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May 11th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 11, 2021

5:15 am EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4188 to 4151, hit a low at 4111 and then rallied to close at 4152.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near at -35. The NYMO closed well below its lower BB, setting up an NYMO based SP500 Buy trigger.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +11.1 % at 21.84. The VIX closed well above its upper BB and triggered a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Head & Shoulders Top. Head at 4238, neckline at 4118, target of 3998.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back is complete at 4111 or nearing a completion as an expanded flat wave to the typical 38% Fib target to 4080, where wave (c)=1.62(a) at 4092. From the minor 5 low, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4341 to 4372 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368 Note: The primary (white/green) wave count minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4111 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave up to the 38%50%/62% Fib of 4159/4175/4190 is next followed by a minor C wave drop to the C=1.62 target of 3969 (basis the 50% Fib for minor B). From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets of 4388 to 4567. Note: Breaking above the 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

34 Responses to “May 11th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    To simply things to a single line of importance on the daily chart: the SP500 continues to the hold above the lower white line of the rising wedge off the Cycle 2 (C2) low at 2192 from March 2020. That lower white line comes in at about 4020 at the close today May 11th.

  2. pugsma said

    I just Updated the XLE charts in the 2021 CCA.

  3. pugsma said

    Note: We have a shot at the trifecta SPY Buy trigger at the close today if the SP500 can close below the 4118 area.

    • pugsma said

      Of course a close below the 4118 H&S neckline, triggers a measured move to 3998, so it will be interesting to see how the markets react near the close today.

  4. pugsma said

    Note: The $CPC (CBOE Options Put/Call Ratio) closed at 0.99 last night. That’s higher than during the late January and early March $SPX corrections. It’s almost as high (1.10) as the Sept/Oct bigger $SPX corrections.

    This high $CPC is typically a near-term (day or two) bottoming indicator.

    • pugsma said

      I’d really like to see a close on the lows today and then a flush down to the H&S target of 3998 on Thursday. That could set a solid bottoming area, likely for major [4]-P1.

      • pugsma said

        We need to see a big fear (VIX) spike here too…

        • pugsma said

          Yesterday the VIX opened and closed above its BB. That’s a sign of more short-term selling ahead.

          Today the VIX again opened above its BB. IF the VIX closes above its BB again, that’s a sign of more short-term selling ahead

      • Jim Guthery said

        Awesome, Steve. Thanks so much for keeping us informed. Greatly appreciated!

  5. Jeffrey Robinson said

    Interest rate issues will be a big tech killer. The entire bull market for 10 years was built on buybacks, which become unattractive in a high(er) interest rate environment. Flash crash day?

    • pugsma said

      I’m sorry but your fear mongering tactics on a “flash crash” are going to stop. Last warning.

      Normalized interest rates are part of a healthy economy. Stocks will adjust.

  6. pugsma said

    Updated the ARKK Chart in the 2021 CCA.

  7. Robert Swaim said

    With the low right between the 4080 and 4092 targets for primary, how likely do you think we are to drop to 3998 or 3945?

  8. pugsma said

    Again liked I said earlier, we want to see a close on the lows and them a gap down below 50-day SMA of 4051 tomorrow with a drop to between 3998 and 3945.. That will set up a back-to-back trifecta SP500 Buy trigger with NYMO below -40 both days. That’s a powerful signal for a rebound.

  9. Jim Guthery said

    Is the trifecta off the table now?

    • pugsma said

      No it looks like the trifecta will be trigger at the close today IF we close right here.

      But in a strong down downtrend, you can get two consecutive days (even) of the trifecta.

      Buying on a double or triple, trifecta SP500 Buy signal is what I consider the best possible setup.

  10. pugsma said

    Remember the Alt (blue) targets for major [4] are:

    SP500: 3945
    IWM: 207
    QQQ: 300

  11. kilroy said

    Steve, Once the buying opportunity arises, which index would outperform in your opinion. Would nasdaq lag again? Thanks

  12. pugsma said

    There is another scenario for major [4] wave where this low today is only minor A of major [4]. Then we could get a minor B bounce to the 50% Fib of minor A out of the SP500 Buy trifecta on the close tonight. Then another big drop in late May/Early June for minor C.

    I kind of think that timing would be better for a major [4] low at 3945 or lower to 3755.

    • pugsma said

      It’s easy to rush a wave, especially a major degree wave. This alt (blue) major [4] wave could use more time to play out.

      • Denali92 said

        If this is the correction of this persistent market rally, then the 20 week MA (3935) is a likely initial or final target for the SPX.

        With respect to time, since 2009 the median correction of persistent rallies has been 24 days… the average one took 32 days… the shortest was the August 2017 correction that lasted just 13 days… Last September’s correction was 22 days… The two previous ones lasted 33 days….

        I have held off doing a more extended post on the persistent market rally stats, as I was beginning to wonder whether this was Nov 2016 to Aug 2017 all over…. and thus was being patient…. Now it is the time to finish that post, as the stats on the persistent rallies are interesting and instructive.

        Bottom line: I agree with PUG that IF this is a alt (blue) major 4 wave, then it should take a bit more time…

        -D

        -D

  13. Vamsee Karanam said

    4050 (sma) and then 4020(gap fill) might be a good spot for a bounce?
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/RiHWNFFP/

  14. Chrys said

    Real time NYMO is -67.62 (TOS)

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