April 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2021
1:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4211 to 4198, dropped to 4179 and then traded sideways…
Market Technical Notes:
- NYMO: The NYMO is trading down at -10 from +13. The NYMO as been drifting lower from a +33 peak 4 at the beginning of April. This is a negative divergence with the higher SP500 price closes. This a potential negative for the SP00 going forward near-term.
- VIX: The VIX is trading high by 4.7% at 18.43. The VIX has been trending higher since mid-April, which is a positive divergence with the higher SP500 price closes. This is a potential negative for the SP500 going forward near-term.
- Chart Pattern: None.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 peak close of 4211 on April 29th.
Seasonality: Seasonality agrees with the primary (white/green) wave count of P1 peak in July/August.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 likely topped today at 4219. Next is a minor 4 wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 4135 to 4080 is next. From there, one more push up for minor 5 to a minor 5=1 target of 4341 to 4396 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. The major [5]=0.62[1] target is 4368. Note: The minor 4 wave remains valid above the minor 1 high at 3984.
The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 likely topped at 4219. Next is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3931 to 3743. From there, one more push up from major [5] to a major [5]=0.62[1] target of 4388 to 4567. Note: breaking below the 3984 level invalidates the primary (white/green) wave count and confirms the alternate (blue).
The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4219. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib target at 3464.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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