wrench in this count is that the market is still not impulsing. Maybe building energy to explode higher.

  3. pugsma said

    Note that the SP500 daily chart MACD (12,26,9) went bull cross yesterday and could confirm it on the close today.

    The last time this happened from was earth March and the SP500 moved from 3723 to 4228 and gained 515 points (+13.8%) over 2 months. A +13.8% move over two months from the 4057 low is 4618 by mid-to-late July.

  4. pugsma said

    The bulls and the primary (white/green) count have another important indicator going for them.

    Historically when the NYSE A-D Line cumulative breaks out too a new all-time high well ahead of the SP500 making a new all-time high (as it did this week), the SP500 will not put in a major top for 3 to 6 months (ie, August 2021 to October 2021).

  5. pugsma said

    And the VIX well below 20 (16.19 today) means a slow grinding wave up and a slow burn for all those bears short or in cash missing out.

  6. pugsma said

    2 hours to the close and the NYMO is above +25.

    Breadth continues to improve as the rally from the 4057 low has moved higher.

  7. Denali92 said

    Right now, the entire range for the month of May occurred between employment day, Friday, May 7th (4238) and Wednesday, May 12th (4057), I do not remember any month that had it’s monthly range contained in such a short period of time. It is just a historically interesting point – it is not actionable.

    With today’s high above Wednesday’s high, the potential for a post opex top such as occurred in May 2013 has been negated. It means that the Opex Wednesday low at 4061 was the opex turn. May opex almost always used to turn post opex, but that is now the 3rd during the week bottom for the May opex period since 2016. The May opex week bottoms in 2016, 2017 and 2020 all then saw rallies in to the second week of June (post employment).

    The market continues to be resilient and persistent – all positive signs.

    Have an excellent long weekend. Wherever you are located, I hope you have GREAT weathe!

    -D

  8. pugsma said

    NYMO closed above +20 at +23 with SP500 close at 4204, well below May 7th close at 4231 with NYMO only at +19. That’s a bullish divergence!

    NYSE A-D Line Cumulative made another new all-time closing high with the SP500 close a 4204 vs 4231 on May 7th. That’s a bullish divergence!

  9. pugsma said

    Welcome to June!

    Assuming today follows through to close above 4231, then it will be the conclusion of a cautionary tale: “Don’t get stuck on statistics or historical precedent.” Cobra had the 20 for 20 (100%) stat calling for a new low, lower below 4057 when the VIX rises >+40% in two consecutive days since year 2009. Cobra also as been saying since November 2020 with SP500 at 3200, that the SPY Weekly Exponential Moving was too high, historically it would correct and he won’t add longs. Well the SP500 has risen 1000 points (+30.1%)! That’s a BIG missed opportunity cost of being to bearish based on stats and history.

    Meanwhile, since September 2020 I have always remain flexible and BUT have kept the primary (white/green) count moving higher to 4400+. Current price action and current key indicators (NYMO, NYSE A-D Line cumulative, $CPC, etc) matter the most.

  10. pugsma said

    Mid-day NYMO is above +40. Very strong market internals.

    Mid-day NYSE A-D Line cumulative up 0.8% to new all-time highs.

    • pugsma said

      It’s extremely constructive that as the SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM are resting slightly below their respective all-time highs, that market internals continue to break out to new all-time highs.

      • MS53 said

        can you explain a little more why thats beneficial ?

        • pugsma said

          NYMO and NYSE A-D Line Cumulative measure market internals and are leading indicators.

          If they are breaking out ahead of the indices, then this is a positive divergence.

          If they are breaking down as the indices are making new highs, then this is a negative divergence.

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