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April 20th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 20, 2021

4:25 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped down from 4163 to 4159, dropped to day’s low at 4118 and closed at 4135.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 is headed for the 4277 target, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (3) wave completed at 4191. The minute (4) wave should pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4135/4098 and likely ended today at 4118. Assuming minute (4) completed at 4118, the minute (5) wave should target (5)=(1) at 4242 to complete the minor 3 wave. There should then be a minor 4 of major [5] shallow pull-back to the 23% Fib at 4180 followed by minor 5 rally to the major [5]-P1 top at 4441, where minor 5=1 to 4535, where major [5]=0.78[1]. Ultimately, major [5] should reach the 4500 area in a late summer 2021 and can not exceed 4764 so as major [5]<[3], since major was [3]<[1].

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 is headed for the major [3]=1.23[1] target at 4246. Within the minor 5 wave, the minute (3) wave completed at 4191. The minute (4) wave should pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4114/4063 and could have completed today at 4118 or will bounce to 4155 for x-(4) then drop to 4082 for w-(4) . Once minute (4) completes, the minute (5) wave should target (5)=0.62(1) at 4225/4275 to complete the minor 5 wave. From there a major [4] pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3951/3759 to be followed by a major [5] wave to a P1 top in the spring of 2022, where [5]=[1] at 4800 to 4992.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

18 Responses to “April 20th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    If you want to know if the minute (4) wave by both counts is in place at 4118, then watch for a leading indicator NYSE A-D line cumulative close at a new high.


  2. pugsma said

    FYI for the primary (white/green) count the minute (4) of minor 3 dip to 4118 yesterday was the lowest level on the protected path to 4534 P1-C3 top. Minor 4 will only dip to 4180 after minor 3 at 4277.

    • pugsma said

      IF the primary count continues to be correct (as it has for 7 months now), that was your last chance to load the boat.

    • pugsma said

      CNBC paraded out Tony Dwyer to call for a -10 to -15% correction in the exact day (yesterday) that 4118 key low was set on the primary wave count path to at +10% upside move to 4534.

  3. pugsma said

    I see a potential small IHS on SP500 with head at 4118, neckline 4163 abs target at new all-time high at 4208.

    • pugsma said

      And the SP500 IHS broke above the 4163 neckline just like I expected with new all-time highs next up. It’s good to be the king!


    Is the Russell (TNA), NASQAC (TQQQ), SPX (UPRO), or DOW (UDOW) your ‘preferred’ vehicle to “ride” this next leg up?

    • pugsma said

      I’m charting SP500, IWM and QQQ here every day so you can see each of those targets clearly on my charts.

      • pugsma said

        Simple math based on primary (white/green) targets on my charts:

        SP500: 4163 to 4534 => +8.9%
        QQQ: 338 to 362/380 = +7.1%/+12.%
        IWM: 221 to 257 = +16.3%

  5. pugsma said

    Hopefully the next week CNBC can line a few more talking heads calling for a -10% to -15% correction.

  6. pugsma said

    Remember this Cobra stat from last Friday. Could have make you a lot $ buying the 4118 dip yesterday 😎

    Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week: SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high. 67% chance to close above 4185 82% chance to make a higher than 4192.

  7. sk001 said

    Steve a quick question.. how useful is the options max pain in gauging market moves?

    • pugsma said

      There was a time in the early days of my blog 2009-2012 that I attempted to use monthly Max Pain Options data in my TA toolbox. But I could never really see how it helped out, so I stopped using it.

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