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May 4th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2021

6:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4193 to 4179, dropped to 4129 (day’s low) and then rallied to close at 4164.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at -5 with the SP500 at 4164 vs a NYMO close of -10 with the SP500 at 4181 on Thursday April 29th. This is a 3-trading day +DIV on the NYMO vs SP500 and typically leads to a rally in the SP500.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed above its upper BB and triggered a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4193 on Monday May 3rd. The SP-500 peaked with closing high of 4211 on Wed, April 28th. Thus the A-D line is stronger than the SP500 (+DIV) and there fore SP500 should make a higher closing high than the Wed, April 28th close at 4211.

SP500 vs NYMO & VIX:

Seasonality: Seasonality agrees with the primary (white/green) wave count of P1 peak in July/August.

SP500 Seasonality

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back to 4129 was between the typical 23%/38% Fib targets of 4135 to 4080 is next. From here, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4390 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368. Note: The minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3931 to 3743. Minor A of major [4] likely complete today at 4129. Next should be a 50%/62% Fib retrace to 4174/4185 before a C=2.62A drop to 3938 to complete major [4]. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4219. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

12 Responses to “May 4th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I will point out that if you look at the 60-min chart, the primary (white/green) count minor 4 wave could have started since the peak at 4191 on April 16th. It’s basically be a flat wave minor 4 from April 16 to May 4th. Wave minute (a) from 4191 to 4118, wave minute (b) from 4118 to 4219, and now (c) from 4219 to 4129. This type of minor 4 flat wave would “alternate” nicely with the minor 2 wave zig-zag in March.

    This doesn’t really change any of the primary (white/green) count outcome that a minor 5 wave up to new all-time highs is next, but is more elegant in it’s wave configuration.

    • Anunay Jain said

      Looks like one more wave down is needed to make it a 3-3-5 structure that may or may not undercut today’s lows depending on if it unfolds as expanded flat or running flat.

  2. Bill Shepler said

    On of my systems fired off a signal at yesterday’s close that is 18 for 18 of seeing a close at least +0.7% higher within the next 5 TD. That would correspond to a close at or above 4222 SPX sometime between now and next Monday 5/10.

  3. Robert Swaim said

    Steve –
    A couple of weeks ago you had some interest in Bahamas or other low tax countries for residents. I was speaking to a planner who has a number of international clients and he steered me to a website serving such folks, and here is a link to an article about why trying to escape US taxes is so hard:


    This may help others here and there are more good links under the FREE INFO tab.


  4. pugsma said

    OT: Received the 2nd shot of Moderna C-19 vaccine today. Hoping not to get as sick this go around.

  5. pugsma said

    Remember IF price does not impulse to a new all-time high above 4219 quickly, then the SP500 could form a Minor 4 triangle between 4129 and 4219.

  6. pugsma said

    2nd Mouse in danger of getting left behind without any cheese! Poor 2nd Mouse…

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