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May 12th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 12, 2021

5:20 am EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4152 to 4130, dropped all day to a low at 4057 and then close at 4063.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down at -66. The NYMO closed well below its lower BB for two consecutive days, setting up a NYMO based SP500 Buy signal trigger.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +26.3 % at 27.59. The VIX closed well above its upper BB for two consecutive days and triggered a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. SP500 BB: The SP-500 closed below its lower BB, setting up a SP500 Buy signal trigger. (Trifecta SP500 Buy)
  4. Chart PatternPotential Head & Shoulders Top. Head at 4238, neckline at 4118, target of 3998.
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4057 or nearing a completion as an expanded flat wave to where (c)=2.0(a) at 4058. From the minor 4 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4318 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4368. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave up is next to the 38%50%/62% Fib of 4125/4148/4169 to be followed by a minor C wave drop to the 23% Fib target of 3945. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

18 Responses to “May 12th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Here’s the predicted bounce to at least the 38% Fib at 4125.

    FYI Cobra showed a chart last night that when the VIX goes up +40% in two days (as it just did), then there is a 100% probably of a lower low (than 4057) coming. It’s a prefect prediction since year 2007.

    • pugsma said

      Basically Cobra’s historical data says the alternate (blue) count should play out after this bounce ends.

      Denali seems to agree too.

    • pugsma said

      SP500 likely trying to back test the Head and Shoulders top neckline near 4118 to 4129.

    • pugsma said

      I’m wondering if Cobra made a mistake on his > +40% VIX in two days calculation. I had +11.1% Tues and +26.3% Wed for +37.4% total in 2 days. Maybe his 100% probability lower low than 4057 stat is invalid.

      • ganndalf said

        To calculate the 2 day change the individual days changes are multiplied, not added hence 1.11 x 1.263=1.40193; 40.193 2 day percentage increase in VIX.

  2. pugsma said

    So now it’s PUG SMA primary (white/green) count (call that the low is in at 4057) versus Cobra and Denali’ stock market history. Who will win?

    • henry maddux said

      When was the last time the primary lost?

      • pugsma said

        The primary (white/green) count on the SP500 has been right the whole way up from 2192 to 4238. Let’s see if to can hold 3984 (invalidation point) and keep climbing up to 4331 target.

  3. pugsma said

    IF we close right here near 4118 then ALL three of the SP500 Buy triggers would be confirmed.

    PUG SMA primary count is winning right now 🙂

  4. Anunay Jain said

    Rarely a bottom is formed on a day when market closes at the lows. Next shoe will fall in all likelihood but it has room to run to 4189 first. We may be done with A wave at the best in my view. The primary has lot of room before it gets invalidated though.

  5. pugsma said

    Breaking above the H&S Neckline of 4118 now at 4122. Trying to crush the bears back and make the bulls in cash chase…

    • orion.colorado said

      Fwiw, a push to 62% rt level of SPX 416X would validate the trifecta and let a determined cobra have its due.

      • pugsma said

        I don’t consider breaking above the 4160 level a trifecta SP500 Buy validation. The trifecta SP500 Buy confirmation is typical a intermediate term bottom (ie new highs above 4238 before a new low below 4057).

        • orion.colorado said

          Thx. I was looking at 416X area as more from a winning pugwave perspective.; ie, wading into all the noise yesterday (per “primary count is the primary count…” maxim) and establishing a long bias, then look to review/exit/sell OTM calls along the blue rt levels would be a valid ST win at min and allow for a nod to the caution flag raised by cobra’s data.

          Either way yesterday’s pugwave updates were a part of the groundwork for the new highs my ST acct is seeing today. Thx for all the work/posts over the past few days/week

  6. pugsma said

    Remember a minor B of the alt(blue) count major [4] is three legs up.

    So 4057 to 4128 is minute (a) of minor B.

    50% Fib for minute (b) to 4093.

    (c)=(a) at 4164.

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