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May 10th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 10, 2021

5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4231, drift sideways between 4220 and 4236, then fell to close on the low at 4188.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back to 4129 completed between the typical 23%/38% Fib targets of 4135 to 4080. From here, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4390 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368 Note: Break below 4129 level invalidates the primary (white/green) count as labeled.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3945 to 3761. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 4129 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 should top near 4244, where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

13 Responses to “May 10th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. jrw said

    Steve, does a drop below 4129 in the futures market invalidate the primary?

  2. pugsma said

    FYI There is at least one options here for SP500 primary count, where a drop below 4129 is not important. (Ie minor 4 is valid above 3984)

    We could see QQQ and IWM reach key downside targets today that fits with a major [4] bottom.

    I will be reviewing all current wave counts after today’s price moves.

  3. pugsma said

    Some things to watch today.

    1) SP500 daily lower BB is at 4123.
    2) VIX upper BB is at 19.77
    3) NYMO lower BB is at -22.

    There is chance to get a trifecta (SP500 Buy trigger) of all three of these outside there respective BB’s at the close, if we see the drop continue to close on the lows.

    • Robert Swaim said


    • pugsma said

      As always during a cascade water fall decline in the indices, this trifecta (SP500 Buy) condition can last two or even three consecutive days. So even if we get this condition today at the close, it’s now necessarily absolute the bottom. But if you get it two days in a row, it’s an extremely powerful bottom indicator.

  4. pugsma said

    The the break below 4129, the SP500 primary (white/green) count minor 4 target is now the 38% Fib at 4080.

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