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April 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 26, 2021

9:20 am EST: Based on all the internals and technical/sentiment extremes, there is little doubt that the SP-500 is topping out now or soon. It’s only a matter of how it will top.

Primary (white/green) count: Year 2021 Scenario, P1-C3 at 4534 then P2 at 38% Fib 3644.

Alternate (blue) count: Year 2010 Scenario, major [3]-P1-C3 at 4242, major [4] at 3759, major [5]-P1-C3 at 4800 then P2 at 38% Fib of 3809.

Alternate (red) count: Year 1983 Scenario, P1-C3 at 4244, P2 at 38% Fib of 3464.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

34 Responses to “April 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    To believe in the SP-500 Primary (white/green) wave count you must believe in “this time is different” and the SP-500 will continue to ramp +10% higher than in years 2010 or 1983, because of all the excess Federal Reserve liquidity and Fiscally stimulus.

  2. pugsma said

    I really like the blue (year 2010) and red (year 1983) counts. But until 4118 is broken below, the move higher has legs.

  3. pugsma said

    I’m posting this again in case some might have missed it over the weekend. It’s important that everyone watch this video.

    I don’t often promote other technical analysts, however this video is so important it is required viewing by everyone here at PUG SMA. In this video Mr Ciovacoo shows why the present day in April 21, 2021 is tied technically to the market extremes of April 2010 (I’ve been showing this since January) and August 1983. At no other time in market history, except those two cases and now, has the market hit these extremes across a wide variety of key indicators. What happened next? At most a 2 to 3% gain (4300 Max), then a -15% drop (to 3655 basis 4300) in both cases. The Nasdaq drop was -23%. What then followed those drops was the condition of a massive 5+ year secular bull market The April 2010 case agrees with my alternate (blue) wave count of major [3]-P1-C3 topping at 4194 to 4242 and a major [4] pull-back to the 38% Fib at 3725. The August 1983 case agrees with my new alternate (red) of P1-C3 topping between 4194 and 4242 and a P2-C3 pull baba to the 38% Fib at 3433. Could this time be different and with all the extra Fed liquidity and fiscal stimulus and the SP500 will squeeze even higher to 4444 to 4535 fir the P1-C3 top per my my primary (white/green) count? Absolutely. Just be aware a give back phase is likely near. https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1385750791856836611?s=21

  4. pugsma said

    The VIX has been rising since the initial 4191 high last week. The VIX is forming a +DIV wrt the rising SP500 to 4194. This is negative for the SP500 and a potential sign of a topping area.

  5. pugsma said

    Let’s take a poll see which wave count the subscribers think will win out:

    https://linkto.run/p/MBDQNKDM

  6. Don Patterson said

    100% red

  7. pugsma said

    The above poll showed that 83% of some of most bullish subscribers on planet (PUG SMA) are bearish in the intermediate term.

    • LightBearer86 said

      Green and Red almost equal now, contrarian trade in trouble 😉

      • pugsma said

        Doesn’t work that way. Both the blue and red are intermediate bearish, and they are still at nearly 80% of votes. The contrarian trade is clearly up via green count.

  8. pugsma said

    $TSLA looks interesting heading into earnings tonight.

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1386767622495252482?s=21

  9. Denali92 said

    There are many things that are super impressive about this market. The one that I have not commented on recently is that the market continues to also follow the persistent path that was seen in the post election years of 2013 and 2017.

    The 2012 post election rally paused for a proper pullback on 22-May-13 (post opex) after 187 days and a 25.5% rally.
    -The pullback was 33 days and 8%

    The 2016 post election rally lasted by far the longest – it was super PERSISTENT and the pullback to the 20 week MA was brief. The rally lasted 277 days until 8-Aug-17 and carried the market 19.5% higher.
    -The pullback lasted just 13 days and was less than 3%, but it did carry the market back to the 20 week MA as the market’s momentum had stalled in June and July.

    This 2020 post election rally is the strongest of all with a 29.6% rally. It has lasted 178 days so far…..
    -So it has 100 days before it exceeds the post 2016 election rally….

    This week and next week will be important tests for the market given the 2010 analog that Pug has highlighted and also the challenges of the early May tops in 2011, 2012 and 2019.

    Whenever this persistent market does have its pause / pullback to the 20 week MA or lower, the important thing to remember is that after that pause / pullback, it is likely the next persistent rally will begin and it is one you will not want to miss. I must admit I have no strong view of whether that pause / pullback will begin in the next month (eg following 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019…) or whether it will continue on till some time in to Q3 like in 2017.

    -D

    • Jim Guthery said

      Hopefully, it follows the Democratic path. The 2017 path was republican without the same headwinds. I would rather take the medicine now.

  10. pugsma said

    Mike Wilson is on CNBC calling for a middle-cycle -10-20% correction.

    Seems everyone has this same call.

    Only the PUG SMA primary (green) count 4534 summer target and Tom Lee call for 4440 by June go against this growing consensus.

    • Jim Guthery said

      Ugh!

    • pugsma said

      It’s EXTREMELY hard to get a correction when all strategists and analyst are calling for a correction. Pain trade is up!

      • Denali92 said

        Completely agree with you on this point.

        Unless there is an unexpected catalyst, the pullbacks will be shallow unless possibly the dollar gets very strong and rates go higher – these have been two tailwinds for the market in April.

        -D

  11. pugsma said

    AMD initial chart added to 2021 CCA. AMD earnings tonight after the close.

  12. pugsma said

    NIO initial daily chart added to 2021 CCA. NIO earnings on Thursday.

  13. pugsma said

    Called it:

    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1387061971921510403?s=21

  14. pugsma said

    PINS initial daily chart added to the 2021 CCA. PINS reports after the close today.

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