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May 11th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 11, 2021

5:15 am EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4188 to 4151, hit a low at 4111 and then rallied to close at 4152.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near at -35. The NYMO closed well below its lower BB, setting up an NYMO based SP500 Buy trigger.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +11.1 % at 21.84. The VIX closed well above its upper BB and triggered a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Head & Shoulders Top. Head at 4238, neckline at 4118, target of 3998.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4111 or nearing a completion as an expanded flat wave to the typical 38% Fib target to 4080, where wave (c)=1.62(a) at 4092. From the minor 5 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4341 to 4372 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368 Note: The primary (white/green) wave count minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4111 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave up to the 38%50%/62% Fib of 4159/4175/4190 is next followed by a minor C wave drop to the C=1.62 target of 3969 (basis the 50% Fib for minor B). From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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