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April 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2021

1:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4211 to 4198, dropped to 4179 and then traded sideways…

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO is trading down at -10 from +13. The NYMO as been drifting lower from a +33 peak 4 at the beginning of April. This is a negative divergence with the higher SP500 price closes. This a potential negative for the SP00 going forward near-term.
  2. VIX: The VIX is trading high by 4.7% at 18.43. The VIX has been trending higher since mid-April, which is a positive divergence with the higher SP500 price closes. This is a potential negative for the SP500 going forward near-term.  
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 peak close of 4211 on April 29th.

Seasonality: Seasonality agrees with the primary (white/green) wave count of P1 peak in July/August.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 likely topped today at 4219. Next is a minor 4 wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 4135 to 4080 is next. From there, one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4341 to 4396 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368. Note: The minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 likely topped at 4219. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3931 to 3743. From there, one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4219. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “April 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I just updated the TSLA 60-min chart in the 2021 CCA.

  2. pugsma said

    I just want to point out that IF you believe in the 4-year Presidential Cycle Chart Seasonality Chart, the primary (white/green) count is still in the middle of the minor 3 of major [5] and thus the higher minor 3 target at 3277, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1, is on tap for early May, not a minor 4 wave pull back to 4135/4080 as I have shown on my charts.

    I don’t base my wave counts on seasonality charts, but I wanted to point this discrepancy out.

    Have a great weekend.

  3. pugsma said

    Looks like Investors are “all-in” based on the extremely low levels of money market funds vs $SPx.

    https://twitter.com/tommythornton/status/1388192413794115595?s=21

  4. pugsma said

    “Sell In May” except post election years when May is very strong for SP500 gains.

    Same idea as my seasonality chart above.

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1388196741036511234?s=21

  5. MS53 said

    Muchas gracias jefe. Viva PUGSMA !!

  6. pugsma said

    If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you.

    On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211.

    Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability).

    So higher targets for minor 3 at minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 = 4277 are still in play next week.

    4249 is a +1.6% gain from Friday’s 4181 close by next Thursday, May 6th.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1387883382391164929?s=21

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