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May 11th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 11, 2021

11:10 am EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4188 to 4151, hit a low thus far of 4111…

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is nearing a completion as an expanded flat wave to the typical 38% Fib target to 4080. Wave (c)=1.62(a) at 4092. From the minor 5 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4341 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368 Note: Break below 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) count as labeled.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 should top near 4244, where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

18 Responses to “May 11th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Note: It’s really better for the bulls and the primary (white/green) wave count to close on the lows near the 4086 pivot. This would likely set-up the trifecta SP500 buy trigger or the SP500 below it’s BB, the NYMO below it’s BB, and the VIX above it’s BB.

  2. pugsma said

    FYI. So far today I’ve made 3 trades:

    1) bought the open in SPY, QQQ and IWM
    2) sold the initial bounce to SP500 4162
    3) bought (SPY, QQQ, IWM) on the dip to SP500 4111.

    I wouldn’t mind buying more at 4080 on the SP500.

  3. Bill Shepler said

    FWIW. I had a study trigger at yesterday’s close that has seen SPX close up >= 1% within 4 trading days in 21 or 22 prior instances (95% hit rate). That would mean a close >= 4230 by end of this week based on yesterday’s closing level.

  4. pugsma said

    I will say this about the primary (white/green) wave counts across the SP500, IWM and QQQ. It’s a lower probability than the combination of the alt(blue) and alt(red). The SP500 daily MACD and RSI indicator reset requires a much bigger correction that the drop to 4111 or even 4080.

    • pugsma said

      Thus I’m not “investing” into the primary counts. I continue to only trade very short-term small amounts of my cash.

    • pugsma said

      Any remember the most danger to further downside in the SP500 is when the NYMO falls below zero after and attempt to reclaim zero as just happened this week.

      • pugsma said

        The year 2010 major [4]-P1 wave corrected to a 38% Fib and lasted from late April to early July.

        • pugsma said

          It also began with back to back -1% down days in the SP500 like this one, then tried to bounce for a few days before the real selling began.

          • pugsma said

            In year 2010, Breaking below the 50-day (4045 now) was the death nail and then dropped below 200-day (3688 now).

          • pugsma said

            The year 2010 initial two day SP500 drop slightly undercut the previous low (4111 vs 4118 now), bounced to a 62% Fib (4189 now) and Then BIG crash below 50-day (4045 now).

            Year 2010 start of major [4] wave down was so similar to what the SP500 is doing the past few days…

          • pugsma said

            If year 2010 scenario for major [4] continue to unfold, this bounce to 4189 (max) is the last exit.

  5. Jeffrey Robinson said

    The flash crash happened on May 6th. Things have shifted to the right slightly, meaning any day now could be the equivalent of we continue to trade 2010 patterns.

  6. pugsma said

    For the alt (blue) count most shallow major [4] wave at the 23% Fib of major [3] at 3945.

    Minor A: 4238 to 4111 = 127 points.

    Minor B: 38% Fib of Minor A at 4159 (hit this afternoon) or 50% at 4275.

    Minor C: C=1.62*A = 3953 to 3969.

    • orion.colorado said

      In the off chance things turn more blue, cobra’s intrayear reset 6.5% drop for the SPX is around 3962 off its recent high of 4238.

      Overall, though the best observation is: “the primary count is the primary count is the primary count is the primary count is the primary count…..”

      • pugsma said

        The primary count has only a narrow path higher to 4341 to 4372 into mid-summer, then a much deeper fall to P2 at 3524, a 38% Fib of P1.

        An alt (blue) major [4] to 3945 allows for a major [5]-P1 wave to near 5000 into spring 2022.

        • Russell Bailey said

          Bingo…. The blue count would be great, short-term and into 2022. It get’s my vote (not that anyone cares) 🙂

        • pugsma said

          But here is the thing. The primary count likely agrees more closely with what might transpire with the monetary policy change of the Federal Reserve announcing a QE (bond buying) tapering in the fall. And a fiscal policy change of new capital gains taxes for 2022. Those could bring about a big P2 wave lower into year end.

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