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May 13th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 13, 2021

12:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4063 to 4075, then rallied to 4128…

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

58 Responses to “May 13th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Here’s the SP-500 chart update after today’s very expected bounce.

  2. pugsma said

    I updated the GBTC (BTC Proxy) chart in the 2021 CCA.

  3. pugsma said

    AAII Weekly Sentiment down to 36% Bullish vs 27% Bearish:

    The alt(blue) count for major [4] down to at least 3945 would likely let this sentiment reset to < 25% Bullish > 40% Bearish.

    https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

  4. pugsma said

    The 4328 to 4057 drop is barely a blip on the year 2010 comparison chart when there was a big major [4] correction in the summer of 2010.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1392540080082927624?s=21

  5. pugsma said

    My counts as playing out perfectly here with the drop to 4087 and now up to at least 4157. Then it gets interesting…

    • pugsma said

      Falling 13-day EMA at 4154.

    • jrw said

      Given your very high success rate in calling the Primary, I still believe it will happen, The primary is the primary 👍

      • pugsma said

        You do realize that the primary means a sooner and much lower end to P1. At 4300. Then a big drop for P2. Bulls should really want alt (blue) to play out for P1 to near 4000.

        • jrw said

          Understood, although I seem to recall that in the past, you have sometimes found a way to “stretch” the primary. Any chance that might happen here?

          • pugsma said

            Primary count is limited to 4764 for P1 top, because major [3] < [1], thus it’s required that [5] < [3]. It’s shown clearly on the daily chart labels with maximum shown too.

        • William Waggoner said

          Definitely rooting for Alt Blue count. Risk reward will be more favorable and it likely will satisfy Cobra’s annual >/= 6.5% pullback. The TA and market observations you are delivering are A+/excellent!

    • pugsma said

      How did the primary wave know that “CDC no mask news” would come out at the 50% Fib ffie minute (2) of minor 5 at 4093? Then rally in a wave (3) of minor 5 up to new all time highs?

    • Daniel Dufner said

      I’m a little surprised that nobody pointed out yet that all three components of the trifecta closed back inside the BBs today (Thursday), checking off step 2 for all of them. Getting all 3 components in my experience makes a night and day difference in terms of the staying power of the rally that comes out of the setup. With $VIX being the only one needing at least 3 days to complete, $VIX closing lower tomorrow would complete the firing off of all 3 signals.

  6. jrw said

    Yes, I see that on the chart, thanks. 4764 sounds great to me, assuming that there is enough strength to get there.

  7. pugsma said

    Nobody is buying poor ARKK for this final minor 5 wave up to 4318…

    Traders shunning no earning, growth stocks.

  8. pugsma said

    Primary wave count knows the “news” ahead of time.

    Primary and both alts where aligned for a move from 4063 to 4126/4169 at the close yesterday. Everyone bought the perfect alignment for at least a ST trade right?

  9. pugsma said

    Note the ZBT indicator came very close to breaking below the key 0.40 threshold yesterday.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYADV%3A%24NYTOT&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p16500670031

    • pugsma said

      We are going to have find the “exact “ ZBT value at the close yesterday to be sure it set up a trigger.

      • Daniel Dufner said

        I specified the date range in Stockcharts to get the exact closing value. It closed right at 0.40 on the nose. So no cigar?

  10. pugsma said

    Closed below the Head and Shoulders neckline of 4118 and that is supportive of alt(blue) more down to go below 4057 to H&S target of 3998.

  11. pugsma said

    Today was a nice one day, long position trade. As I’ve been saying for nearly a month now that’s all I’m doing when the counts align and the TA set up is favorable to long position day trade.

    The counts are now headed it opposite directions again (primary to 4318 and alt(blue) to 3945, so
    I’m on the side lines again.

    • Andrew Kirk said

      Outstanding intraday technical setups. The 4127 and 4093 points were extremely helpful. Thanks so much for outlining the options even if they differ from the primary. Keeps a sound mind-better appreciation for the risk reward potential.

    • orion.colorado said

      Great day!

  12. pugsma said

    Keep the Cobra stat in mind today that when the VIX spiked > 40% in two days (like Tues/Wed) that since year 2009 with 100% probability (20 for 20) the SP500 made a lower low (below 4057) before making a higher high (than 4238). Some times in happened the next day or two (clearly not this time) but many times it took a couple weeks to a month to happen.

    The one case that’s most similar to what just transpired this week was May 2010 coming off a recovery peak from the March 2009 low and during the start of the major [4]-P1-C1 pull-back to a 38% Fib (now would be to 3755) into July 2010. Notice after the > 40% VIX spike the SP500 retraced to 62% (now would be 4169) over 3 days (now would be today or Monday) before dropping to a new low over the next 2 months.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/img_0036.jpg

    • pugsma said

      I count 6 of the 20 cases had this 2 to 5 day recovery to a 50% to 62% Fib (now would be 4148 to 4169) before taking a week to month to drop to a new lower low (than 4057).

      So don’t get too excited about this bounce as history says with 100% probability it’s a minor B wave of the alt (blue) major [4] wave and the minor C will drop below 4057 to 3945 or lower.

      It will take a new high above 4238 before below 4057 to break the perfect 20 for 20 (100%) streak of history. Can the PUG Primary (white/green) count make new history?

      • pugsma said

        It’s always exciting to see if we can break a Cobra stat and make new history…

        I’d say with the Trillions of Federal Reserve monetary stimulus and Government fiscal stimulus that “this time could be different” as P1-C3 powers ahead to 4318 to 4764 (Max).

  13. pugsma said

    It’s a great time to check the subscriber sentiment again.

    Please take this poll on which PUG SMA wave count you believe will win out:

    https://linkto.run/p/J7IZH2CU

  14. MS53 said

    Fresh post on IWM and QQQ if anyone missed it.

  15. pugsma said

    IF you were stuck long and believe in the Alt(blue) or Alt(red) counts and the Cobra 100% Probability of a lower low than 4057, then today is likely the last exit point.

    • RAJA ROY said

      Very helpful, Steve. Thanks for laying out the two perspectives very clearly. I was stuck long, so I will take this bail out. Will wait on sidelines for more clarity before jumping back in.

    • sk001 said

      thanks again steve for all the insights and keeping us on the right track.

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