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May 14th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 14, 2021

10:40 am EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4112 to 4130, and continued to climb to 4160…

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4057 as an expanded flat wave to where (c)=2.0(a) at 4058. From the minor 4 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4318 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4368. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave up is next to the 62%/78% Fib of4169/4198 to be followed by a minor C wave drop to the 23% Fib target of 3945. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

38 Responses to “May 14th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Moving this here because this is a very important stat.

    Keep the Cobra stat in mind today that when the VIX spiked > 40% in two days (like Tues/Wed) that since year 2009 with 100% probability (20 for 20) the SP500 made a lower low (below 4057) before making a higher high (than 4238). Some times in happened the next day or two (clearly not this time) but many times it took a couple weeks to a month to happen.

    The one case that’s most similar to what just transpired this week was May 2010 coming off a recovery peak from the March 2009 low and during the start of the major [4]-P1-C1 pull-back to a 38% Fib (now would be to 3755) into July 2010. Notice after the > 40% VIX spike the SP500 retraced to 62% (now would be 4169) over 3 days (now would be today or Monday) before dropping to a new low over the next 2 months.


  2. pugsma said

    Moving the Poll Here to keep it going over the weekend.

    It’s a great time to check the subscriber sentiment again.

    Please take this poll on which PUG SMA wave count you believe will win out:


  3. pugsma said

    Monday, May 17th is going to be very telling.

    There is big gap from 4162 to 4188. A “gap up and go” on Monday would leave behind island bottom from 4057 to 4162 and propel the SP500 much higher into the summer months per the primary (green).

    • pugsma said

      Right now I have to say it sure looks like a new impulse (minor 5) wave off the 4057 low.

      The NYMO is nearing the zero line and a close above zero today or Monday would be very good for the primary (green) count.

  4. pugsma said

    Time to go out and enjoy the 70 degF Chicago spring weather with my dogs and take a nice bike ride.

    I’ll be back on Monday morning. Enjoy the weekend all!

    • greggcreek said

      Enjoy! Your work and commentary during the week and each day is outstanding!! Thank-you.

  5. pugsma said

    Before I go, I have to show off my newest project: PUG Crypto Mining Rig


    • WaterRock said

      Which coin?

      • pugsma said

        Using NiceHash quick miner. I supply my computing power to their “pool” and get BTC in reward. The pool uses the computing power to mining the most profit coins, like ETH.

    • pugsma said

      Been crypto mining for a little over 1 week, at 185 MHash/sec, for a $25 BTC/day reward ($9125 BTC/year). I’m using a gaming PC with GeForce RTX 3090 GPU and a open air mining rig with a GeForce RTX 3060 + 3070. I plan to continue to add up to 4 more GPU’s to the mining rig. Hoping to get to near 400 MHash/sec and a $50 BTC/day reward ($18,250 BTC/year).

      Mining Rig HW cost should be paid off in 6 to 8 months and the rest is pure profit going forward.


      • pugsma said

        Of course these BTC rewards assume BTC stats near $50,000. If BTC goes up I will break even quicker and make more profit mining. If BTC goes down, my time to break even gets longer, but I’ll still turn a profit on my hardware cost at some point.

        No risk and good reward, with a big upside option.

      • Wazzu82 said

        I suppose you won’t really know until you get your first electric bill, but do you expect the cost of the power to be a significant part of the net profits equation?

        • pugsma said

          You can see that my 3 GPU’s are only running a combined 469 watts! That’s insignificant to my BTC profits (< 5% hit). That’s why these new 3000 series Nvidia GPU’s are in such high demand. Very efficient for crypto mining. You can actually pay the monthly rent or in my case the home property taxes with these crypto mining rigs.

          • kazoom1618 said

            And its a supplementary heat source for those cold Chicago winters 🙂

          • pugsma said

            Yes! My new office office is in the coldest bedroom of my 4 BR house. I was using a small electric space heater last winter to stay warm. No need for that now!

        • pugsma said

          The ASIC mining rigs draw 3000 watts each to get similar Hash rates of 100 MHash/sec. Thus you can’t run those out of a home without a major home power upgrade.

      • R said

        Awesome! My buddies and I just setup one with NiceHash as well with the same logic as you. Will be looking to add GPUs though tough to find these days.

    • fintechworklab said

      fwiw, evga’s are the best. Their RMA process never let me down.

  6. Denali92 said

    Recent history wins again….

    Early week sell offs, mid week bottoms and strong finishes or no early sell off and a strong finish has been the norm for this market since November.
    -Very impressive!

    The last week with real end of multi day end of week weakness was March opex week with the Wednesday top and then the post Fed weakness. Friday, April 30th was also a weak day, but it was a single day of weakness and the market was back up on the Monday.

    *22-March week: Thursday bottom and a super strong finish to the week
    *29-March week: No weakness all week
    *5-April week: No weakness all week
    *12-April week: Minor Wednesday weakness and strong finish
    *19-April week: Monday, Tuesday weakness and strong finish
    *3-May week: It looked like this 3-May week might have changed the narrative, till there was that strong afternoon rally on the Thursday and then higher again on Employment Friday.

    and this week… weakness in to Wednesday and then a strong finish….

    The market remains persistent and resilient.

    May opex has a powerful history for both tops and bottoms, so the next 12 days (through Wednesday, May 26th, which is the end of the opex period) should be very telling. I will post on it early next week.

    ENJOY your weekend!


  7. pugsma said

    Risky Biz says hello…


    • kazoom1618 said

      Hey Steve – have you got him a soft frisbee yet? Our sheltie learned to catch it and do a full barrel-roll landing every time.

      • pugsma said

        I do have a soft frisbee. Risky seems to prefer a yarn ball toy or the small tennis ball.

        That’s cool that your Sheltie can do that catch and roll trick. Risky is 1 year now and I’m trying to teach him a few agility tricks like jumping over a set bar height. He seems really fast for a 12 inch, 15 pound pure bred toy Aussie. So I’m hanging a lot of fun with him.

        • kazoom1618 said

          We took her to puppy/agility school. It was great fun both for us and the dogs. Our sheltie saw another dog do the catch and roll, and immediately copied it! No training involved.

        • Robert Swaim said

          Love it!

  8. pugsma said

    Interesting SP500 year one performance chart for a “Change In Party Power” in the White House.

    Low in March: Check

    Top in May: Check

    Dip into July?

    Further Dip into October?


  9. pugsma said

    With the SP500 now beyond the 62% Fib of 4169, a new high above 4238 before a new ow below 4057 just got much more probable (ie primary green count).

    • Jim Guthery said

      Are we still looking at a higher probability for a Higher high with today’s action so far? Were you expecting more of an impulse higher, gap and go?

  10. pugsma said

    Final Poll Resumts at the Close:

    Primary (green) 25 votes (37%)
    Alternate (blue) 40 votes (59%)
    Alternate (red) 3 votes (4%)

    Contrarian sentiment indicator says higher in primary (green)…


  11. pugsma said

    I just updated the GBTC daily and weekly charts in the 2021 CCA. Things are getting very interesting with Bitcoin…

  12. pugsma said

    So for today the pull-back from 4183 to 4147 is a 38% Fib of the move up from 4088 to 4183.

    So possible (1)-(2), i-ii start to the primary (white/green) minor 5 wave up to 4318.

  13. pugsma said

    Ms Market keeping everyone in guessing, sitting right at the 50% Fib (4148) for the drop from 4238 to 4057.

    The next move is likely +/- 200 points (+/- 5%).

    Primary (white/green) up to 4368.

    Alternate (blue) down to 3945.

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