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May 4th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2021

6:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4193 to 4179, dropped to 4129 (day’s low) and then rallied to close at 4164.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at -5 with the SP500 at 4164 vs a NYMO close of -10 with the SP500 at 4181 on Thursday April 29th. This is a 3-trading day +DIV on the NYMO vs SP500 and typically leads to a rally in the SP500.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed above its upper BB and triggered a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4193 on Monday May 3rd. The SP-500 peaked with closing high of 4211 on Wed, April 28th. Thus the A-D line is stronger than the SP500 (+DIV) and there fore SP500 should make a higher closing high than the Wed, April 28th close at 4211.

SP500 vs NYMO & VIX:

Seasonality: Seasonality agrees with the primary (white/green) wave count of P1 peak in July/August.

SP500 Seasonality

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. The minor 4 wave pull-back to 4129 was between the typical 23%/38% Fib targets of 4135 to 4080 is next. From here, there should be one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4390 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368. Note: The minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4219. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3931 to 3743. Minor A of major [4] likely complete today at 4129. Next should be a 50%/62% Fib retrace to 4174/4185 before a C=2.62A drop to 3938 to complete major [4]. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4219. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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