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May 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 19, 2021

6:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4127 to 4098, dropped to a days low of 4061 and rallied to close at 4116.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 has been playing out as a triangle since the 4238 major [3] high. The initial drop to 4057 was the minor A wave and the rally to 4183 was the minor B wave. Today’s drop to 4061 ended the minor C wave. Minor D should reach the 4137 and minor E should hold above the 4086 pivot to complete the major [4] triangle. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor A low at 4057.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. What’s been underway since is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23% Fib target of 3945. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave completed between the 62%/78% Fib of 4169/4198 and 4183. The minor C wave drop to the major [4] 23% Fib target of 3945 is underway. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets 4590. Note: Breaking above the 4183 then 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib target at 3767. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down at -29 from -15 yesterday. The NYMO has thus far failed close back above the zero line, opening the door for the NYMO Based “SP500 Crash Signal” where the NYMO closes below -40 (closed at -66 last week) then fails to close above the back above zero line.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +3.9 % at 22.18.  Last week the VIX closed up > +40% in 2 consecutive days last week when the SP500 closed down at 4063. Since the year 2009, when this magnitude of VIX surge occurred, 20 of 20 times (100%) the SP500 made a lower closing low (i.e. below 4063) when a week or two (notethis is Cobra Market View Stat.)
  3. NYSE Options Put/Call Ratio $CPC:  In the category of somewhat concerning (for a 2nd SP500 drop) is the fact the the $CPC (Put/Call Ratio) is hanging around at an elevated level AFTER the big $CPC spike last week along with the big SP500 drop. Often times if the $CPC remains elevated, it means that the SP500 could suffer a 2nd drop like in June 2020, Sept 2020, Oct 2020 and March 2021 (see the chart below).
  4. Chart PatternPotential Bullish Triangle or Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders Top.
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

60 Responses to “May 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Today is a good lesson for me in why not to eliminate the primary (white/green) count until the key threshold (i.e. 4057) is broken.

  2. pugsma said

    OT: Anyone able to buy BTC at $30K on the “flash crash” this morning. COINBASE crashed on me when trying to login to buy the dip. I had not bought any new BTC since the fall of 2018.

    • Tom Kiel said

      I did at 33k. But when i went to sell it over 40k the sale failed frustrating

      • pugsma said

        Well Tom you got your BTC > $40K today with CoinBase up and running.

        But yes, I’m always frustrated when an exchange or trading platform has an outage.

  3. pugsma said

    OT: I still have not “invested” make into the indices. Bought the dip and sold the rip again today. Rense and repeat. I’d really like to see a lower close than 4063 to set a potential +DIV across the NYMO close above -67.

  4. pugsma said

    Something very important to note with the BIG $CPC (Options Put/Call Ratio) spike to 1.07 after the close yesterday, May 19th.

    We did get the 2nd $CPC Spike and the 2nd $SPX drop as expected. However, the $SPX does NOT always make a new low on the 2nd drop (see May and June 2020).

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/SP500-vs-CPC-5-20-21.jpg

    • pugsma said

      Thus, the primary (white/green) count certainly has a good chance here.

      The primary (white/green) count on the IWM and QQQ used time, not sow much price, to correct the excessive move above the 200-day SMA.

    • pugsma said

      You can clearly see on the $SPX vs $CPC chart that when the $CPC spikes above 1.0, the $SPX bottom is in place or very near.

  5. pugsma said

    The maximum measured move up out of the this bull flag or triangle that has developed between 4238 and 4057 is 4238 + (4238-4057) = 4419.

  6. pugsma said

    SOX-X (Semi-Conductor) Index just gapped up and over it’s down trend line that began in early April.

  7. pugsma said

    All those NYSE option put holders ($CPC above 1.00) from yesterday’s close getting squeezed today.

  8. pugsma said

    SP500 falling 13-day EMA at 4147 is the next resistance point to get over.

  9. pugsma said

    NAAIM (Active Managers) Stock Market Exposure down to 44% Long this week.

    This is less stock market exposure than at the Sept/Oct 2020 bottoms. That’s a bullish signal.

    https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

  10. pugsma said

    Giddy Up!

  11. pugsma said

    There are going to be major changes in the wave counts tonight.

    At a minimum the counts will align to point up to 4300+ into the summer.

    • pugsma said

      The Alt (red) count will adjusted to P1-C3 top near 4400 into the summer.

      The primary (white/green) count is in the very early stages of minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 that will head towards 4700+ into year 2021.

  12. pugsma said

    FYI, when I woke up and saw the $CPC chart had spiked to 1.07 at the close yesterday, I “invested” long in SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA before the market opened. I knew that was a great sign of a key bottom. That is why I got that chart out here early today.

    My stops will be a yesterdays lows.

  13. pugsma said

    I’m expecting the heavily beaten down growth stocks in ARKK might really fly higher this summer. They are off some -30 to -40% and could really juice this market higher now.

  14. Christopher Hall said

    Thanks. Per the McClellan view on the market lagging crypto by a few days, is there any way to gauge if we still might see some weakness into early next week ?

    • pugsma said

      McClellan BTC (+5TD) vs SPX is a swag at best. Interesting correlation chart, but only SPX prices pays. Look at the SPX reversal yesterday and breakout today. $CPC data spike was the real tell.

  15. pugsma said

    There are just so many charts turning bullish here, it will take a week to update them all.

    But it’s 75F and sunny here in Chicago today. Time to take the dog out and play fetch and catch. Then maybe a bike ride.

    It’s good to be a bull today and going forward into the summer.

  16. pugsma said

    Similar to the QQQ double bottom (316) that already broke out above 327.33, IF the SP500 can break above 4183 then it’s double bottom (4061) target is 4305.

  17. pugsma said

    I’m grilling out burgers for lunch for all the bulls who want to see 4300+ in June. Who’s hungry?

    • jrw said

      Count me in😀

    • Jim Guthery said

      I am hungry but, I have to respect the 100% probability.

      • pugsma said

        I have some disappointing information for you. Nothing in the stock market analysis is 100%.

        Cobra cherry picks his market stats, like many do. What if he picked >45% VIX instead of 40%? What if he used VIX data going back further than 2010?

        • Jim Guthery said

          Valid. Do you think we get out that easy with a 4% pullback? The market has been extremely whippy. The avg pullback has been anywhere from 6 to 10% since the pandemic low.

    • Rodney said

      I’d love a big bull burger. All my rancher friends say thanks for eating beef!

  18. pugsma said

    I just realized that $DJIA and DIA did make a lower low yesterday. So Cobra was “sorta” right. 😉

  19. pugsma said

    On the SP500 5-min chart it looks like a triangle has formed between 4168 and 4148. Target is 4188.

  20. pugsma said

    Coming on CNBC Closing Bell, Tom McClellan says “stock market is about to go higher with its head on fire!”

    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1395467368134955008?s=21

    • Jim Guthery said

      He is calling for a lower low into mid-June and then a hair-on-fire rally for 45 days into a top.

      • pugsma said

        He’s was showing the 4-year presidential seasonal chart, which has been dead wrong as it showed a strong move up into May and June low. We got a big drop in May. Now we should see a strong June as it inverts.

        Price is paramount over historical stats, seasonal charts etc. PUG SMA charts price!!!

        • pugsma said

          It’s disappointing when a TA guy like Tom only shows a Seasonal chart to make his point.

        • Jim Guthery said

          So time is more important than the % of the drop. 4% is shallow compared with all the 6 previous pullbacks since the March lows.

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