April 22nd, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 22, 2021
5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4173 to 4170, quick dropped to 4158, rose to the day’s high of 4180 and dropped to 4124 and closed at 4135.
Observation: Both the SP-500 and QQQ held the Tuesday lows (just barely), so the minute (4) wave could still be in place as labeled. However, if they both need to correct further there are minute (4) targets are 4097/4064 and 332.74/328.28
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
40 Responses to “April 22nd, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”
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pugsma said
FYI the 4063 and 328.28 lower minute (4) targets on SP500 and IWM would complete small head and shoulders patterns.
kazoom1618 said
It looks like we missed that +DIV on NYMO vs SPX, as SPX closed higher by 0.04 !
pugsma said
Yes it was very close.
pugsma said
OT: Biden is missing a great opportunity here. He should listen to AOC and Warren and raise LT Capital Gains tax to 99% on the wealthiest 1%. Give the money to other 99%, so they can live care free. This is the way…
pugsma said
SP500 daily MACD went bear cross at the close today.
Cobra says big red SPY outside day bar with volume surge is bearish.
Might have some chances to hit that 4063 target or test the 4020 to 4034 gap.
kurt.ove.ler said
Thanks!
Short term downside seems limited right now both in the Primary and blue count, right?
If I read the two counts right, SPX should not much lower than 4000 points short term?
pugsma said
Alt (blue) count is calling for a major [4] correction that could be a deep as the 38% Fib at 3725 basis major top at 4191 to 4246. That’s a -11% correction that many think is coming this summer.
pugsma said
Point being is the the alt(blue) count has at most 1% more upside from 4191 to 4246 and a -11% down side risk to 3725.
So IF you believe in the year 2009-2011 correlation and what most strategists and technical analysts think is a -10% summer correction, then the alternate (blue) count should be your guide.
pugsma said
The AAII Weekly Sentiment data came it at 53% Bulls and 20% Bears this week.
The NAAIM weekly exposure index has been 96% positioned long the past two week.
So very few are positioned for a -10% correction at this time. That means that IF a correction begins it will likely be much deeper than most expect as too many will be off sides.
pugsma said
With Bitcoin (BTC) big sell-off this past week, I expect we will start to see some chatter about this being a SP500 topping indicator. Tom McClellan posted a chart in March 2021 showing that BTC tends to lead the SP500 selloffs by 5 trading days.
https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1367868657045413890?s=21
pugsma said
If the Head and Shoulders (double top at 4191 and 4180) with neckline at at 4118 is going to play out to the down side target of 4045, then they should sell a rise to 4152 area today.
pugsma said
Here is another free chart, this time for COIN that is purely speculative since there is now enough chart history to make a valid technical analysis work-up.
https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/PUG-COIN-15-min-4-23-21.jpg
pugsma said
At 4170 at 11am EST, the SP500 has real shot so satisfy this weekly Cobra stat from last Friday.
“Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week: SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high. 67% chance to close above 4185 and 82% chance to make a higher than 4192.”
pugsma said
Almost like clockwork, there has been a last hour Friday afternoon ramp for back many weeks.
TIMOTHY CREEDON III said
Does Cobra have a stat IF/When this week’s stat is fullfilled? In other words, is there a high probability for next week to also be positive?
pugsma said
He’ll likely post something like that AFTER this week closes. Must close above 4185 to have a 5th consecutive positive week.
pugsma said
SP500 will likely close today near 4200 and gap up to the iii-(5) target (shown on 15-min chart above ) at 4224 next Monday.
No need post a Friday update. Fresh new all-time highs next week looks likely.
Have a great weekend !
pugsma said
My big picture SP500 targets at 4242 to 4246 shown on the 60-min chart are going up to set some key indicator (RSI and MCAD) -DIV on the SP500 daily chart. So enjoy the last 1% before a bigger correction for minor 4 (primary) or major [4] (alt blue).
sk001 said
thanks Steve have a nice evening and weekend.
Denali92 said
This is consistent with no significant tops in April…. with the exception of that one in 2010 – on the Monday before the Fed meeting.
If there is going to be a pullback of more than few days, next week’s Fed meeting and AAPL earnings have been catalysts for pullbacks, as have the first few trading days of May.
Interestingly, for the month of May, the high or low for the month is made just under 50% of the time during the first four trading days of the month. Last year, it was a pullback low, in 2019 it was a high and in 2018 it was a low…. something to keep in mind for the week after next.
The last day of the week has been AMAZING during the last 5 weeks – super impressive.
Have a good weekend!
-D
pugsma said
No 5th up week! But a new, weekly higher high at 4194 vs 4192 (satisfying the 82% probable cobra stat).
Next week stats weren’t all that impressive if this 5th week close up:
From Cobra About the next Monday.
1. Up 1 day, the next day has 53% chances to close up.
2. Up 5 weeks in a row, the next week has 44% chances to close up, 71 chances to make a higher high.
3. Down 1 week, the next week has 60% chances to close up.
4. Monday has been mixed recently.
pugsma said
Oh and Cobra gives the double top at 4292 and 4194 only a 50% chance of breaking down below 4118 to the 4044 target.
pugsma said
All the major averages (SPY, DIA and QQQ), expect for IWM (up slightly) closed down slightly this week.
If you have more money in your account at the end of this week (like I do) pat yourself on the back as a solid chop trader. 🙂
I’m flat going into next week. I’ll keep day trading these markets, as I honestly believe the alt (blue) count still has some decent probability here.
Also there is the possibility of an alt(red) count with a P1-C3 top at 4194 to 4242, since there are now 5 distinct waves up from the major [4] low at 3723. I’ll add that to charts next week.
pugsma said
Cobra calling it a weekly SPY DOJI on volume surge means distribution this past week.
Could mean bigger down side ahead.
Cobra’s call of a daily SPY DOJI on volume surge last Friday led to a couple “days” Monday/Tuesday sell-off.
Weekly SPY DOJI should lead to multiple weeks of selling. We shall see…
Jim Guthery said
Can you do a% of probability for alt blue. I did manage to pull off a green week this week. Thanks in part to a green energy pop.
pugsma said
I don’t give probabilities other than to say the primary is at least slightly favorable over either the other two alts.
But since will be two alts (blue) and (red) calling for a major to primary degree top here at 4194 to 4246, it’s more likely a key top is near.
pugsma said
The SP500 at 4180 is up from 3757 or 11.2% year to date.
I just ran the numbers on my investing and trading accounts for 2021.
Investing account is up +15.1%
Trading account is up +48.2%.
I can sit it out in cash for awhile and see how this market handles the sell in May to pay Federal income taxes and protect gains sentiment.
I think there will be great trading set-up develop by June.
pugsma said
Oops I divided the trading account gains by the end value today not the beginning value on Jan 1st. It’s up +93.3% 😎
pugsma said
My goal I’m end investing account is to beat the SP500 performance annually.
My goal in the trading account is to double my money annually. But it’s net value only 10% value wrt to my investing account. Trading Gains are used to pay ordinary things likes expenses, vacations, taxes etc. So I keep pruning it back to remain at roughly 10% of the investing account.
pugsma said
And to be clear in my investing account I do index level trading (based in my wave counts) with SPY, QQQ and IWM around core positions in order to attempt to beat the overall index gains.
In the trading account I trade the 2021 Custom Chart Archive charts. I rarely trade the indices in my trading account.
pugsma said
I also use options occasionally in my trading account and NEVER use options in my investing account.
Just some insight in how I keep my TA and keep risk manage under control in investing versus trading.
droc14 said
I hope this shows up with this link. If not im sure someone can repost. All time cumulative high on the NYAD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
pugsma said
While new NYSE A-D Cumulative highs are nice at a new high, they are not a great topping indicator. The biggest tops of the last 3 years in 2018, 2019, and 2020 all came with a new NYSE A-D cumulative high.
I’d look more at your daily NYMO, RSI and MACD -DIV that is developing.
droc14 said
Thanks for the note. Sorry i should have been clear…it was more of a bullish post. And the link doesn’t work unfortunately.
pugsma said
The best use of the NYSE A-D Line cumulative in trading the SP500 is when it breaks out to a new high well ahead of the SP500. The SP500 will almost 100% follow.
pugsma said
I don’t often promote other technical analysts, however this video is so important it is required viewing by everyone here at PUG SMA.
In this video Mr Ciovacoo shows why the present day in April 21, 2021 is tied technically to the market extremes of April 2010 (I’ve been showing this since January) and August 1983. At no other time in market history, except those two cases and now, has the market hit these extremes across a wide variety of key indicators.
What happened next? At most a 2 to 3% gain (4300 Max), then a -15% drop (to 3655 basis 4300) in both cases. The Nasdaq drop was -23%.
What then followed those drops was the condition of a massive 5+ year secular bull market
The April 2010 case agrees with my alternate (blue) wave count of major [3]-P1-C3 topping at 4194 to 4242 and a major [4] pull-back to the 38% Fib at 3725.
The August 1983 case agrees with my new alternate (red) of P1-C3 topping between 4194 and 4242 and a P2-C3 pull baba to the 38% Fib at 3433.
Could this time be different and with all the extra Fed liquidity and fiscal stimulus and the SP500 will squeeze even higher to 4444 to 4535 fir the P1-C3 top per my my primary (white/green) count? Absolutely. Just be aware a give back phase is likely near.
https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1385750791856836611?s=21
pugsma said
So in summary the other two times in history that the market internals and extremes look like today were August 1983 and April 2010, both had very little upside left (+2-3%) and then led to -15% corrections for the SP-500.
So If the market were to follow the existing Primary (white/green) count to 4535 (+8.5%) it would be something new and likely lead to an even bigger correction.
pugsma said
I actually like the year 1983 scenario best with a P1 top hear at 4194 to 4242 and the P2 correction to a 38% Fib of 3433.
Jim Guthery said
Would that scenario be an alt Red?
pugsma said
Yes. See that SP500 updated charts published just now.