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May 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 18, 2021

5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4163, drifted sideway and dropped late in the day to close near the low at 4127.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4057 as an expanded flat wave to where (c)=2.0(a) at 4058. From the minor 4 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4318 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4368. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor 4 low at 4057

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave completed between the 62%/78% Fib of 4169/4198 and 4183. The minor C wave drop to the major [4] 23% Fib target of 3945 is underway. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib target at 3767. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -15 from -7 yesterday. The NYMO has thus far failed close back above the zero line, opening the door for the NYMO Based “SP500 Crash Signal” where the NYMO closes below -40 (closed at -66 last week) then fails to close above the back above zero line.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +8.2 % at 21.34.  Last week the VIX closed up > +40% in 2 consecutive days last week when the SP500 closed down at 4063. Since the year 2009, when this magnitude of VIX surge occurred, 20 of 20 times (100%) the SP500 made a lower closing low (i.e. below 4063) when a week or two. This is Cobra Market View Stat.
  3. NYSE Options Put/Call Ratio $CPC:  In the category of somewhat concerning (for a 2nd SP500 drop) is the fact the the $CPC (Put/Call Ratio) is hanging around at an elevated level AFTER the big $CPC spike last week along with the big SP500 drop. Often times if the $CPC remains elevated, it means that the SP500 could suffer a 2nd drop like in June 2020, Sept 2020, Oct 2020 and March 2021 (see the chart below).
  4. Chart PatternNone
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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