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May 6th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 6, 2021

12:15 pm EST: SP500, IWM and QQQ held the critical levels (4129, 215.24, and 324.20) so far today. Now the bulls have a chance to break about to new all-time highs per the primary (white/green) counts if the SP500 can break above 4188, IWM above 224.54 and the QQQ above 333.14. Conversely IF the critical levels break, then the alternate (blue) wave count is underway. Very key time here in the markets here the next few days.

It should be noted the the SP500 and QQQ Daily Charts have a significant -DIV on the RSI and MACD with the new all-time highs set in mid-April. Those daily RSI and MACD momentum indicators are rolling over and accelerating lower. This agrees with the Alt(blue) and Alt (red) wave counts, even if the SP-500 attempts a slightly higher, high than 4219.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-mim chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analys

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

46 Responses to “May 6th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Possible then that either QQQ or IWM or both have topped already and that the Generals have one last hurrah ?

  2. pugsma said

    I just updated the ARKK daily chart in the 2021 CCA.

    ARKK hit 106.37 at today low. It needed to break below 106.25 to confirm the alternate (blue) count much lower.

  3. Debido said

    Taking all that into consideration …playing the odds over time… I’m going to stay with the primary account until we get stopped out..

  4. pugsma said

    COIN (COIN Base) drop to $254 this morning, right at it’s $250 reference price from when it went public.

  5. pugsma said

    There are just so many things already down -30% to -50% off the highs in 2021 to buy even cheaper, IF we can get that flush down from the entire markets in the coming weeks.

    • pugsma said

      Once these beaten down high growth, no earnings stocks begin to the turn back up the buying frenzy is going to be intense and the overall market will rally.

      • pugsma said

        The primary (white/green) count says the SP500 will get keep treading water above 4118 here before this buying frenzy kicks in.

      • greggcreek said


        How does the wave count forecast for ARK hold up with the potential S&P 500 forecast for a top soon? The comment with high growth stocks turning back up, would indicate the SP500 primary would have to be the forecast in order for ARK primary wave count to also be the forecast. Just trying to get a technical view for correlation. Thanks.

  6. hmeda said

    According to Stock Traders Almanac the day before and the day after Mother’s Day weekend is bullish. Also, the TRIX turned up on the 2 & 4 hr.

  7. MS53 said

    and a full moon on the 11th….where’s Fishy when u need him? lol

  8. pugsma said

    The small bearish head and shoulders on the SP500 with head at 4219, neck like at 4118 and target of 4017 aligns with a move to the 50-day SMA at 4025 and closes the weekly gap at 4020 to 4034.

    • pugsma said

      That would be a weak major [4] drop by only 16% retrace vs the typical 23% Fib at 3831.

      But given the SP500 strength and -5% loss to complete major at 4017 would be fine.

  9. droc14 said

    So this condition below appears unlikely with approx. an hour to go that it will work this time; SPX need to close above 4211 today. Maybe a question that we should now consider is in the prior 2 times that this signal/stat failed what happened next? did we have a bearish move next? Not sure if urbancamel has done the research on this on the failures or follows up post these stats. Anyways could be interesting.

    Pugsma said

    May 4, 2021 at 7:19 pm
    Don’t forget about this bullish short-term stat trigger on Thursday, April 29th:

    If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you. On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211. Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability). 4249 is a +2.0 gain from Tuesday’s 4164 close by Thursday, May 6th.

  10. pugsma said

    Interesting ARKK headline…the animals are fleeing the ARK


  11. Jeffery Gough said

    Looking at the $NYAD/Vix/SPx chart the the move the past two days in the Nymo is very minimal. I believe it’s currently at -15..can someone confirm that?

  12. pugsma said

    IF 4188 is exceed the alt (blue) minor B target is (c) =(a) at 4206, with 4188 being (a) and 4147 being (b) of minor B.

    • Wbart21 said

      +1 TY. Any SAEs from #2 shot?

      • pugsma said

        Still under the weather from shot #2 yesterday, but no this severe reaction.

        Nothing worse than having COVID-19 symptoms 3 time since November, two by choice! (Ie taking the vaccine).

  13. pugsma said

    Looks like primary (white/green) won out.

    Break above 4219 targets measure move at 4320, where 4219 + (4219-4118).

    My minor (3) = 2.62(1) target is 4302.

  14. Brad Dantone said

    I’m Going With The Dow Jones Post Election You Are Here Chart. For A Happy May & June – Can You Sing With Me…Baseball, Apple Pie & Tesla ? Chevrolet Was Your Great Grandfather’s Car…

  15. ANT said

    Hi Steve
    Your posts about ARKK from headline Twitter seems like sarcasm if I read it correctly. I’ve been with you many years and usually your contrarian calls against the grain are almost always correct. Are you thinking that ARKK will break upwards with primary count ?

    • pugsma said

      My ARKK TA was updated in the 2021 CCA yesterday.

    • pugsma said

      ARKK broke its March low yesterday.

      When the major indices are in the final leg of P1, primary count, the riskiest, zero earnings growth stock suffer the most. ARKK and many of the zero earnings growth stocks peaked their P1 wave in early 2021.

  16. pugsma said

    Global Liquidity Tapering has begun. Just wait until the US Fed starts to talk tapering later this year. Add in 2021 capital gains tax increases and you got a P2 catalyst cocktail.


    • pugsma said

      Horrifically bad April Jobs Number and March Jobs revised down, should delay the US Fed tapering talk for awhile longer. Potentially good for primary (white/green) count that P1 can climb higher this late spring and early summer.

  17. pugsma said

    Just an FYI breaking above 4219 on the SP500 does not eliminate the alt(blue) and alt(red). In fact if you look at the 15-min and 60-min charts above you can see major [3]=1.23[1] at 4246 for the alt(blue) and major [5]=0.5[1] at 4244 for the alt(red).

    • pugsma said

      In fact a slightly higher high on SP-500 without QQQ and IWM new high confirmation would be a deadly topping combination.

  18. pugsma said

    New high in May at 4222 (so far) above April’s 4219.

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