May 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 19, 2021
6:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4127 to 4098, dropped to a days low of 4061 and rallied to close at 4116.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 has been playing out as a triangle since the 4238 major [3] high. The initial drop to 4057 was the minor A wave and the rally to 4183 was the minor B wave. Today’s drop to 4061 ended the minor C wave. Minor D should reach the 4137 and minor E should hold above the 4086 pivot to complete the major [4] triangle. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor A low at 4057.
The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. What’s been underway since is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23% Fib target of 3945. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave completed between the 62%/78% Fib of 4169/4198 and 4183. The minor C wave drop to the major [4] 23% Fib target of 3945 is underway. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets 4590. Note: Breaking above the 4183 then 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.
The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib target at 3767. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.
Market Technical Notes:
- NYMO: The NYMO closed down at -29 from -15 yesterday. The NYMO has thus far failed close back above the zero line, opening the door for the NYMO Based “SP500 Crash Signal” where the NYMO closes below -40 (closed at -66 last week) then fails to close above the back above zero line.
- VIX: The VIX closed up +3.9 % at 22.18. Last week the VIX closed up > +40% in 2 consecutive days last week when the SP500 closed down at 4063. Since the year 2009, when this magnitude of VIX surge occurred, 20 of 20 times (100%) the SP500 made a lower closing low (i.e. below 4063) when a week or two (note: this is Cobra Market View Stat.)
- NYSE Options Put/Call Ratio $CPC: In the category of somewhat concerning (for a 2nd SP500 drop) is the fact the the $CPC (Put/Call Ratio) is hanging around at an elevated level AFTER the big $CPC spike last week along with the big SP500 drop. Often times if the $CPC remains elevated, it means that the SP500 could suffer a 2nd drop like in June 2020, Sept 2020, Oct 2020 and March 2021 (see the chart below).
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Triangle or Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders Top.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.