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May 17th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 17, 2021

3:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4173 o 4170, dropped to a intra-day low of 4143 and rallied to 4165…

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4057 as an expanded flat wave to where (c)=2.0(a) at 4058. From the minor 4 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4318 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4368. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave completed between the 62%/78% Fib of 4169/4198 and 4183. The minor C wave drop to the major [4] 23% Fib target of 3945 is underway. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib target at 3767. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

14 Responses to “May 17th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    A couple positives indicators for more upside tomorrow for the SP50 is that with a down day on the SP500:

    1) NYMO closed up.

    2) NYSE A-D line cumulative closed up.

  2. pugsma said

    In the category of somewhat concerning (for a 2nd SP500 drop) is the fact the the $CPC (Put/Call Ratio) is hanging around at an elevated level AFTER the big $CPC spike last week along with the big SP500 drop. Often times if the $CPC remains elevated, it means that the SP500 could suffer a 2nd drop like in June 2020, Sept 2020, Oct 2020 and March 2021.


    • pugsma said

      Cobra as of last night predicting a slightly higher high than 4183 this week, then a drop below 4057 next week into early June.

  3. Pat Corcoran said

    Hi there
    New here. Great content and charting.
    From a pure ew point of view. The ex. Flat that you have for wave 4 (4219) fits perfect.
    Would that lend more odds to your primary count.
    Or have you seen decent patterns like that fail in the past?
    Thanks p

  4. Pat Corcoran said

    I see.
    Do you know what “max pain “ is for options this month?
    Basically, could spx be stuck in a range until after Friday?

  5. pugsma said

    Tom McClellan has been trying to show the correlation between BTC (Bitcoin) prices shifted forward 5 TD (trading days) and the SP500.

    BTC broken down from 59K to 42K last weekend after making an initial drop from 64K to at 47K, then a bounce to 59K the week before.

    Tom’s SP500 vs BTC chart would suggest the SP500 should break below 4057 next Monday, May 24th (5 TD from Friday’s 4183 high).


    • pugsma said

      Basically Tom’s theory is since BTC topped and had a double drop with a 62% Fib rebound in between, the SP500 should do the same thing with a 5 TD lag. So the rest of this week would be flat between 4139 and 4183 and then a big gap down on Monday May 24th the will drop below 4057 eventually (ie the alt blue count).

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