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May 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 18, 2021

5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4163, drifted sideway and dropped late in the day to close near the low at 4127.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4057 as an expanded flat wave to where (c)=2.0(a) at 4058. From the minor 4 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4318 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4368. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor 4 low at 4057

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave completed between the 62%/78% Fib of 4169/4198 and 4183. The minor C wave drop to the major [4] 23% Fib target of 3945 is underway. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib target at 3767. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -15 from -7 yesterday. The NYMO has thus far failed close back above the zero line, opening the door for the NYMO Based “SP500 Crash Signal” where the NYMO closes below -40 (closed at -66 last week) then fails to close above the back above zero line.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +8.2 % at 21.34.  Last week the VIX closed up > +40% in 2 consecutive days last week when the SP500 closed down at 4063. Since the year 2009, when this magnitude of VIX surge occurred, 20 of 20 times (100%) the SP500 made a lower closing low (i.e. below 4063) when a week or two. This is Cobra Market View Stat.
  3. NYSE Options Put/Call Ratio $CPC:  In the category of somewhat concerning (for a 2nd SP500 drop) is the fact the the $CPC (Put/Call Ratio) is hanging around at an elevated level AFTER the big $CPC spike last week along with the big SP500 drop. Often times if the $CPC remains elevated, it means that the SP500 could suffer a 2nd drop like in June 2020, Sept 2020, Oct 2020 and March 2021 (see the chart below).
  4. Chart PatternNone
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

19 Responses to “May 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Many indicators pointing to a lower low than 4057 is likely due next.

  2. pugsma said

    Re-posting this late afternoon comment here:

    Pugsma said
    May 18, 2021 at 3:22 pm e
    Tom McClellan has been trying to show the correlation between BTC (Bitcoin) prices shifted forward 5 TD (trading days) and the SP500.

    BTC broken down from 59K to 42K last weekend after making an initial drop from 64K to at 47K, then a bounce to 59K the week before.

    Tom’s SP500 vs BTC chart would suggest the SP500 should break below 4057 next Monday, May 24th (5 TD from Friday’s 4183 high).

    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1394389192814186496?s=21

    • orion.colorado said

      Fwiw, my sense is it will pay to aim to be the 2nd mouse over the next week or so.

  3. Wildmarkets said

    Steve, can you try and get the bitcoin BTC chart and not the GBTC which is not a reliable one? Thanks!

    • pugsma said

      There is to no real-time price BTC chart on my TC2000 charting software. There is a daily closing only chart for BTC but I need all intra-day BTC prices to make an accurate E-wave chart.

      The GBTC chart BTC proxy is real-time during he cash market hours.

      • LightBearer86 said

        Hi Steve, I am using StockCharts and it has $BTCUSD, which contains intraday prices, not sure if TC2000 has it.

  4. pugsma said

    BTC peak was roughly $64.9K

    BTC low from Dec 2018 was roughly $3.5K

    50% Fib retrace of the $61.4K move up is at $34.3K. BTC just hit $36.2K this morning.

  5. pugsma said

    Remember that the SP500 price has roughly a 5 TD (trading day) lag to BTC probe lows. So If BTC can bottom today, then the SP500 would bottom next Wed, May 26th. Likely near my major target of 3945.

  6. pugsma said

    SP500 opening low of 3072 was a precise 88% retrace of the move up from 4057 to 4183. Thus it was the last stand area for the primary (white/green) count.

  7. pugsma said

    SP500 at 4065 is right at the lower white line of the year+ long rising wedge on the daily chart.

  8. pugsma said

    Cobra needs a new low below 4057 to be proven right.

  9. pugsma said

    NYMO intra-day at around -55 vs the -66 low when SP500 closed at 4063.

    Any SP500 close below 4063 with NYMO close above -66 is a potential positive divergence.

  10. WaterRock said

    With GBTC below 30, a possible clue that we might take the blue path for both GBTC & SPX?

  11. pugsma said

    Looks like a minute (4) wave of the alt(blue) labels that should hold below the 4088 pivot area before the drop below 4057.

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