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April 20th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 20, 2021

4:25 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped down from 4163 to 4159, dropped to day’s low at 4118 and closed at 4135.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 is headed for the 4277 target, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (3) wave completed at 4191. The minute (4) wave should pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4135/4098 and likely ended today at 4118. Assuming minute (4) completed at 4118, the minute (5) wave should target (5)=(1) at 4242 to complete the minor 3 wave. There should then be a minor 4 of major [5] shallow pull-back to the 23% Fib at 4180 followed by minor 5 rally to the major [5]-P1 top at 4441, where minor 5=1 to 4535, where major [5]=0.78[1]. Ultimately, major [5] should reach the 4500 area in a late summer 2021 and can not exceed 4764 so as major [5]<[3], since major was [3]<[1].

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 is headed for the major [3]=1.23[1] target at 4246. Within the minor 5 wave, the minute (3) wave completed at 4191. The minute (4) wave should pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4114/4063 and could have completed today at 4118 or will bounce to 4155 for x-(4) then drop to 4082 for w-(4) . Once minute (4) completes, the minute (5) wave should target (5)=0.62(1) at 4225/4275 to complete the minor 5 wave. From there a major [4] pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3951/3759 to be followed by a major [5] wave to a P1 top in the spring of 2022, where [5]=[1] at 4800 to 4992.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

18 Responses to “April 20th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    If you want to know if the minute (4) wave by both counts is in place at 4118, then watch for a leading indicator NYSE A-D line cumulative close at a new high.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  2. pugsma said

    FYI for the primary (white/green) count the minute (4) of minor 3 dip to 4118 yesterday was the lowest level on the protected path to 4534 P1-C3 top. Minor 4 will only dip to 4180 after minor 3 at 4277.

    • pugsma said

      IF the primary count continues to be correct (as it has for 7 months now), that was your last chance to load the boat.

    • pugsma said

      CNBC paraded out Tony Dwyer to call for a -10 to -15% correction in the exact day (yesterday) that 4118 key low was set on the primary wave count path to at +10% upside move to 4534.

  3. pugsma said

    I see a potential small IHS on SP500 with head at 4118, neckline 4163 abs target at new all-time high at 4208.

    • pugsma said

      And the SP500 IHS broke above the 4163 neckline just like I expected with new all-time highs next up. It’s good to be the king!

  4. TIMOTHY CREEDON III said

    Is the Russell (TNA), NASQAC (TQQQ), SPX (UPRO), or DOW (UDOW) your ‘preferred’ vehicle to “ride” this next leg up?

    • pugsma said

      I’m charting SP500, IWM and QQQ here every day so you can see each of those targets clearly on my charts.

      • pugsma said

        Simple math based on primary (white/green) targets on my charts:

        SP500: 4163 to 4534 => +8.9%
        QQQ: 338 to 362/380 = +7.1%/+12.%
        IWM: 221 to 257 = +16.3%

  5. pugsma said

    Hopefully the next week CNBC can line a few more talking heads calling for a -10% to -15% correction.

  6. pugsma said

    Remember this Cobra stat from last Friday. Could have make you a lot $ buying the 4118 dip yesterday 😎

    Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week: SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high. 67% chance to close above 4185 82% chance to make a higher than 4192.

  7. sk001 said

    Steve a quick question.. how useful is the options max pain in gauging market moves?

    • pugsma said

      There was a time in the early days of my blog 2009-2012 that I attempted to use monthly Max Pain Options data in my TA toolbox. But I could never really see how it helped out, so I stopped using it.

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