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April 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2021

1:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4211 to 4198, dropped to 4179 and then traded sideways…

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO is trading down at -10 from +13. The NYMO as been drifting lower from a +33 peak 4 at the beginning of April. This is a negative divergence with the higher SP500 price closes. This a potential negative for the SP00 going forward near-term.
  2. VIX: The VIX is trading high by 4.7% at 18.43. The VIX has been trending higher since mid-April, which is a positive divergence with the higher SP500 price closes. This is a potential negative for the SP500 going forward near-term.  
  3. Chart PatternNone.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 peak close of 4211 on April 29th.

Seasonality: Seasonality agrees with the primary (white/green) wave count of P1 peak in July/August.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 likely topped today at 4219. Next is a minor 4 wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 4135 to 4080 is next. From there, one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4341 to 4396 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368. Note: The minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 likely topped at 4219. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3931 to 3743. From there, one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4219. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “April 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I just updated the TSLA 60-min chart in the 2021 CCA.

  2. pugsma said

    I just want to point out that IF you believe in the 4-year Presidential Cycle Chart Seasonality Chart, the primary (white/green) count is still in the middle of the minor 3 of major [5] and thus the higher minor 3 target at 3277, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1, is on tap for early May, not a minor 4 wave pull back to 4135/4080 as I have shown on my charts.

    I don’t base my wave counts on seasonality charts, but I wanted to point this discrepancy out.

    Have a great weekend.

  3. pugsma said

    Looks like Investors are “all-in” based on the extremely low levels of money market funds vs $SPx.


  4. pugsma said

    “Sell In May” except post election years when May is very strong for SP500 gains.

    Same idea as my seasonality chart above.


  5. MS53 said

    Muchas gracias jefe. Viva PUGSMA !!

  6. pugsma said

    If you like bullish very short-term stats here is one for you.

    On Thursday the $NYSE closed up 5 days in a row with the $SPX close at 4211.

    Over the last 5 years this condition has led to the $SPX closing on average 0.9% higher than 4211, which is 4249, 31 of 33 times (94% probability).

    So higher targets for minor 3 at minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 = 4277 are still in play next week.

    4249 is a +1.6% gain from Friday’s 4181 close by next Thursday, May 6th.


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